Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 152131
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
331 PM MDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A strong cold front moved in earlier today bringing windy
conditions and very cold temperatures. Temperatures are running 20
to 30 degrees below normal. Cloudy skies are expected to continue
over the next few days keeping us cooler. Another cold front is
expected to reach the Borderland next Saturday. This will keep
temperatures below normal for a few more days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A strong cold front moved through the region last night. Strong
winds were felt in portions of the west slopes of area mountains.
In addition, temperatures drop well below normal for the season,
between 20 to 30 degrees below normal. Cool weather is expected to
continue this week as an upper level closed low pressure persists
over Arizona. This upper low keeps bringing moisture and
maintaining a cloud deck over us. As a result we are going to keep
observing temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees below normal
through the week.

The front brought a bit more moisture to the region, but we are
not very unstable east of the Rio Grande. This morning`s sounding
had negligible amounts of instability with PW values near three
quarters of an inch. These values are not very ideal for
precipitation, but the dynamics of the upper trough and cold front
will keep the rain chances especially in the western zones.
However, the higher elevations of area mountains, like the
Sacramentos, could have some snow as temperatures are in the
upper 20s and lower 30s, and orographic lifting will aid on the
development of weather in those areas.

By mid-week the closed low becomes an open trough as it moves
towards the four corners area. Drier air will be able to move in
which could give break to sunlight to pass through the clouds and
warm the region. This will reduce the chance for rain showers
areawide.

On Saturday another cold front moves in. This one is weaker
than last nights front. However, the position of the renovated
closed low off the coast of Baja California sets a plume of
moisture from the south into the Southwest Deserts and increasing
our rain chances. And breezy conditions will be expected with
this front too.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 16/00Z-17/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT015-025 SCT-BKN030-050 through period with some
patchy areas of BKN015-025, especially on eastern side of area
mountains Isolated lowland -SHRA and mountain -SHRASN are
expected overnight and becoming scattered after 12Z. East to
northeast winds of 10-20G30KTS will continue through period with
strongest winds on western mtn slopes and west of divide near
KLSB.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much cooler air is here to stay for the first part of this week with
just a gradual warm-up expected later in the week. The temperatures
of 10 to 25 degrees below normal will keep relative humidities above
40-50 percent all week long. A persistent upper low off to the west
of the area will keep a daily chance for light rain showers going
through the next week with some light snow possible in the highest
mountains over the next 24 to 36 hours. Winds will remain out of the
east to northeast at 10 to 25 mph through Wednesday before starting
to decrease late this week. Mixing heights will remain fairly low
which will keep vent rates poor to fair.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 37  49  38  52 /  20  30  20  20
Sierra Blanca           33  43  36  45 /  30  30  20  30
Las Cruces              35  49  37  51 /  20  30  20  20
Alamogordo              35  51  38  54 /  20  30  30  30
Cloudcroft              26  37  27  40 /  30  50  50  40
Truth or Consequences   34  50  37  51 /  20  40  40  30
Silver City             36  43  34  46 /  20  40  30  20
Deming                  37  49  37  50 /  20  40  30  20
Lordsburg               38  50  37  52 /  20  30  10  10
West El Paso Metro      36  47  39  51 /  20  30  20  20
Dell City               32  47  36  50 /  20  30  20  30
Fort Hancock            34  48  38  52 /  30  30  20  30
Loma Linda              35  42  34  44 /  20  30  10  20
Fabens                  37  49  37  52 /  20  30  10  20
Santa Teresa            36  49  38  52 /  20  30  20  20
White Sands HQ          36  49  39  51 /  20  40  30  20
Jornada Range           36  49  39  52 /  20  40  30  20
Hatch                   35  50  38  52 /  20  40  30  20
Columbus                37  49  38  51 /  20  30  20  20
Orogrande               35  49  38  52 /  20  30  20  20
Mayhill                 26  37  28  39 /  30  50  50  40
Mescalero               27  39  29  42 /  20  30  40  40
Timberon                27  37  29  41 /  20  40  40  30
Winston                 30  42  30  42 /  40  60  50  30
Hillsboro               31  46  34  47 /  30  50  40  30
Spaceport               34  50  37  51 /  20  30  30  20
Lake Roberts            30  44  30  46 /  20  40  30  20
Hurley                  37  44  34  45 /  20  40  30  20
Cliff                   36  54  32  52 /  20  50  20  10
Mule Creek              38  51  34  52 /  30  60  20   0
Faywood                 35  44  35  45 /  30  40  30  20
Animas                  38  49  37  52 /  20  30  10  10
Hachita                 36  47  35  50 /  20  40  20  20
Antelope Wells          37  48  35  52 /  20  20  20  20
Cloverdale              35  45  34  49 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418-420.

&&

$$

29-Crespo/26-Grzywacz


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