Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 200943
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
343 AM MDT Mon Aug 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across New Mexico and west Texas this
morning with slightly cooler but more moist air moving into the
region. This will result in a few showers and thunderstorms
across the Borderland today and tonight. High pressure aloft will
produce seasonably warm mostly dry weather Tuesday through
Wednesday with most of the thunderstorm activity occurring around
mountain locations. Showers and thunderstorms will spread into the
lower elevations beginning on Thursday as moist unstable air flows
back into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front is moving westward across southern New Mexico
and west Texas early this morning and should reach the Arizona
border by noon. Behind the front east to southeast winds will
advect slightly cooler but also a more moist unstable air mass
into the region. Thus by late afternoon the precipitable water
will be mostly from 1 to 1.2 inches while surface dewpoints above
50 F support MUCAPE`s around 1000 J/kg. Surface heating and
upslope flow will initiate convection mainly around mountain areas
in the early afternoon with further heating plus outflows causing
some storms to spread into the lowlands late this afternoon and
this evening. Locally heavy rains will be the primary weather
hazard given the available moisture plus the slow storm movement
due to weak flow aloft. However CAPE and DCAPE values also suggest
a potential for small hail and stronger downbursts.

By Tuesday morning upper high center will be located over central
New Mexico with this feature drifting slowly east into central
Texas by Wednesday. Associated subsidence will stabilize air mass
with circulation around the high also steering deeper moisture to
the south away from the CWA and into Arizona. Consequently expect
seasonably warm mostly dry weather lower elevations Tuesday and
Wednesday with storm coverage mainly around the higher mountains.

By Thursday combination of surface and upper high to the east over
central Texas plus desert heat low west of the divide will
generate deep southeasterly flow across the CWA with moisture
transport from the south. By Friday afternoon the precipitable
water will be from 1.2 to 1.5 inches most areas while surface
dewpoints exceed 50. Air mass should become more unstable with
CAPE`s again around 1000 J/kg. Models also suggest possible
embedded waves in the flow entering the CWA from the south.
Overall pattern therefore favors an increase in convection later
periods.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 20/12-21/12z.
A few areas of MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibility in showers and
thunderstorms mostly from 20z-06z. Otherwise VFR conditions with
skies SCT-BKN060-100. Surface winds around 10-20KT except for
gusts up to 45KT near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across New Mexico and west Texas this
morning with slightly cooler but more moist air moving into the
region. This will result in a few showers and thunderstorms
across the Borderland today and tonight. High pressure aloft will
produce seasonably warm mostly dry weather Tuesday through
Wednesday with most of the thunderstorm activity occurring around
mountain locations. Showers and thunderstorms will spread into the
lower elevations beginning on Thursday as moist unstable air flows
back into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 96  75  96  74 /  20  20   0   0
Sierra Blanca           91  68  92  69 /  20  20   0   0
Las Cruces              94  70  94  69 /  10  20   0   0
Alamogordo              92  68  93  69 /  20  20  10   0
Cloudcroft              68  50  71  53 /  50  30  40  10
Truth or Consequences   94  70  93  69 /  10  20   0   0
Silver City             89  59  87  62 /  20  40  30  10
Deming                  95  68  94  69 /   0  20   0   0
Lordsburg               95  68  95  69 /   0  20  10   0
West El Paso Metro      94  74  94  73 /  10  20   0   0
Dell City               93  68  97  70 /  10  20   0   0
Fort Hancock            96  72  96  72 /  20  20   0   0
Loma Linda              89  68  91  68 /  20  20   0   0
Fabens                  96  69  95  71 /  10  20   0   0
Santa Teresa            95  73  94  73 /  10  20   0   0
White Sands HQ          93  69  94  70 /  20  30   0   0
Jornada Range           94  67  94  69 /  20  30   0   0
Hatch                   96  68  95  69 /  10  20   0   0
Columbus                96  71  95  71 /   0  20   0   0
Orogrande               92  71  94  71 /  10  20   0   0
Mayhill                 76  56  80  57 /  40  40  30  10
Mescalero               79  56  80  58 /  40  30  40  10
Timberon                78  54  80  58 /  50  30  30  10
Winston                 86  55  86  58 /  20  30  20  10
Hillsboro               92  65  91  65 /  10  30  10   0
Spaceport               93  67  92  68 /  10  20   0   0
Lake Roberts            87  52  84  57 /  30  40  30  20
Hurley                  90  62  88  64 /  10  30  20  10
Cliff                   94  57  92  64 /  10  30  30  10
Mule Creek              94  59  90  65 /  10  30  20  20
Faywood                 90  65  89  65 /  20  40  10   0
Animas                  95  68  96  68 /   0  20  10  10
Hachita                 96  68  95  68 /   0  20   0   0
Antelope Wells          91  65  92  66 /  10  20   0   0
Cloverdale              88  64  91  64 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash


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