Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202111
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
211 PM MST Sun Jan 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Monday will be very warm with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
above average. But we will also be very windy in the afternoon,
with patchy areas of blowing dust. For Tuesday through Friday we
will be dry, but with high temperatures running 5 to 7 degrees
below average. Next weekend looks nice with seasonal temperatures
under mostly clear skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
After a quiet, but beautiful weather day on Sunday, we are going
to see some active weather on Monday. Currenntly the upper level
ridge that has brought us the nice and warm weather to the region
today, will be moving east tonight. In its wake will be an upper
level trough that will dash across the Four Corners region on
Monday. This trough will be too far north to give us any
precipitation chances on Monday, but it will give us another
round of strong winds. We will see the usual double whammy of wind
makers to give us gusty and dusty afternoon winds. A decent lee
side trough will develop over southeast Colorado and strong winds
aloft, in the form of a 150+ mph jet will both combine to give us
strong winds by early Monday afternoon. The strongest winds will
be in area mountains were we have a high wind warning (35 to 45
mph) in place, while in the lowlands we have a wind advisory (25
to 35 mph) in place. Along with the strong winds we will see our
high tempertures running 10 to 15 degrees above average (some
lowland locations may hit 70) and we could see some patchy areas
of blowing dust.

On Tuesday, the upper level trough will dive toward the southeast
and will brush across the northern parts of the area. We will see
a slight chance for snow in area mountains above 6,000 feet early
on Tuesday. Any snow that does fall will be light. The rest of us
will be dry, but cool, with our high tempertures running 5 to 7
degrees below average. For the rest of the coming week we will be
cool but dry. We will see a slow warming trend as the dry
northwest flow aloft keeps our temperatures a little below average
through Thursday. Late on Thursday a weak upper level trough and
back door cold front will move across New Mexico, but neither of
these features looks to affect our weather much. For the start of
next weekend we will see more dry weather with our high
temperatures finally getting back up to average for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/00Z-22/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT250 through period. Winds will be light and variable to
start period but by 12Z start to shift to the south to southwest at
5-15KTS then  increase out of the west to southwest at 20-30G40KTS
at all terminals with onset earliest west and north. Some areas of 1-
3SM BLDU possible after 20Z along and south of KDMN-KALM line.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong upper level trough will be approaching the area tomorrow and
bring some strong winds, similar to Friday. Temperatures will be
warmer with relative humidities at or slightly below 15 percent over
eastern areas.  This could result in some critical fire conditions
developing over areas east of a Deming to Truth or Consequences
line. As the trough moves east, much colder air will move into the
region with highs dropping about 15 to 20 degrees for Tuesday with
most locations sturggling to get much above the lower 50s with
highest mountain elevations remaining below freezing with even some
light snow possible in the Sacs. Dry northwest flow will dominate
the pattern for the remainder of the week with high temperatures
gradually warming through the 50s over the lowlands with winds
generally under 15 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 38  72  37  52 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           35  74  35  50 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              34  70  33  51 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              34  66  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              30  49  16  27 /   0   0   0  20
Truth or Consequences   33  67  32  48 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             35  58  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  32  68  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               32  67  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      37  71  37  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               34  73  34  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            36  76  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              35  69  33  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  35  74  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            35  71  34  51 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          36  69  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           31  69  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   32  70  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                33  71  32  51 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               34  70  32  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 36  60  25  35 /   0   0   0  20
Mescalero               33  57  22  34 /   0   0   0  20
Timberon                35  57  22  35 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                 31  63  22  41 /   0   0   0  20
Hillsboro               37  65  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               36  68  31  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            26  56  21  41 /   0   0   0  20
Hurley                  30  60  26  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   28  61  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              28  58  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 33  62  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  32  68  31  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 32  69  28  49 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          33  69  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              35  66  29  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM MST Monday for NMZ401-404>413-
     417.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM MST Monday for NMZ402-403-
     414>416.

TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM MST Monday for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

Brice/Grzywacz



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