Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202032
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
232 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Very hot and dry conditions will occur over the region as strong
high pressure aloft remains over the southwestern part of the
country. Afternoon temperatures for the next few days will range
from 101 to 107 degrees for most lowland desert locations. The
hottest area will be in the El Paso Metro and nearby areas. Warm
temperatures will persist through the weekend with slightly cooler
conditions next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure over the desert southwest has resulted in a
large of area of subsidence which is resulting well above normal
temperatures across the region. Locally, afternoon highs are
expected to be in the 101 to 107 range in the lowland deserts
with hottest temperatures centered around the El Paso metro area
and the adjoining Rio Grande valley areas. Mountain areas will
experience very warm temperatures as well but still much cooler
than the 100`s across the lowlands. With overnight lows expected
to remain very warm, an extended period of excessive heat is
possible which is potentially unhealthy for people and animals. A
Heat Advisory will be in effect from Thursday morning through
Saturday morning.

There is very little moisture across the region with sunny skies
and clear nights expected the next couple of days. There will be a
weak intrusion of moisture into the eastern areas of Otero and
Hudspeth counties on Thursday that may result in a few isolated
thunderstorms popping up. Best chance of measurable rainfall will
be along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains on
Thursday afternoon. Even then amounts will generally light and
spotty.

High pressure aloft will weaken somewhat on Saturday and Sunday as
a low pressure system tracks through the northern and central
Rockies. This will cause temperatures to be a few degrees cooler.
However,it will still be hot, with afternoon highs ranging from
100 to 104 degrees for the the lowland deserts. Overnight lows
will also be a few degrees cooler, limiting excessive heat
potential. With the high aloft weakened, a surface westerly flow
ill develop that will lead to low end breezy west winds in the
afternoon during the weekend. Conditions will continue to be dry
as moisture is deflected north and south away from the local area.

Next week will see the high aloft re-establishing itself over the
western part of the country with a weak subsidence flow over a
broad area. In this kind of pattern, modest amounts of moisture
from the south and east may slowly work into the area under the
high. This may lead to a slight increase in thunderstorm chances
later next week, especially over the mountains. Temperatures will
continue to be warm with afternoon highs hovering in the lower
100`s across the lowland deserts.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/00Z-22/00Z
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Ceilings will be
unlimited today and tonight, with a few clouds building on the east
slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. We will see a bit of a
convergence zone across the area today and tonight. Winds east of
the Rio Grande will be 5 to 10 knots from the east. While west of
the river we will see winds of 5 to 10 knots from the northwest.
Winds on both sides of the river will occasionally be gusty this
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper level high pressure will continue to control our weather
through the weekend. This pattern will give us high temperatures 5
to 10 degrees above average, skies will be mostly clear and winds
will stay below critical levels. We could see some gusty winds both
this afternoon and again on Thursday, but the winds should not be to
significant. There will also be a slight chance for rain on the east
slopes of the Sacramento Mountains on Thursday. But, again, the main
theme for the next 4 to 5 days will be dry and hot weather. By
Sunday the upper level ridge will begin to retreat back west. This
will lower our afternoon highs a few degrees, but we will continue
to be sunny and dry through the first part of next week. Min RH`s
will generally range from 5 to 10% in the lowlands through the
weekend to 10 to 25% in the mountains. These very low RH`s look to
continue into the first part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 76 105  78 107 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           72 101  72 102 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              70 103  72 106 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              70 101  72 104 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              56  80  57  84 /   0  20  10   0
Truth or Consequences   71 102  72 106 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             65  99  65  99 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  68 104  69 106 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               67 104  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      76 104  78 106 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               72 103  72 106 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Hancock            75 106  76 107 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              72 100  71 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  73 105  74 106 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            72 104  75 106 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          73 103  75 105 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           68 103  71 106 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   68 104  70 108 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                70 106  71 107 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               73 102  75 105 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 60  87  61  92 /   0  20  10   0
Mescalero               59  88  61  92 /   0  20  10   0
Timberon                60  87  60  91 /   0  20  10   0
Winston                 60  97  61  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               65 100  67 103 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               68 101  69 105 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            57  99  58  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  64 100  65 100 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   60 104  61 104 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              65 103  65 102 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 67 101  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  66 104  69 106 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 67 104  68 106 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          67 104  68 105 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              65 100  68 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Heat Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ418-
     419-423.

&&

$$

04/15 Lundeen/Brice



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