Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 181117
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
517 AM MDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The chilly, cloudy weather will continue today with a few rain
showers also possible. A series of upper troughs will move across
the Desert Southwest Friday into Tuesday, giving much of the
Borderland a chance of rain into Wednesday. This should rid us of
the low clouds, though higher cloudiness will be around much of
the time. Temperatures will also moderate and could be back to
normal levels by the mid portion of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Pattern change still in order for the CWA beginning over the
weekend as the Pacific blocking ridge breaks down. We still have
to get to the weekend though and today still looks like yet
another chilly, cloudy day. RGB Nighttime imagery continues to
show pretty widespread ST/SC cloud deck, with a few breaks in
downslope areas. Models continue to show increasing chance of
showers later today as sub tropical moisture moves up from the
south. Deepest of the moisture plume should remain east of us, but
WV imagery does show some thinner ribbons of moisture to the west
of the plume that will drift over us today into Friday. Thus area
wide POPs in the forecast, with best chances east of the Rio
Grande Valley. Temperatures today once again well below normal,
but should warm slightly on Friday.

Positively tilted trough ahead of the Pacific ridge will continue
nearly stationary, spawning another cut off low over the northern
Baja later Friday. This will continue to draw up some sub tropical
moisture into our area over the weekend for a continued chance of
showers. Back door front into the area Saturday night will cool
Sunday back down a bit, along with an increase in east winds
Sat/Sun.

As this low begins to lift out Monday, a disturbance associated
with a 100+kt jet rotates around the low for one last shot at
showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Trough moves through mid day
Wednesday as flow become more progressive, and should bring an
end to the chance of showers. Temperatures should continue to
moderate and could reach normal levels either day. Both GFS/ECMWF
now bringing tropical feature eastward instead of west out to sea,
but both show the feature reaching south Texas east of the Big
Bend Wednesday or Thursday. A warmer more progressive pattern
should fill out the rest of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/12Z-19/12Z...
Low VFR ocnl MVFR will continue today as widespread BKN/OVC
070-080 persists. Some increasing layers above to 150 with isold
-SHRA. Best chance of showers is east of the Rio Grande Valley. A
 few areas of 1-3SM BR CIGS AOB 010 until 16Z.

East winds 10-15 kts through most of period. Some gusts of 25-30
kts along west slopes of terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread cloud cover will continue across the area, driven by
southeast flow between upper level low pressure over the four
corners and high pressure aloft over the gulf states. A few breaks
possible later today. A chance of showers will generally continue
through Wednesday, though no heavy rainfall is expected.

Temperatures will remain chilly today and then warm up some but
still below normal. By Tuesday or Wednesday of next week
temperatures could be back to normal. Min RHs should remain above
50% through the weekend. Vent rates will remain poor for the most
part but could briefly become fair in the afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 58  49  66  53 /  20  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca           56  42  63  46 /  40  20  10  20
Las Cruces              56  44  64  48 /  20  20  10  10
Alamogordo              57  44  65  47 /  40  30  20  10
Cloudcroft              45  37  50  38 /  50  40  30  20
Truth or Consequences   57  44  64  47 /  30  20  20  10
Silver City             50  42  57  45 /  20   0  10  10
Deming                  56  44  64  49 /  20   0   0  10
Lordsburg               59  44  65  50 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro      58  47  65  52 /  20  10  10  10
Dell City               56  45  65  48 /  40  20  20  10
Fort Hancock            62  48  68  51 /  30  20  10  20
Loma Linda              52  44  61  48 /  40  20  10  20
Fabens                  61  47  67  51 /  20  10  10  10
Santa Teresa            57  45  65  51 /  20  10  10  10
White Sands HQ          56  46  64  49 /  20  20  10  10
Jornada Range           56  45  64  47 /  20  20  20  10
Hatch                   57  45  66  48 /  20  20  20  10
Columbus                60  46  65  51 /  20   0   0  10
Orogrande               57  45  64  49 /  40  20  20  10
Mayhill                 47  40  56  40 /  50  30  20  20
Mescalero               49  41  57  41 /  40  30  30  10
Timberon                47  41  55  41 /  50  30  30  20
Winston                 51  38  59  39 /  30  20  20  20
Hillsboro               53  42  62  44 /  30  20  20  20
Spaceport               56  43  64  46 /  30  20  20  10
Lake Roberts            54  38  62  40 /  20  10  20  10
Hurley                  52  41  59  45 /  20   0   0  10
Cliff                   58  37  68  43 /  10   0  10  10
Mule Creek              58  39  66  45 /   0   0  10  10
Faywood                 52  43  60  46 /  30  10   0  20
Animas                  61  44  64  49 /   0   0   0  10
Hachita                 58  43  64  48 /  10   0   0  10
Antelope Wells          62  43  64  48 /  10   0   0  10
Cloverdale              60  45  64  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17 Hefner



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