Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 151001
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
401 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture from a tropical disturbance will flow into southern New
Mexico and west Texas while upper disturbances and a surface low
move across the region. This weather pattern will generate
widespread shower and scattered thunderstorm activity tonight and
Saturday. A few areas may experience heavy rainfalls with possible
flash flooding. Drier air will flow into the region on Sunday
resulting in warmer mostly dry weather Sunday and Monday. Moisture
will flow back into the area after Monday resulting in a few
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms for the remainder of
next week along with seasonably warm temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper high aloft will reform over eastern Texas by this afternoon
while deep very slow moving upper trough axis becomes aligned
through Great Basin southward into Baja. Resultant circulation
will include a deep southerly wind component into the southwestern
United States with abundant inflow of tropical moisture including
water vapor associated with remnants of Hurricane Bud. Surface
dewpoints will rise above 50 F and even exceed 60 in some areas by
Saturday morning. Consistent with this will be a surge in
precipitable water which will increase to around 1.3 to 1.6 inches
by 12z Saturday.

Several embedded upper waves are expected to eject to the
northeast into the CWA ahead of primary trough to the west tonight
and Saturday. In addition a surface trough will also extend
through the area causing low level convergence. These factors plus
upslope flow over high terrain should provide sufficient and
persistent upward forcing resulting in widespread precipitation
tonight and Saturday. Saturated lapse rates plus extensive cloud
coverage will limit instability with CAPE`s remaining below 1000
J/kg most locations through Saturday. K indices will be elevated
however with values around 40. In addition southerly winds around
30 kts will exist at 700 mb providing rather strong moisture
flux. Thus expect areas of heavy rainfalls spreading west to east
tonight and continuing into Saturday. Heaviest rains look to be
in the west where higher terrain will augment forcing. Thus have
issued a flash flood watch for this area.

Westerly winds behind upper wave will advect warmer drier air
into the CWA late Saturday afternoon and evening resulting in warm
temperatures and mostly dry weather Sunday and Monday. However
New Mexico and far west Texas will remain between high pressure
aloft to the east and upper low to the northwest while surface
thermal low remains over the western United States. This scenario
and resulting circulation will transport sufficient moisture to
support a few mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms later
periods.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 15/12z-16/12z.
A few areas of MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibility in showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibility
will become more widespread after 00z as showers and thunderstorms
increase across the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture from a tropical disturbance will flow into southern New
Mexico and west Texas while upper disturbances and a surface low
move across the region. This weather pattern will generate
widespread shower and scattered thunderstorm activity tonight and
Saturday. A few areas may experience heavy rainfalls with possible
flash flooding. The risk of flooding will be especially high
around burn scar areas. The fire danger should also diminish by
Saturday afternoon due to widespread rainfall. Drier air will flow
into the region on Sunday resulting in warmer mostly dry weather
Sunday and Monday. Moisture will flow back into the region after
Monday resulting in a few mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms for the remainder of next week along with seasonably
warm temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 97  74  79  68 /   0  60  70  20
Sierra Blanca           94  69  81  65 /   0  40  60  30
Las Cruces              95  69  74  62 /  10  70  70  20
Alamogordo              94  71  77  63 /  10  30  70  20
Cloudcroft              72  53  55  48 /  40  30  70  30
Truth or Consequences   94  70  76  62 /  10  70  70  20
Silver City             86  62  66  56 /  20  70  80  30
Deming                  94  67  75  59 /  10  70  70  20
Lordsburg               91  64  73  59 /  20  70  70  20
West El Paso Metro      96  74  77  68 /   0  60  70  20
Dell City               97  71  83  64 /   0  20  60  30
Fort Hancock            98  74  84  68 /   0  60  60  20
Loma Linda              92  69  75  62 /   0  50  70  20
Fabens                  97  71  80  65 /   0  60  70  20
Santa Teresa            95  70  77  65 /   0  70  70  20
White Sands HQ          95  74  75  66 /  10  50  70  20
Jornada Range           95  69  74  61 /  10  60  70  20
Hatch                   96  69  76  60 /  10  70  70  20
Columbus                95  70  76  62 /  10  70  70  20
Orogrande               96  73  76  66 /  10  40  70  20
Mayhill                 79  58  64  53 /  40  30  70  30
Mescalero               80  58  64  52 /  40  30  70  30
Timberon                79  57  63  52 /  40  30  70  30
Winston                 86  58  67  52 /  20  80  80  20
Hillsboro               90  63  69  56 /  20  70  80  30
Spaceport               93  68  73  60 /  10  60  70  20
Lake Roberts            84  54  64  49 /  30  80  80  30
Hurley                  87  61  67  55 /  20  70  70  30
Cliff                   91  56  68  51 /  20  80  80  30
Mule Creek              89  60  67  56 /  10  70  70  20
Faywood                 88  64  68  57 /  20  70  70  30
Animas                  91  62  74  59 /  20  70  70  30
Hachita                 92  63  74  58 /  20  70  70  30
Antelope Wells          90  63  72  59 /  20  90  70  30
Cloverdale              86  62  68  58 /  20  90  70  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon
     for NMZ401>406-408.

TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



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