Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221214
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
514 AM MST Tue Jan 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
There will be a chance for light snow in the Sacramento Mountains
today otherwise we will be dry, but with noticeably cooler
temperatures. Today`s high will be 5 to 8 degrees below average.
We will be dry through the end of the week with high temperatures
continuing to run a few degrees below average. For next weekend we
will continue to see dry, but cool weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level trough that brought very strong winds and some
blowing dust to the area yesterday, continues to linger in the
region today. The upper level trough itself is centered just to
the east of the Four Corners region with the axis of the trough
extending back to the southwest into Arizona. The trough will
continue to slowly drop to the southeast. As the troughs drops
south, it will help push colder air into the region behind a cold
front and it will give the Sacramento Mountains a chance for some
light snow. Temperatures today will be 20 degrees cooler than
Monday`s highs, which will put them 5 to 8 degrees below average.
The precipitation will be confined to the Sacramento Mountains
where they might pick up an inch or two of snow above 7,000 feet
by the end of the day.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper level trough will have
finally moved off to our east and we will be under a dry and cool
northwest flow. We will see our highs creep up, but stay a few
degrees below average, by Thursday. Late in the day on Thursday a
weak back door cold front will push across the region and cool our
high temperatures for Friday and Saturday a couple of degrees.
Then late on Saturday we will see yet another cold front move
into the area which will continue to keep our high temperatures a
few degrees below average. By next Monday we will see our high
back to near average as our dry weather continues. Looking just
beyond the current forecast package, both the extended GFS and EC
indicate that a strong cold front will move into the region on
Tuesday knocking our temperatures back well below average for next
Tuesday and Wednesday. Winter is not over with us yet.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/12Z-23/12Z
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Our strong
overnight winds will continue to slowly weaken. We will still see
breezy and gusty winds mainly east of area mountains like at KELP
through most of the morning hours. But by the afternoon the winds
will have slowed. The winds this morning will be from the west at
27015G25KT, but come around to the north at 35010KT by the late
afternoon as a cold front moves across the area.

There will be a chance for some lower ceilings and light snow in
the Sacramento Mountains today, but the rest of the area will be
dry with ceilings at or above 10,000 feet.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level storm system and associated cold front were moving
across the area today. This upper level system will be mainly
dry, except in the Sacramento Mountains where we could see a
chance for an inch or two of snow. The associated cold front will
bring noticeably cooler air into the region today. For the rest
of the week we will be dry with occasionally cooler air pushing
into the region. The strong winds that we saw yesterday have
lasted into the morning hours for locations east of the mountains.
These winds will continue to weaken as we move into the late
afternoon. For the rest of the week the winds will be less than 10
MPH, except late on Thursday and again on Saturday when stronger
and gustier winds move across the area with a pair of weak back
door cold fronts. Min RH`s will stay at or above 20% across the
area through at least Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 52  27  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           50  26  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              52  26  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              47  25  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              28  13  35  18 /  30  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences   49  26  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             44  23  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  52  24  54  26 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               50  24  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      51  28  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               53  21  54  26 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            54  26  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              48  26  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  53  26  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            52  24  51  28 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          50  27  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           50  18  52  24 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   52  24  54  27 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                52  25  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               48  24  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 37  17  47  23 /  20  10   0   0
Mescalero               36  16  43  19 /  20  10   0   0
Timberon                38  14  42  20 /  30  10   0   0
Winston                 44  16  49  23 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               48  22  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               48  21  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            43  16  51  22 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  46  22  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   49  19  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              46  22  51  28 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 47  24  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  50  26  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 50  21  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          50  21  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              47  23  52  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.