Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 161013
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
413 AM MDT Sat Jun 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist tropical air will flow into southern New Mexico and west
Texas today while an upper disturbance and a surface low move
across the region. This weather pattern will bring widespread
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Borderland this
morning into the afternoon. Westerly winds and high pressure
aloft will produce warmer mostly dry weather across the Borderland
Sunday through next week. However sufficient moisture will flow
into the region to produce a few showers and thunderstorms each
day but with most of the activity occurring around the higher
mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
New Mexico and far west Texas remain located between deep upper
trough extending through western Arizona and Baja and high
pressure aloft over the lower Mississippi valley. Resultant
circulation includes a deep southerly wind component which is
transporting very abundant tropical moisture into the CWA. Very
high early morning surface dewpoints range from the mid 50s to mid
60s most locations with precipitable water well above normal at
around 1.3 to 1.6 inches. Air mass only marginally unstable due to
moist adiabatic profiles but little inhibition present in deep
moist air mass. Upper wave approaching from the southwest plus low
level convergence induced from surface trough and upslope flow
along mountain slopes all combining to produce widespread rain
showers with possible isolated embedded thunderstorms this morning
which should continue into the afternoon. Air mass will become
more unstable over eastern zones later today so thunderstorms may
become stronger and more widespread around eastern Hudspeth and
southeast Otero Counties.


By late afternoon primary upper trough axis will still be located
through western Arizona but water vapor images and model solutions
indicate a dry slot will be moving around the trough into the CWA.
In addition surface trough will move east of the CWA causing low
level flow to become more westerly. These factors indicate drier
air will flow into the region later this afternoon and tonight
causing most of the rain to end. Deep west to southwest winds will
persist into Sunday causing warmer mostly dry weather.

Monday and beyond the CWA will remain located between between
broad trough to the northwest and north and narrow northeast to
southwest oriented ridge aloft just to the south. Resultant
circulation will block inflow of deeper moisture into the region
with subsidence and abundant sunshine supporting seasonably hot
daytime temperatures. Sufficient low level moisture will be
present for mainly isolated mountain thunderstorms otherwise most
of the CWA will stay dry next week.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 15/12z-16/12z.
Widespread MVFR and scattered IFR ceilings and visibility in
widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms through 00z.
After 00Z SCT-BKN040 BKN-OVC100 with a few areas of MVFR or IFR
conditions in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist tropical air will flow into southern New Mexico and west
Texas today while an upper disturbance and a surface low move
across the region. This weather pattern will bring widespread
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Borderland this
morning into the afternoon. This will greatly reduce the fire
danger across the region. Westerly winds and high pressure aloft
will produce warmer mostly dry weather across the Borderland
Sunday through next week. However sufficient moisture will flow
into the region to produce a few showers and thunderstorms each
day but with most of the activity occurring around the higher
mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 85  73  92  70 /  80  20   0   0
Sierra Blanca           87  65  88  67 /  50  40  10   0
Las Cruces              80  62  90  63 /  80  20   0   0
Alamogordo              83  63  90  64 /  80  20   0   0
Cloudcroft              64  51  69  50 /  80  30   0   0
Truth or Consequences   82  63  89  64 /  80  20   0   0
Silver City             71  56  82  57 /  80  30  10   0
Deming                  81  59  89  60 /  70  20   0   0
Lordsburg               79  59  87  60 /  70  40   0   0
West El Paso Metro      83  71  91  70 /  80  20   0   0
Dell City               89  64  92  66 /  60  40   0   0
Fort Hancock            90  68  93  70 /  80  30   0   0
Loma Linda              81  62  87  66 /  80  20   0   0
Fabens                  86  69  93  67 /  80  20   0   0
Santa Teresa            83  65  91  66 /  80  20   0   0
White Sands HQ          81  66  91  68 /  80  20   0   0
Jornada Range           80  61  91  62 /  80  20   0   0
Hatch                   82  60  92  61 /  80  20   0   0
Columbus                82  62  90  63 /  70  20   0   0
Orogrande               82  66  91  68 /  80  20   0   0
Mayhill                 70  57  78  54 /  70  30   0   0
Mescalero               70  55  77  54 /  80  30   0   0
Timberon                69  54  76  54 /  80  30   0   0
Winston                 73  55  82  53 /  90  30   0   0
Hillsboro               75  56  86  58 /  80  20   0   0
Spaceport               79  60  90  62 /  80  20   0   0
Lake Roberts            70  49  80  49 /  80  30  10   0
Hurley                  77  58  83  56 /  80  30   0   0
Cliff                   74  54  86  52 /  80  40  10   0
Mule Creek              75  56  84  57 /  80  40  20   0
Faywood                 77  57  84  58 /  80  20   0   0
Animas                  80  59  88  60 /  70  40   0   0
Hachita                 80  58  88  59 /  70  30   0   0
Antelope Wells          78  59  88  60 /  70  30   0   0
Cloverdale              74  58  82  59 /  70  40   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for NMZ401>408.

TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.