Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171113
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
513 AM MDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An increase in monsoon season moisture brought additional storms
to the Borderland on Thursday, and that trend will continue today
and Saturday. For today, expect afternoon cloud buildups followed
by isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across
Far West Texas and Southern New Mexico. Storms could last well
into the night. This scenario will likely repeat again Saturday.
For Sunday, much drier air pushes in from the north to greatly
reduce storm chances for both Sunday and Monday. Next week we go
back a pattern of seasonally warm days with just enough moisture
to keep isolated storms developing each afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A healthy bump in moisture Thursday morning (PWAT of 1.36" on 12Z
sounding) resulted in a noticeable increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity as we were finally able to keep PWAT over
an inch on the evening sounding. The CAPES and Shears were low so
storms overall were weak, but storm motion was from the SW at only
3kts so deep moisture and slow storms meant areas of heavy
rainfall. That scenario should play out again today, and then
again on Saturday. With high pressure parked over the region,
temperatures yesterday were a fair bit above forecast. Today
should not be that warm, but still a couple to a few degree above
normal would not be a surprise. The upper high mentioned above we
be responsible for keeping most storms sub-severe with minimal
probability for hail larger than pea-sized. However 30-45 mph wind
gusts are possible. The bigger threat will likely be heavy rain
and flash flooding due to slow moving storms.

Saturday night into Sunday morning we rapidly transition to a much
drier airmass as a tight NW gradient develops aloft in response to
a passing upper trough out of the northern Rockies. Our upper high
resettles to the west and deep NW flow drives dry continental air
out of the Great Basin into our region, pushing the moist air to
our southeast. This will could drop our dewpoints 20 degrees, and
our PWATs by 3/4". The resultant weather should be warmer, with a
lot less clouds and very few, if any, storms for Sunday and
Monday. If any storms do develop, they should be over far SE and
SW zones.

Tuesday onward, through the rest of the week, high pressure
resettles back over AZ/NM and stays there for the rest of the
week. Slowly Gulf moisture works back in and allows for a gradual
increase in rain and storm chances through the week. It appears
that temperatures will arm on the warm side of seasonal averages,
as winds stay fairly light. Storms will be mostly isolated and
favor area mountains. The daily pattern should be the typical
sunny morning and mid-days followed by afternoon clouds and late
day and evening storms.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/12Z-18/12Z...
Generally VFR conditions through the period, but with chances for
localized, short-duration, MVFR to IFR conditions in vicinity of
thunderstorms. Thru 20Z skies generally FEW-SCT080 SCT150 SCT-
BKN200 with VSBY P6SM and SW winds AOB 12kts. However ISOLD
lowland to SCT mountain TSRA over lowlands aft 21Z may produce
SCT-BKN060-080 BKN120 OVC200 skies with VSBY reduced to less than
1SM in +RASH, with winds VRB30G45KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased monsoon season moisture is back in place over the region
through Saturday. This should bring an increase in areal coverage
of rain showers and thunderstorms. Thus, isolated to scattered
late afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the region. Near normal mid-August temperatures
each afternoon through Saturday, then a hot day expected Sunday as
the region dries out temporarily. With dewpoints up, min RH will
be well above critical values, with good to excellent overnight
recoveries. Clouds will increase each afternoon with storms
developing first over mountains by mid-day, and then over the
lowlands in the mid to late afternoon hours. Heavy rainfall is
likely with some storms, and thus there is potential for local
flash flooding. Drier air and fewer storms back in the forecast
for Sunday and Monday. Next week looks seasonally warm with
moderate moisture bringing slight chance to chance of daily hit
and miss rain showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 96  74  96  75 /  40  40  30  30
Sierra Blanca           92  70  94  70 /  40  40  40  30
Las Cruces              94  70  95  69 /  30  50  30  30
Alamogordo              93  70  93  69 /  40  40  30  30
Cloudcroft              71  55  73  57 /  60  60  50  40
Truth or Consequences   94  71  95  71 /  30  50  30  30
Silver City             86  64  88  63 /  40  50  50  30
Deming                  94  70  96  70 /  30  50  30  30
Lordsburg               93  70  95  70 /  30  40  30  30
West El Paso Metro      96  74  95  75 /  40  40  30  30
Dell City               96  71  98  72 /  40  40  40  30
Fort Hancock            96  73  97  73 /  40  40  40  30
Loma Linda              91  70  91  70 /  40  50  30  30
Fabens                  95  72  96  73 /  40  40  30  30
Santa Teresa            95  72  95  73 /  40  50  30  30
White Sands HQ          95  71  94  71 /  40  50  30  30
Jornada Range           94  70  96  69 /  30  50  30  30
Hatch                   95  71  97  70 /  30  50  30  30
Columbus                95  71  96  72 /  30  50  30  30
Orogrande               94  73  94  73 /  40  50  30  30
Mayhill                 80  60  80  61 /  60  60  40  40
Mescalero               81  60  82  61 /  60  60  50  40
Timberon                79  60  80  60 /  60  60  40  40
Winston                 86  61  87  62 /  40  60  50  30
Hillsboro               91  66  92  67 /  40  50  30  30
Spaceport               94  69  95  69 /  30  50  30  30
Lake Roberts            85  59  88  59 /  40  60  50  30
Hurley                  88  65  90  65 /  40  50  40  30
Cliff                   91  66  94  65 /  40  50  30  30
Mule Creek              90  66  92  66 /  40  50  30  30
Faywood                 89  66  91  67 /  40  50  40  30
Animas                  93  71  95  70 /  30  40  40  40
Hachita                 93  69  94  70 /  30  50  30  40
Antelope Wells          91  67  91  68 /  30  50  40  40
Cloverdale              87  66  89  66 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14-Bird


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.