Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 181008
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
408 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A quiet weather pattern is expected to prevail through the
forecast period as westerly flow persists across the region. Dry
conditions, seasonably warm high temperatures, and mostly clear
skies will be the story for the coming days. Breezy westerly
winds will continue each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Multiple outflow boundaries from storms to our east have pushed
through portions of the area this morning. As a result, dewpoints
have jumped into the upper 30s and 40s mainly along and east of
the Rio Grande valley, with even a few 50s in El Paso and to the
southeast. Another push of moisture with associated low clouds is
trying to move west into Otero County, but will likely be stopped
by the Sacramento Mountains. These higher dewpoints are expected
to mix out throughout the daytime hours. High resolution models
are showing scattered showers and storms developing just north of
our CWA this afternoon. However, due to the drier air in place and
thus very limited convective potential, any slight chance for
precipitation this evening will remain outside of the Borderland.

Looking beyond today, the words dry, warm, and breezy sum it all
up. Westerly flow will continue keeping the region void of any
precipitation chances. Broad troughing over the western US will
allow daily high temperatures to remain near seasonable levels
through the forecast period. A few 100 degree readings will be
possible across southeastern lowland areas later this week, though
mid to upper 90s will be where most locations top out.

Besides the warmer temperatures, the only other thing of note for
this forecast period will be the breezy afternoons. Persistent
lee-side surface troughing to our east will maintain the gradient
across the area creating breezy conditions for the majority of
the afternoons. Winds will pick up slightly to 20-30 mph later
this week into the weekend potentially creating fire weather
concerns as highlighted in the discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/12Z-19/12Z...
VFR conditions thru the PD at all terminals. Skies SKC-FEW250 for
DMN, LRU, and ELP.  SKC-FEW180 for TCS aft 18Z. VSBY P6SM through
period. Winds generally west to southwest 5-15kts through 18Z then
increasing to 10-20kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A persistence of deep westerly flow across the Southwestern U.S.
will keep southern New Mexico hot and dry through the week, with no
chances of rain or storms seen in the next five days. Daily max
temperatures will run at, or slightly above, mid-June averages; and
as a reminder, June is the hottest month of the year across the
region. Dewpoints will be on the decline, meaning relative
humidities will also be falling. Daytime minimum RH will drop
into the single digits to lower teens. Overnight and morning RH
recoveries will erode and become poor. Winds will tend to be
breezy over most areas for the afternoons. This may lead to
elevated to critical fire weather conditions later in the week and
through the upcoming weekend, as winds of 20 to 30 mph and single
digit RH may be possible. Vent rates will remain very good to
excellent as the deep W to SW flow allows for deep mixing and
strong transport winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 98  72  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           94  65  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              94  63  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              95  64  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              72  49  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   95  65  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             86  57  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  94  59  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               93  57  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      96  70  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               98  63  99  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            98  70  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              91  64  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  98  69  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            95  67  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          94  68  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           94  61  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   95  60  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                95  64  96  63 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               95  65  95  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 83  55  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               82  52  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                80  51  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 88  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               92  57  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               94  59  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            86  47  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  89  55  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   91  49  93  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              89  56  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 89  58  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  94  58  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 94  58  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          92  60  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              87  57  89  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

32-Jpeg/14-Bird


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