Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172228
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
328 PM MST Thu Jan 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A winter weather system moves in tomorrow into the Desert
Southwest, but for the Borderland it will be mostly a wind event.
Most of the precipitation is expected over the area mountains, but
some rain showers are still possible over the lowlands, especially
over the northern areas. Snow levels will be around 7500 feet
which will be enough for an inch of snow in the mountains and a
few isolated areas could get up to 2 inches. On Monday the next
system moves in bringing another wind event. After this system
drier and warmer weather is expected for the rest of the work
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough is moving into the Borderland tomorrow. This
storm system looks drier with each model run. Precipitable water
values look to be in the around 0.25 to 0.50 inches and surface
dewpoints are around 20 degrees ahead of the front. For this
reason, the rain chances over the lowlands don`t look very good
until the Pacific front reaches the area providing some lift, but
activity may be short as very dry air comes right behind it. Snow
levels will be around 7500 feet. This will allow for most of the
precipitation in the mountains to be frozen with amounts near an
inch in the Sacramento Mountains and some isolated locations to
around 2 inches. But again chances are that amounts remain very
light as this system is very dry.

However, the main hazard with this system is the strong winds.
This is due to the development of a strong lee cyclone over the
TX/OK Panhandles and the incoming cold front from the west. The
placement of the jet stream aloft is also aiding this scenario.
Prog soundings over the lowlands show wind gusts up to 45 mph in
the afternoon when as the air mixes on the lower levels. The Sacs
will be able to mix further up leading to gusts up to 55 mph.
In general, expect west winds around 25 to 35 mph with gusts up
to 55 mph. For this purpose, there is a Wind Advisory out for the
whole region.

Once this system moves east into the Southern Plains an upper
ridge takes its place. This will lead to a short warm up period before
the next system moves in on Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF show surface
dewpoints around 20 degrees and PW values around 0.25 inches
meaning that this next system is dry and values behind the
associated Pacific front are even lower. Therefore, I didn`t add
any POPs in the region. Again the main hazard will be strong
westerly winds. But, the synoptic scale pattern with the center
of the lee cyclone in eastern Colorado and the later arrival of
the Pacific front may lead to slightly weaker winds this time as
it would have less dynamic forcing. Also the presence of the jet
stream does not look to be in the right place to aid in the
development of stronger winds.

Starting on Wednesday a warming trend begins again as an upper
ridge sets over in the West Coast and slowly moves east. This will
allow a dry northwest flow over the region. However, temperatures
remain slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/00Z-19/00Z...
VFR conditions with strong winds expected tomorrow afternoon. Winds
begin 240-270 at 05-10KT to start the period. By 08Z tomorrow
morning, winds increasing to 240-270 at 10-15KT increasing to
30G40KT by 18Z. Skies generally P6SM SCT150 BKN250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mostly clear and dry tonight across the area, with seasonably warm
overnight lows. Winds will begin to increase by sunrise, especially
over area mountains.

Strong winds are expected tomorrow afternoon ahead of the arrival of
a Pacific cold front. Winds will peak around 25-30 mph with gusts up
to 40 mph. The strongest winds will likely occur over the Sacramento
Mountains, with gusts up to 50 mph possible. These winds, combined
with RH around 30% will pose a marginal fire weather threat.
However, wet and unfavorable fuel conditions across the area should
limit any threat for wildfires. A few evening snow showers are also
possible on Friday over the Sacramento Mountains.

Looking ahead, no major fire weather concerns until Monday, where
elevated fire weather conditions are possible with near-critical RH,
above normal temperatures, and windy conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 45  63  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           40  63  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              40  60  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              39  58  31  53 /   0  20   0   0
Cloudcroft              30  37  21  35 /   0  40   0   0
Truth or Consequences   38  56  31  54 /   0  10   0   0
Silver City             36  44  29  42 /   0  30   0   0
Deming                  38  58  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               38  55  30  56 /   0  10   0   0
West El Paso Metro      44  61  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               39  63  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            42  66  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              41  57  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  43  64  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            41  62  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          41  60  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           38  59  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   38  60  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                39  61  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               39  60  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 37  46  26  41 /   0  30   0   0
Mescalero               34  44  24  40 /   0  40   0   0
Timberon                33  45  24  40 /   0  20   0   0
Winston                 33  47  24  44 /   0  20   0   0
Hillsboro               37  53  29  51 /   0  10   0   0
Spaceport               37  58  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            32  43  25  46 /  10  40   0   0
Hurley                  37  44  28  43 /   0  20   0   0
Cliff                   34  48  25  51 /   0  30   0   0
Mule Creek              37  48  27  50 /   0  30   0   0
Faywood                 37  45  29  45 /   0  10   0   0
Animas                  38  58  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 36  59  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          39  60  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              39  55  31  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for NMZ401-404>407-
     409>417.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for NMZ402-403-408.

TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

29-Crespo/30-Dennhardt



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