Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 232045
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
245 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of abundant moisture and plentiful dynamics have
come together over the Borderland. This will result in continued
widespread rain shower and isolated to scattered thunderstorm
activity across the region this evening and overnight. Rainfall in
the range of one-quarter to one and a half inches is possible. A
few storms may become strong with moderate to large hail possible.
Rain may linger over areas east of the Rio Grande into Wednesday
before the area dries out in westerly winds for late Wednesday and
Thursday. The rest of the week looks to bring fair weather
conditions with dry weather and near seasonal temperatures. The
next chance for rain looks to come a week away on next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The ingredients have come together quite nicely over the region to
produce widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. A deep fetch of
sub-tropical moisture lies directly over the CWFA with over 200%
of normal PWATs and dewpoint near 60 degrees. The morning sounding
showed the moisture profile to be very deep. This all means
efficient rainfall where it does rain. The next ingredient is
dynamics, and those are plentiful also. A sharp shortwave has been
the responsible feature for all our daytime rain activity as it
has rotated out ahead of a primary Pacific trough to our west.
Aloft there is a weak diffluent flow aloft, along with an 80kt
jet, and incoming PVA. The dynamics and moisture are working
nicely together to help generate widespread rain showers and
embedded thunderstorms. The lack of surface heating, thanks to the
copious clouds, may well keep the storms from reaching severe
limits, although that potential exists thanks to a deep veering
profile with speed shear aloft.

All the above scenario continues through the night as the Pacific
trough slowly approaches from the west and makes a slow pass
across the forecast area through Wednesday mid day. The strong
dynamics will clear the western zones by daybreak, and thus
precipitation/storms are expected to end through the night from
west to east...with showers lingering from the Rio Grande eastward
into the morning hours.

Beyond Wednesday morning it appears most of the region will see
fair weather. We don`t get a complete sweep out of moisture but we
do look to loose a LOT of moisture with PWATs dropping to about
1/2" to 1/3". In addition we lack good dynamics with just a minor
trough hanging back and providing little to no impulses through
the rest of the week. Thus we are expecting/forecasting improved
conditions with few clouds and little to no POPs. The one
exception during this period is the passage of a bit of energy in
a strongly positively-tilted upper trough that drops out of the
Great Basin on Thursday evening. It may be able to produce some
precipitation over our far eastern zones, with the SACs being the
best bet.

This late THU/early FRI trough passage will be our sweeper system
with much drier air pushing in from the N and W for the weekend.
Completely dry forecast with nearly seasonal (slightly above
actually) temperatures. Light winds Saturday, but breezy east
winds for Sunday as a backdoor cool front pushes in from the
Southern Plains to drop temperatures about 5 degrees to start the
next work week.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/00Z-25/00Z...
Upper trough moves through overnight. Showers and thunderstorms
should start leaving the area after 9Z as drier air comes behind the
upper level system. MVFR conditions are possible through the period
as the moist airmass persists in the region bringing more low
clouds. In areas near thunderstorms, IFR conditions could occur by
lower CIGS and VIS due to rain and stronger winds. Mountain areas
may be obscured by very low clouds. Conditions are expected to
improve after 15Z. Winds will be generally light from the east and
southeast.

29-Crespo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper level shortwave trough is moving east during the overnight
hours. This brings numerous showers over most areas with a chance
for isolated thunderstorms. Some of which may be strong in the
western zones with gusty winds and large hail. Rainfall amounts
should be between half an inch to one inch of rain. This could
result in minor flooding of localized areas. Min relative humidities
from today over 60 percent should start decreasing tomorrow into the
40s and 50s as drier air comes from the west, while the eastern
zones remain in the 60s. Therefore, there are only slight chances
for rain over the eastern portions and the mountains.

Drier and warmer air will keep moving in as an upper ridge is
established in the West Coast. Min RH values will be from the upper
20s to the lower 40s. On the meantime, temperatures will go back to
near normal values for the season. This will help our ventilation
rates improve into the fair to good categories as mixing levels
increase through Friday.

29-Crespo

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 53  70  53  75 /  90  20   0   0
Sierra Blanca           49  64  48  72 / 100  30   0   0
Las Cruces              52  69  49  73 /  90  20   0   0
Alamogordo              50  66  49  71 / 100  50   0   0
Cloudcroft              35  50  39  54 / 100  60  10   0
Truth or Consequences   50  69  50  73 /  90  20   0   0
Silver City             46  67  46  69 /  80   0   0   0
Deming                  51  71  50  75 /  80   0   0   0
Lordsburg               51  72  50  75 /  80   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      53  69  52  73 /  90  10   0   0
Dell City               50  67  50  75 / 100  30   0   0
Fort Hancock            53  71  53  76 / 100  20   0   0
Loma Linda              47  64  49  71 / 100  30   0   0
Fabens                  51  71  53  75 /  90  10   0   0
Santa Teresa            52  69  51  74 /  90   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          53  68  52  73 / 100  30   0   0
Jornada Range           52  68  50  72 / 100  30   0   0
Hatch                   52  70  51  74 /  90  20   0   0
Columbus                53  71  51  76 /  70   0   0   0
Orogrande               51  67  51  72 / 100  40   0   0
Mayhill                 39  55  41  63 / 100  60  10   0
Mescalero               40  56  42  61 / 100  60  10   0
Timberon                41  56  42  63 / 100  60   0   0
Winston                 41  65  41  67 /  90  20   0   0
Hillsboro               47  69  47  71 /  90  20   0   0
Spaceport               50  68  49  72 /  90  30   0   0
Lake Roberts            41  67  42  68 /  90  10  10   0
Hurley                  47  68  45  71 /  80   0   0   0
Cliff                   46  72  46  74 /  80   0   0   0
Mule Creek              45  70  48  71 /  80   0   0   0
Faywood                 48  67  46  71 /  80  10   0   0
Animas                  52  73  50  76 /  70   0   0   0
Hachita                 51  72  48  75 /  80   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          51  72  51  74 /  60   0   0   0
Cloverdale              50  71  50  73 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/29



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