Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212114
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
314 PM MDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Very hot conditions will continue to occur across the region.
Strong high pressure remains in place over the area with daytime
lowland temperatures reaching a 100 plus degrees over a wide area.
Despite a modest increase in moisture, most areas will remain dry
with just a few weak thunderstorms over the Sacramento mountains
late this afternoon. Dry and hot conditions will continue into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist over the area well
into next week. Climatologically speaking, this is supposed to be
the warmest time of the year in our area and current weather
conditions are living up to that expectation. A strong area of
high pressure aloft remains in place in the region. Subsidence, or
sinking air associated with the high is helping to increase
temperatures to above normal levels area wide. Most lowland desert
areas will see afternoon highs between 102 and 107 Friday with
only slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday. Warm overnight low
temperatures will help maintain the extended period of excessive
heat. The warmest temperatures are along the Rio Grande valley,
especially in the El Paso metro area. A heat advisory will be in
effect through Saturday night.

While most areas remain dry, a modest amount of moisture did make
it into the eastern portions of Hudspeth and Otero counties last
night. This moisture has fueled a few isolated thunderstorms over
the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains this afternoon.
Slight chances for thunderstorms will continue for a few more
hours in that area with only spotty rain amounts expected.

For the weekend, the high aloft will weaken over the area somewhat
in response to an low pressure system passing well north of the
local area. This will set up a westerly low level flow that will
continue the hot but slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday.
A weak cool front will actually lower temperatures a few degrees
more on Sunday, breaking the hot temperature streak, if only
briefly. Westerly winds on Sunday will also reach breezy levels by
the afternoon.

After the system passes to the east, the high aloft will re-
strengthen over the state and hot 100 degree plus temperatures
will resume over the desert lowlands. The circulation around the
high will suppress most thunderstorm activity for much of the
week. However, long range models to hint at a slight chance of
mainly mountain based thunderstorms toward the latter part of the
week. Chances for rain will increase as we head into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/00Z-23/00Z.
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. ISOLD -TSRA/WND
VRB25G45KT/CIGS BKN110-130 00Z-03Z over the Sacs, rest of eastern
Otero county and Hudspeth county. Isolated CU MDT CU build ups over
higher elevations in the Gila region through 02Z and for both the
Gila region & Sacs again after 20Z Fri.  Winds 270-290/5-10KTS along
continental divide and west through 04Z, then variable through 18Z.
WNW winds 10-15KTS in this area thereafter thru EOP. Winds 130-
170/10-15KTS 01Z-13Z east of the Rio Grande...shifting 180-200 in
this area through 17Z...then 210-260/10-15KTS thru EOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Continued very hot and mostly dry through the period with high
pressure aloft over or just west of the region.  Advection of low
level Gulf of Mexico moisture Thu evening, will result in isolated
high based storms for the Sacs, Hudspeth and remainder of eastern
Otero county through just after sundown.  Mainly afternoon build ups
expected Fri for the Gila region and Sacs, as lesser amounts of Gulf
moisture move in again overnight.  Lowland highs will range from the
upper 90`s to 107.  Mountain readings will range from the high 70s
to middle 80s. Very good to excellent vent rates are expected Friday-
early next week, as the high moves back off over the pacific and
allows northwest flow aloft to overspread the area.  Min RH will
range from the middle teens to single digits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 78 107  79 105 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           72 101  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              73 106  72 103 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              72 104  72 103 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              57  84  60  83 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   73 106  73 103 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             66  99  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  70 106  70 102 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               70 104  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      78 106  78 104 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               72 104  74 106 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            76 106  78 107 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              71 101  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  74 106  75 106 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            76 106  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          75 105  74 104 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           72 106  70 104 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   71 108  71 105 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                72 107  73 103 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               75 105  75 104 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 61  92  64  91 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero               61  92  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                60  91  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 62  98  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               68 103  67 100 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               70 105  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            59  97  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  66 100  67  97 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   62 104  63 100 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              66 102  67  97 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 68 102  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  70 106  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 69 106  70 101 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          69 105  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              69 101  66  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-419-423.

&&

$$

04/22 Lundeen/Tripoli



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