Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 152106
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
206 PM MST Sat Dec 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A lot of clouds expected over the next few days as a couple of
weak troughs move across the region and bring some light isolated
to scattered lowland rain and mountain snow showers. Mostly sunny
and dry conditions return by midweek and continue into next
weekend with temperatures warming to about 5 to 10 degrees above
average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Somewhat active pattern for the next few days, but nothing real
significant expected as a result besides some light lowland rain
showers and some mountain snow showers. Models in decent agreement
on general pattern but do differ on details, especially with
second trough moving through late Mon into Tue. Currently seeing
plenty of high clouds over the area ahead of trough over the Baja
region. This trough will affect our weather through Sunday night
with a few sprinkles possible Sun aftn due to the initially very
dry low levels, but then isolated to scattered showers Sun night,
especially south and east as it lifts northeast across west TX.
Snow levels as system moves through will remain above 7500 feet
and maybe even higher given the source region of trough being
northern Baja. Temperatures will cool down a little for a few days
but should still remain near normal, especially highs with lows
slightly warmer than normal with expected cloud cover.


After first system exits, a second one will move out of the Great
Basin and deepening as it moves over the southern Rockies. Models
seem to have agreement the northern half of CWA will see some
light to moderate precip, but the GFS does develop a second band
in northern Chihuahua and into El Paso and Hudspeth counties
associated with favorable jet streak placement. EC does have this
trough deepening a little more than previous runs but not as
favorable jet dynamics, however, there is some decent PVA. Will
keep best Pops north but put southern areas into a slight chance.
Again not a lot of cold air aloft so snow levels again 7500 ft and
above.

Upper ridge will dominate weather pattern over western U.S. for
the later half of the week which will bring a return to above
normal temperatures to region. Should see mid to upper 60s over
many areas going into Thu/Fri with dry conditions and mostly sunny
skies.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 16/00Z-17/00Z...
VFR conditions expected through the period with high clouds covering
the skies with CIGS BKN-OVC200. Light easterly to northeasterly
winds, usually below 5 kts, plus periods of variable winds in
portions of the forecast area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High clouds coverage will keep increasing through the day as an
upper ridge moves east allowing a shortwave trough to move into the
region with high level moisture from the Pacific. On Tuesday another
upper trough moves through the region. Both systems have slight
chances for rain showers in the lowlands and snow showers in the
mountains. Low minimum relative humidity ahead of these systems will
keep the precipitation amounts in the lower side of the spectrum.
However, expect the minimum values to be in the 30s and 40s on
Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, values should be in the teens and
20s. Vent rates during this part of the week will be improving from
the poor into the good category by Tuesday, but are expected to
deteriorate for the rest of the week. An area of high pressure
builds to the west on Tuesday and it is expected to dominate for the
rest of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 37  59  40  58 /   0   0  30   0
Sierra Blanca           35  59  39  58 /   0   0  30  10
Las Cruces              34  57  38  56 /   0   0  20   0
Alamogordo              31  58  36  56 /   0   0  20   0
Cloudcroft              29  46  26  41 /   0   0  20  10
Truth or Consequences   32  57  34  56 /   0   0  10   0
Silver City             36  55  33  53 /   0   0  10  10
Deming                  30  56  35  57 /   0   0  20   0
Lordsburg               31  58  33  59 /   0   0  10   0
West El Paso Metro      39  58  42  58 /   0   0  20   0
Dell City               30  60  38  59 /   0   0  30   0
Fort Hancock            35  61  39  60 /   0   0  30   0
Loma Linda              36  56  38  55 /   0   0  30   0
Fabens                  34  60  38  59 /   0   0  30   0
Santa Teresa            35  56  38  58 /   0   0  20   0
White Sands HQ          36  57  38  56 /   0   0  20   0
Jornada Range           29  58  33  57 /   0   0  20   0
Hatch                   31  59  34  57 /   0   0  10   0
Columbus                33  56  37  58 /   0   0  20   0
Orogrande               34  58  37  57 /   0   0  20   0
Mayhill                 33  54  31  49 /   0   0  20  10
Mescalero               29  53  29  47 /   0   0  20  10
Timberon                29  51  27  46 /   0   0  20  10
Winston                 26  55  26  52 /   0   0  10   0
Hillsboro               30  57  32  54 /   0   0  20   0
Spaceport               28  58  33  55 /   0   0  10   0
Lake Roberts            23  56  24  51 /   0   0  20  10
Hurley                  29  56  31  54 /   0   0  10   0
Cliff                   26  61  28  57 /   0   0  20   0
Mule Creek              30  57  31  54 /   0   0  10   0
Faywood                 33  56  35  54 /   0   0  10   0
Animas                  31  58  35  59 /   0   0  10   0
Hachita                 26  56  33  58 /   0   0  20   0
Antelope Wells          31  56  32  58 /   0  10  20   0
Cloverdale              35  56  33  56 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

26/29


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