Area Forecast Discussion
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221
FXUS64 KEPZ 191041
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
441 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly Sunny and warmer conditions will prevail today, with high
temperatures around the 70 degree mark across much of the
lowlands. A backdoor front will bring breezy conditions to west
facing mountain slopes Wednesday, and only slightly cooler
temperatures. A slowly-approaching upper level low and an increase
in low level moisture will bring scattered showers to the region
Wednesday night. Scattered thunderstorms are possible Thursday,
especially east of the Rio Grande, where a few storms may become
strong to severe. Drier conditions and slowly warming temperatures
are expected Friday and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A strong blocking ridge of high pressure over British Columbia
will slowly drift into the northern Plains States by Wednesday
morning as the overall pattern over the western 2/3rds of the
CONUS evolves into an omega block. We`ll enjoy benign weather
today and Wednesday as ridging aloft prevails. Temperatures today
will rise to near-average (around 70 for ELP).

A relatively weak backdoor cold front will work in from the
northeast on Wednesday morning, cooling temperatures a few
degrees, and bringing breezy conditions to west-facing mountain
slopes. Easterly flow behind the front will also lead to an
increase in low level moisture, with surface dewpoints pushing
into the upper-30s to lower-40s across much of the area by
Wednesday afternoon, and the lower to middle 40s by Thursday.

Meanwhile, an closed low will develop in the base of the western
trough (part of the omega block pattern) over the lower Colorado
Basin late Wednesday. A lead shortwave trough, most readily
analyzed as a weak thermal mid-level thermal trough, will move
into SW New Mexico Wednesday evening. Most models indicate
elevated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm developing ahead of
this feature, aided by isentropic lift behind the backdoor front.
The chances for precip will quickly shift NE during the overnight
hours.

Thursday afternoon looks a little more interesting as enhanced
easterly flow brings dewpoints into the 40s east of El Paso
(especially over Hudspeth and SE Otero Counties). With increasing
SW flow ahead of the upper low pulling drier air into SW New
Mexico, a surface trough or weak dryline will set up just east of
the Rio Grande. Weak to moderate instability and increasing deep
layer shear will be favorable for scattered thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon, mainly east of the Rio Grande, with a few severe
thunderstorms also possible.

With the upper low and trough lifting into the central Rockies on
Friday, dry SW flow will overspread the area. Drier and overall
more benign weather will persist into early next week, with
temperatures rising a few degrees above normal by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light and variable winds will persist today, along with mostly
clear skies across the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will remain at or slightly below normal through the
week ahead, as a weak backdoor cold front works into the area on
Wednesday, and an upper low develops over southern California.
This upper level disturbance will move mainly to our north as it
lifts across the central Rockies late in the week, but it will
bring a risk of showers to the region Wednesday evening, followed
by a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday, mainly east of the Rio
Grande. Winds through the period will be below critical
thresholds, and RH values will initially get a boost with the
backdoor cold front and precip chances. However, drier air will
start working into SW New Mexico on Thursday and Friday, with
minimum RH values dropping back into the teens. Vent rates will
diminish behind the backdoor front initially, then become quite
favorable, especially later in the week when Very Good to
Excellent conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 70  45  67  48 /   0   0   0  30
Sierra Blanca           65  41  61  43 /   0   0   0  20
Las Cruces              67  43  67  44 /   0   0   0  50
Alamogordo              68  40  67  45 /   0   0   0  50
Cloudcroft              48  29  46  33 /   0   0   0  60
Truth or Consequences   69  40  67  46 /   0   0   0  50
Silver City             62  41  62  43 /   0   0   0  50
Deming                  69  40  70  41 /   0   0   0  50
Lordsburg               69  39  70  41 /   0   0   0  40
West El Paso Metro      69  47  68  48 /   0   0   0  30
Dell City               70  38  64  41 /   0   0   0  30
Fort Hancock            73  47  70  48 /   0   0   0  20
Loma Linda              64  39  60  40 /   0   0   0  30
Fabens                  71  44  68  47 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Teresa            68  43  67  44 /   0   0   0  40
White Sands HQ          67  43  66  48 /   0   0   0  40
Jornada Range           67  38  67  43 /   0   0   0  40
Hatch                   70  38  70  43 /   0   0   0  50
Columbus                70  42  71  44 /   0   0   0  50
Orogrande               67  38  65  43 /   0   0   0  40
Mayhill                 59  30  52  37 /   0   0   0  60
Mescalero               58  31  55  38 /   0   0   0  50
Timberon                55  28  52  32 /   0   0   0  60
Winston                 62  29  60  36 /   0   0   0  50
Hillsboro               67  38  66  42 /   0   0   0  50
Spaceport               68  36  67  41 /   0   0   0  50
Lake Roberts            64  31  63  35 /   0   0   0  50
Hurley                  64  36  64  38 /   0   0   0  50
Cliff                   70  33  70  37 /   0   0   0  50
Mule Creek              65  39  66  42 /   0   0   0  50
Faywood                 64  41  64  41 /   0   0   0  50
Animas                  70  41  71  43 /   0   0   0  20
Hachita                 69  39  70  40 /   0   0   0  30
Antelope Wells          70  43  72  43 /   0   0   0  10
Cloverdale              66  44  67  42 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman



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