Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 241023
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
423 AM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The Borderland has experienced eighteen 100 degree days so far
this year, today will be number 19. Hot and dry conditions
continue and today will make the longest streak of 100 degree
temperatures across the lowlands this year, at 5 days. With no
moisture in place, there will be plenty of sunshine, and likely no
clouds. Despite a breezy winds this afternoon, they won`t bring
relief thanks to the hot temperatures. For the work week ahead we
continue hot, with much of the lowlands recording additional 100
degree highs, but those readings should not be as hot at they were
this past week. A bit of gulf moisture sneaks in from the east to
give some of the far eastern areas a few clouds and slight
chances for isolated storms. By late in the week, a better flow of
moisture looks to move in from the south. This pattern looks like
it could start of the monsoon season for the Southwestern U.S.
Much better, and more widespread, rain and storm chances look
likely for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
No changes of significance for today, from the previous 5 days.
In fact, the lowlands will see their fifth straight day of 100
degree afternoon highs (the longest run of the year). The upper
high has retreated SW and weakened in response to a passing
Pacific trough to our north, but the deep and dry westerly flow
will keep enough desert heat to log another 100 degree day. This
upper trough will again be responsible for a breezy afternoon as a
lee surface trough remains parked to our east. This run of hot,
dry, unstable, and breezy weather will keep our fire danger quite
high, and make for some blowing dust out of our SW playas today.

Monday, upper ridging rebounds a bit over the SW as the upper
trough exits the western states. For most of us this really just
means more of the same; hot and dry, but with less wind. A surface
front does push into the far eastern zones Monday to open those
areas to a easterly wind. This easterly flow will bring with it
some gulf moisture. As it looks now, this moisture will invade the
region to the Rio Grande valley and likely hang there. Thus areas
west of the river will likely continue very dry, while areas to
the east will see a few more clouds, and some slight chances for
storms each afternoon/evening. Thus no POPs west, slght POPs east,
and mostly over the SACs/GUADs. Lowland temperatures area wide
look to top out near the century mark.

Late week we see a significant pattern shift. High pressure
recenters to our east, over the Gulf States, as west coast
troughing, and desert lows develop west. In addition, an inverted
trough looks to be tracking across central Mexico from the Gulf of
Mexico. All of these features work together to substantially
moisten the environment to our south, and pull that moisture
north toward our region. In a word...MONSOON. Yea, it does look
like this could be the start of a flow pattern shift that ends our
persistently dry conditions, and brings in 50+ dewpoints, +1.00
PWATS, loads of daily heat instability, and thus a repeating daily
pattern of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Currently Friday looks like the transition day, with Saturday
being the day the moisture arrives. We`ll be watching this closely
through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/12Z-25/12Z.
VFR conditions thru the PD. P6SM SKC. Winds will be west to
northwest at 10-20G30KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry conditions continue, but there will be a little increase
in low level moisture starting tonight and remaining in place for
the upcoming week. Expect better recoveries at night, but daytime
relative humidities will likely remain in the 8 to 10 percent range
west and up near 15 percent east by Tuesday. Winds will be breezy
today with most locations across the lowlands approaching 20 mph
which will create near critical conditions. After Sunday, winds
look to become much lighter through at least midweek.

A few thunderstorms may develop over the Sacs starting Tuesday
with some storms pushing south from there. A pattern chance for
late week brings increasing moisture from the south...Monsoon flow
begins perhaps. Increasing thunderstorm coverage looks likely
late in the week and next weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 78 100  76 101 /   0   0   0  20
Sierra Blanca           72  97  71  98 /   0  10   0  10
Las Cruces              72  98  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              70  96  72  97 /   0   0   0  20
Cloudcroft              57  79  58  77 /   0  20   0  30
Truth or Consequences   73  98  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             66  94  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  70  99  67 101 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               69  98  67 100 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      77  98  76 101 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City               71  99  70 100 /   0  10   0  20
Fort Hancock            75 100  75 102 /   0   0   0  20
Loma Linda              71  95  70  95 /   0   0   0  20
Fabens                  73  99  72 101 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Teresa            75  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          74  98  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           71  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   71 100  71 102 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                72 100  70 102 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               73  98  74 100 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                 61  83  60  85 /   0  20   0  30
Mescalero               60  85  60  85 /   0  10   0  30
Timberon                61  84  60  84 /   0  20   0  30
Winston                 62  91  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               68  96  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               71  97  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            58  92  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  66  94  65  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   62  98  61 100 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              66  96  65  98 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 67  96  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  69  99  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 68  98  67 101 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          69  98  66 100 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              66  94  65  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ411.

TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for TXZ418-419-
     423.

&&

$$

14-Bird



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