Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

122
FXUS64 KEPZ 251147
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
547 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance aloft will drop down this afternoon through
Wednesday, allowing some thunderstorms to develop today, mostly
over the mountains. A vigorous cool front will also push in
tonight from the east, laying the way for dramatic cooling on
Wednesday. Highs today will be around 5 degrees above normal, but
highs on Wednesday will be some 15 degrees cooler than today.
Isolated thunderstorms will continue and spread to the lowlands.
The rest of the week will be dry with warming temperatures as
high pressure builds back in over the Desert Southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like a quick taste of autumn coming up, and then returning
back to late summer weather. In the short term, long wave trough
over upper Midwest will continue drifting east, with frontal band
of moisture, possibly mostly aloft extending out this trough back
across northern New Mexico to southern California. Back to the
northwest, a short wave associated with a jet streak is rapidly
dropping down the back side of the trough towards our area.
Meanwhile, a surface cool front dropping down the front range of
the Rockies is nearing the Oklahoma Panhandle and far NW New
Mexico.

For today and tonight...the frontal band will come through late
today, adding a bit of deeper moisture to the CWA. This combined
with modest instability, could kick off a few thunderstorms,
mainly over the mountains. Will spread POPs to rest of area
tonight as instability persists. The cool front should reach the
Sac Mtns by later afternoon and then into the Rio Grande Valley by
around midnight. This also could provide a focusing mechanism for
thunderstorms. West slope winds will pick up through the night
time hours, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph, mainly the west slopes of
the Franklin and Hueco mountains.

Wednesday...autumn will drop in for a visit as the cool front
reaches Arizona border by afternoon. Aforementioned short wave
also reaches western New Mexico by early afternoon. This will set
up a strong shear environment. These ingredients should all
combine to kick off more thunderstorms. In fact the shear would
point toward severe potential, but big question is how much
cooling takes place. Prog soundings show convective temperatures
of around 80-83 degrees. Highs are expected to remain in the 70s
most lowland sites-perhaps western lowlands could maintain their
convective temperature. Good rule of thumb--watch today`s high
temps for the Texas Panhandle and our highs for Wednesday should
be around 10 degrees warmer.

Thursday into the weekend...late summer returns upper ridge
aggressively builds in behind exiting trough. Low temps Thursday
morning could be the coolest of the season, with notorious cold
spots like Cliff, Gila Hot Springs, Lake Roberts all briefly
dropping below freezing. Otherwise ridge will allow plenty of
sunshine and quickly recovering temps, with highs back above
normal by Friday.

Beyond Sunday, forecast confidence is a mess as GFS and ECMWF
continue to have significant differences as eastern Pacific
tropical features proves tough to agree on. GFS shows wet
solution Mon/Tue, while ECMWF shows drier solution as tropical
feature has no impact on area. For now will lean to ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 25/12Z-26/12Z...
VFR conditions through forecast period. Skies P6SM SKC-FEW120
FEW250. After 18Z over mountains...isolated BKN080CB -TSRA. These
conditions could develop over the remainder of the area after 22Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increasing moisture today will allow a few thunderstorms to
develop this afternoon, mostly over mountain zones. Thunderstorms
could spread to lowlands tonight as vigorous cool front pushes in
from the east. Much cooler on Wednesday with isolated
thunderstorms continuing. After high temps today above normal,
highs on Wednesday will cool about 10-15 degrees from today. Min
RHs today mostly in the 20s, increasing to 30s lowlands and 50s
mountains on Wednesday. Gusty east winds developing tonight into
Wednesday morning.

Thursday through the weekend looks dry as upper ridge builds back
in. Temps back above normal by Friday and Saturday. Min RHs
returning to the 20s lowlands and 30s mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 90  64  75  55 /   0   0  10  20
Sierra Blanca           88  58  70  50 /   0  10  30  20
Las Cruces              89  60  76  51 /   0   0  10  20
Alamogordo              87  58  75  50 /   0  20  20  20
Cloudcroft              70  42  54  39 /  10  30  30  30
Truth or Consequences   85  57  74  52 /   0  20  20  20
Silver City             82  55  73  50 /   0   0  30  20
Deming                  88  59  77  51 /   0   0  10  20
Lordsburg               86  60  79  54 /   0   0  10  10
West El Paso Metro      89  64  75  54 /   0   0  20  20
Dell City               91  59  71  51 /   0  20  30  20
Fort Hancock            92  63  75  53 /   0   0  20  20
Loma Linda              87  58  70  50 /   0   0  20  20
Fabens                  91  62  75  53 /   0   0  20  20
Santa Teresa            89  61  76  53 /   0   0  10  20
White Sands HQ          89  59  75  51 /   0   0  10  20
Jornada Range           87  59  75  51 /   0   0  10  20
Hatch                   88  59  78  52 /   0   0  10  20
Columbus                89  62  78  52 /   0   0  10  10
Orogrande               88  60  75  51 /   0  10  20  20
Mayhill                 78  47  57  41 /  10  30  30  30
Mescalero               80  48  60  41 /  10  30  30  20
Timberon                79  48  61  40 /  10  30  30  30
Winston                 81  50  71  45 /  10  40  40  20
Hillsboro               84  56  75  50 /   0  40  30  20
Spaceport               86  56  75  50 /   0  10  10  20
Lake Roberts            81  50  72  43 /  10  30  30  20
Hurley                  83  55  75  49 /   0   0  20  20
Cliff                   85  46  79  45 /   0  10  20  20
Mule Creek              84  47  78  47 /   0   0  10  10
Faywood                 84  57  74  50 /   0   0  30  20
Animas                  86  62  80  55 /   0   0  10  10
Hachita                 87  59  77  51 /   0   0  10  10
Antelope Wells          85  59  78  54 /   0   0  20  20
Cloverdale              82  61  77  54 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17 Hefner



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.