Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 211453
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1053 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

VALID 15Z Sat Apr 21 2018 - 12Z Sun Apr 22 2018


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 E KGVX KGVX 20 SSE BYY 30 NW 5R5 30 NNW 62H 10 NW PWG
15 ENE SEP 10 WSW RPH 15 W SPS FSI SNL 25 NE MLC 10 ESE RKR
15 S RUE 15 SW SRC 15 SE SGT 10 ESE MLU ACP 20 SSE KVBS.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
HQZ 35 N PRX 30 W M89 10 E M89 35 N ELD 30 SW ELD 20 SSW SHV
35 SSE PSN 40 NNE LHB HQZ.


1500 UTC update

No changes made to the previous excessive rainfall potential
outlook.

Oravec

...OK / TX / AR / LA...

There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the ARKLATEX
region, extending a short distance into southeast Oklahoma, and
extending farther down into the Piney Woods of east Texas. All in
all, there are some limiting factors today, including high Flash
Flood Guidance values and a narrow axis of marginally strong
instability. Still, there will be some wetting rain early in the
period during warm advection, followed by a diurnal maximum of
rainfall coverage and intensity this afternoon/evening. It is
during the early onset of the afternoon convection, in particular,
that cell mergers and local bouts of training may contribute to
rain rates nosing toward FFG values.

A Marginal Risk area is drawn back up the Red River to about
Wichita Falls and including southern OK / north TX. There may be a
period of relatively slow cell movement during the morning during
the approach of a jet streak rounding the base of the upper
trough, and this could be followed by other heavy showers in the
afternoon dependent upon destabilization beneath increasingly cold
upper level temperatures. Isolated flash flooding is possible
today.

Burke
$$





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