Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 242158
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

VALID 2158Z Tue Apr 24 2018 - 12Z Wed Apr 25 2018


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 N MEB 10 W 45J AKH 10 WNW FQD 35 NNE AVL 15 NNW GEV
10 ENE MKJ 10 SW ROA 10 N HNZ HRJ 10 N MEB.


Shrunk the size of the Marginal risk with this update, with it now
only including much of central NC into portions of southern VA.
Continue to see convection develop this afternoon ahead of the
mid/upper level low, and north of the surface low, over central
NC, where breaks in the clouds and steepening lapse rates have
resulted in instability. While these storms have been moving at a
decent clip, have noted some periodic cell mergers resulting in
localized heavier totals. Overall not anticipating any widespread
or significant risk, however localized flooding concerns are
possible here into the evening hours. Should generally see a
decrease in convective intensity with the loss of daytime heating.
However as the mid/upper level low catch the surface low over NC
overnight, should see a continuation of showers underneath this
deep layer low. Instability by this time will be minimal, however
some slow moving showers in the comma head of the system, along
with a localized heavier convective core or two, could bring some
locally heavy rainfall across portions of northern NC into
southern VA through the overnight hours.

Elsewhere over the east, a general lack of instability is keeping
rainfall rates and totals too low to be considered a flash flood
risk. Should see some heavier rains move into the Delmarva
tonight, spreading into NJ, with 1-2" expected here. However FFG
is higher across these areas, and thus not anticipating rainfall
rates will be high enough to be of much concern for flooding
outside of some possible urban poor drainage issues.

Chenard
$$





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