Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000 FXUS64 KEWX 261132 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 632 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 An upper level trough covers much of the country with its axis extending over west TX. The flow over our CWA is southwesterly. At the surface, a cold front is stretched across the region from near Giddings to San Marcos to Rocksprings. North of the boundary winds are from the north and south of the boundary winds are light and variable. The front will stall before being pushed out toward the east today. There is little lift across this boundary and that will continue to be the case during the day today. It will bring some cooler air to the eastern half of the CWA with highs near ten degrees cooler than yesterday. Drier air over the west will drop relative humidity below 20% and a Rangeland Fire Danger statement will be issued for Val Verde, Edwards, and Kinney counties this afternoon with wind speeds near 15 mph. Tuesday night the weather will remain quiet and seasonally cool. Lows Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday. Wednesday the upper trough axis will move across our CWA and a dryline will move into the area. This combination of features along with daytime heating may produce enough lift to generate some thunderstorms. If storms do form, there should be enough instability and vertical wind shear to produce isolated strong to severe storms. SPC has included parts of Llano, Burnet, and Williamson Counties in a Marginal (1 of 5) risk area. As the boundary layer warms it will become well mixed and this will favor damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. There will also be a chance for large hail with steep mid-level lapse rates. Any convection should end with the loss of heating. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 There is a potential that a few showers and storms linger into the evening on Wednesday. However, it is very low and will not include, at this time. Southerly lower level flow takes hold in response to deepening surface low pressure in the Plains on Thursday bringing a warming and moistening trend through Monday. Temperatures warm to above normal by Friday and continue well above normal through Monday due to upper level ridging. Moisture increases across all areas by Friday with a rather humid airmass Saturday through Monday. A stout surface pressure gradient will enable breezy winds. The next chances of rain are beyond this forecast, possibly as early as next Monday night into Tuesday with passage of a surface front and upper level trough. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Middle and high clouds will form ceilings at times at all area terminals during the next TAF period. Winds during the morning will be from the north at 10 kts or less in the Austin and San Antonio areas. Winds will shift to the east/northeast this afternoon. At DRT northwesterly winds will shift to the west and become gusty later this morning. Then late tonight they will shift to the south.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will continue this afternoon, mainly for Val Verde, Edwards, and Kinney Counties where RH will dip into the teens and sustained wind speeds could briefly approach 15 mph. RH below 20% will extend down the Rio Grande Plains, but winds will be lighter and conditions will be elevated. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will be issued for these counties for today. A repeat of today is expected on Wednesday with a Rangeland Fire Danger statement likely for the same counties. Southerly flow returns on Thursday, however moisture recovery will be delayed until Friday. As a result, another day of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions is expected over the same areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 68 47 72 49 / 0 10 30 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 67 45 72 44 / 0 10 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 46 74 46 / 0 10 30 0 Burnet Muni Airport 65 45 70 46 / 0 10 30 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 55 82 50 / 0 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 45 71 44 / 0 10 30 0 Hondo Muni Airport 76 49 76 46 / 0 10 30 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 45 72 45 / 0 10 30 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 46 70 47 / 0 10 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 73 49 74 48 / 0 10 30 0 Stinson Muni Airport 74 49 75 49 / 0 10 30 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...04 Aviation...05

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