000
FXUS64 KEWX 161719
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1219 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Early morning surface analysis places a Pacific front (really a
dryline) across the Edwards Plateau and it is slowly advancing
eastward. Just ahead of this surface boundary, some upper level
lift/divergence is helping spark some very light returns on radar
across northern portions of the Hill Country. These light showers
and an isolated rumble of thunder will remain possible through much
of the morning as the surface boundary continues to slowly push
east. Otherwise, a cloudy morning can be expected for south-central
Texas with some patches of fog/mist also possible, mainly across
southern portions of the Hill Country and the southern Edwards
Plateau.

The front/dryline will stall across the Hill Country and Rio Grande
Plains this afternoon with temperatures to the west rising well into
the 90s and temperatures to the east only managing the mid 80s due
to the moist airmass in place. On the contrary, moisture will be
severely lacking to the west of the boundary, though winds are
expected to be light. As long as winds to not exceed what is
forecast, we can likely get by without needing to issue a Fire
Danger Statement.

Then overnight into Wednesday, the front/dryline will retreat back
to the west with widespread low level cloud cover redeveloping, with
a chance for some patchy fog/mist across much of the eastern half of
the CWA. The dryline is not expected to push very far east during
the day Wednesday, though temperatures are still expected to climb
into the upper 80s to upper 90s across south-central Texas
regardless. PoPs are not currently in the forecast for Wednesday,
but we will need to monitor the low potential for an isolated storm
or two to develop off the dryline during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A compact upper level low is forecast to briefly pinch off across
Baja California Wednesday and Wednesday night, then open and dampen
across south Texas Thursday and Thursday night. Ahead of this
feature, weak impulses in the west to southwest flow aloft will move
across the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. Isolated, elevated
storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and night across the Rio
Grande Plains, Winter Garden, and portions of the Hill Country, and
possibly surface based convection along the dryline across the
southern Edwards Plateau. Shear and instability parameters could
support isolated strong storms.

As the aforementioned upper level disturbance dampens east across
the area, several GEFS and ECMWF members are also keying in on
Thursday afternoon and evening as another period for isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, potentially farther east
into the I-35 corridor. We will continue to refine rain chances and
strong/severe potential for late Wednesday and late Thursday.
Currently SPC has a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms on
Thursday for much of the area.

Beyond Thursday the forecast has slightly more clarity with the next
cold front and rain chances Friday into the weekend. The initial
cold front looks to make it into north-central Texas Thursday
afternoon and slow, then potentially make it into the northern Hill
Country and central Texas during the day on Friday, and slow again.
Exact placement is low confidence, as convective mesoscale influences
along the front Thursday afternoon and night and again Friday could
play a role on where it ends up. Eventually this could lead to
scattered showers and storms near the front across the Hill Country
and into the Austin metro are Friday afternoon, potentially focusing
out west across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Friday
evening where broad low level convergence resides.

A stronger surge of high pressure to the north is expected on
Saturday, which should drive the cold front through the area Saturday
afternoon or evening. Global model guidance has become more
clustered around this time frame. This will bring an opportunity for
more widespread rainfall to the region. As the forecast is refined
through the week, we will also monitor for severe storm and heavy
rainfall potential Saturday into Saturday night. Much cooler
conditions are forecast behind the front. High temperatures on Sunday
may only range from mid 60s to low 70s for many locations as post
frontal clouds are possible over the shallow cool airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A band of MVFR to IFR ceilings is noted across the Hill Country into
the San Antonio metro and over portions of the Rio Grande Plains.
SAT/SSF will see these ceilings longest but are still forecast to
reach VFR conditions by 21Z. High clouds will linger across the area
through this evening before widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings
redevelop tonight into Wednesday. LIFR conditions are possible
mainly at SAT/SSF for a brief period after 10Z along with some -DZ
or BR at all I-35 sites. Winds look to remain under 12 knots through
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  88  71  89 /   0   0  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  87  70  89 /   0   0  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  89  70  90 /   0   0  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            69  88  70  89 /   0  10  20  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  98  75  99 /   0  20  20  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  87  70  89 /   0   0  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             69  92  69  93 /   0  10  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  88  70  89 /   0   0  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  86  72  87 /   0   0  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  89  70  90 /   0  10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           71  89  71  92 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...17
Aviation...27