000
FXUS64 KEWX 160013
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
713 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Radar returns are likely over achieving what is actually happening at
the surface as a dry layer in the mid levels is evaporating most
activity. However, the returns are allowing for some very isolated
lightning strikes. Added the mention of thunderstorms to the forecast
for the evening hours to account for this.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A powerful surface low will strengthen over the central CONUS this
afternoon, sending a Pacific cold front in our direction overnight
into Tuesday morning. In the meantime, southeasterly surface flow
will increase through this afternoon and result in clouds breaking
with intermittent sunshine over much of South Central Texas.
Temperatures should once again climb into the lower to middle 80s
east of I-35/I-37 and into the upper 80s to lower 90s west of the
interstate. Factoring in dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and
a dryline remaining west of our CWA, heat indices may climb into the
mid 90s for the Rio Grande Plains and southwestern CWA. North of our
region, severe storms look likely for central and north Texas, but
this far south, we should remain capped through the evening hours. A
few strong storms could break through this cap as the front advances
south and eastward, but as of this writing, concerns are very low.
PoPs remain out of the picture for locations outside of the Edwards
Plateau, Hill Country, and Austin metro.

The aforementioned cold front won`t bring any relief to the region
as it will become washed out late Tuesday afternoon along the
escarpment. In fact, temperatures will actually be warmer on Tuesday
than today, with highs ranging from the mid to upper 80s east to the
lower to middle 90s west. Winds will quickly shift back out of the
southeast again Tuesday night, setting the stage for several hot and
humid days at the start of the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A southwest to zonal flow aloft is forecast to prevail from the
middle of the week into the weekend. Several upper level short waves
are forecast to push across South Central Texas through the period.
At the surface, an active dry-line and several frontal boundaries
moving, stalling or pushing back across the local area are forecast
to promote shower and thunderstorm activity for the long term period.

The opportunity for showers and storms starts along the Rio Grande
on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. With the lost of daytime
heating, the convective mode comes to an end but a few elevated
showers can`t be ruled out late Wednesday into Thursday morning
along and southeast of Interstate 35.

Most of the day on Thursday looks dry with showers and thunderstorms
forming in the late afternoon to the east of the dry-line. Some
storms could be strong to severe if they develop across parts of the
southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and along the I-35 corridor.
Forecast soundings show moderate MUCAPE values with inverted V-shape
solutions indicating the possibility of large hail and damaging
thunderstorm downdrafts. This activity could last to late Thursday
night before convection ends.

The dry-line lingers around west Texas on Friday and set the stage
for another round of showers and storms across Val Verde County,
southern Edwards Plateau and the Hill Country mainly on Friday
afternoon through the evening hours.

By Saturday evening, the combination of an upper level short wave
and the passage of a Polar cold front across the local area is
forecast to result in moderate to heavy rain episodes and cooler
temperatures in the wake of the front. Highest storm rainfall totals
could range from 1 to 2 inches across the Hill Country with lower
amounts of half inch or less for the San Antonio metro area and
vicinity and less than one quarter inch for areas along the Rio
Grande.

Sunday`s highs in the wake of the front ranges from the low to mid
60s to mid and upper 70s along the Rio Grande.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

MVFR stratus is already settling in for the I35 sites this evening
and should remain in place through tomorrow. There is a chance we
could see IFR ceilings as well later tonight. Radar returns out west
are likely not reaching the surface with mid-level dry air in place.
However some activity rooted lower in the atmosphere will be possible
later tonight and will mention VCSH for the I35 site later. VFR will
return tomorrow morning with southerly flow continuing. Speeds will
be less tomorrow than they were today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  86  70  90 /  20  20   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  84  69  88 /  20  20   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  87  69  89 /  20  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            68  87  68  89 /  30  20   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  97  70  98 /  20   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  86  69  88 /  20  20   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  85  69  88 /  20  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  83  71  86 /  10  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  87  71  90 /  20  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           70  87  71  90 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...17
Aviation...29