000
FXUS64 KEWX 140747
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

South-Central Texas will fall into a warm and humid regime from
Sunday into Monday with continued southerly low-level flow. Winds
could be occasionally breezy this afternoon but do expect for the
winds to start to intensify the most late within the short term
period from late Monday afternoon into Monday evening as the
pressure gradient tightens thanks to a strengthening surface low
well to our north on the lee side of the Rockies. The flow aloft
trends westerly through tonight as mid-level ridging remains
centered to our south over Mexico. The flow then turns gradually
more southwesterly through Monday with the influence of the trough
entering the Four Corners region.

Afternoon highs will range from the mid 80s to the mid 90s while
morning lows for Monday morning will bottom out only from the mid
60s into the low 70s. Low stratus into this morning should erode
into partly to mostly sunny skies. The low stratus will return
overnight tonight into Monday morning. With wind speeds still up
some overnight, low stratus will remain favored compared to fog
Monday morning. Clouds looks to be slower to erode into Monday
afternoon and could yield to a slightly cloudier day with partly
sunny skies compared to this afternoon. Area rain chances will
remain minimal through 00 UTC Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

An upper level low near the Four Corners Monday will move east into
the central Plains on Tuesday. This will drag a Pacific cold front
east, overtaking the dryline and moving into the southern Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande early Tuesday morning, eventually stalling
near the Interstate 35 corridor Tuesday afternoon. Upper level
forcing will be far removed to the north of the region, and forecast
soundings indicate a very strong cap in place across south-central
Texas. Therefore, any precipitation along and ahead of the front is
mainly expected to be isolated low-topped showers. One exception may
be a low probability of an isolated storm or two off the dryline or
higher terrain of Mexico making it into the southern Edwards Plateau
Monday evening. A second exception may be across the northeast
forecast area mid to late Tuesday morning, mainly Lee, Bastrop and
Fayette counties, where some weakening of the cap may take place. If
the later were to take place, we would have to watch for the
potential of a brief window of low-topped, rotating storms mid to
late Tuesday morning in this region given the low level
shear/helicity parameters in place. SPC currently has a Level 1 out
of 5 risk for severe storms across portions of the southern Edwards
Plateau for Monday night as well as across the northeast forecast
area for Tuesday.

Behind the weak Pacific cold front, much drier air will filter into
the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande where
single digit to lower teen RH values are forecast in the afternoon.
West to northwest wind speeds are forecast around 10-15 mph with
gusts around 25 mph across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio
Grande, and when combined with the drought-stressed fuels and the
very low RH values will result in near-critical fire weather
conditions. The dry air in place will also allow for warm afternoon
high temperatures Tuesday, into the low 90s across portions of the
Hill Country and mid to possibly upper 90s toward the Rio Grande.
The stalled front is forecast to move back northwest Tuesday night,
but potentially waffle back east as a dryline Wednesday afternoon
into the northern Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country, resulting in continued dry and warm conditions.

Beyond Wednesday the forecast confidence remains low. In general
global models have backed off on the polar front Thursday into
Friday, now delayed until sometime over the weekend. There remains a
large spread in the guidance on when. Rain chances next weekend will
likely increase eventually at some point as details of the next
system and cold front emerge over the upcoming week. As the forecast
is refined we will also monitor for severe storm and heavy rainfall
potential next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Overnight tonight will continue to see increasing and expansion of
low stratus with MVFR ceilings developing at the I-35 TAF sites
(KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) by 08 UTC and for KDRT around 13 UTC. Expect
conditions to improve to VFR by around midday where KDRT and KSSF
improves slightly earlier than KSAT and KAUS. Light to moderate
southerly to east-southeasterly winds prevail with winds generally
between 5 to 15 knots with occasionally higher gusts. MVFR ceilings
will redevelop at the 30 hr TAF sites (KAUS and KSAT) during the
overnight into early Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              84  66  84  69 /   0   0   0  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  83  65  83  68 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     86  66  85  69 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            83  65  82  67 /   0   0   0  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           94  71  96  70 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        83  66  83  68 /   0   0   0  20
Hondo Muni Airport             88  67  89  67 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        84  65  84  67 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   82  67  83  70 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       86  67  86  69 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           86  67  87  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...76
Aviation...Brady