000
FXUS64 KEWX 170552
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1252 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 814 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The dryline continues its retreat westward with a humid airmass in
place to the east of the boundary. Latest hi-res models are coming in
a bit more pessimistic on fog for tonight within the airmass and
have expanded the mention of fog for much of the area tonight. Can`t
completely rule out some dense fog as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A Pacific front/dryline is draped across the Hill Country into the
Rio Grande Plains, with a few showers noted ahead of this feature
across the eastern Hill Country and I-35 corridor. Spotty
precipitation chances will end late this afternoon. With low level
cloud cover slow to break up, did have to lower highs for this
afternoon over the I-35 corridor and coastal plains although these
locations are still expected to reach into the 80s. The dryline
retreats back west tonight with low level moisture bringing another
night of low clouds, and possibly some fog or drizzle, by morning.
Cloud cover will keep lows warm again tonight ranging from the upper
60s to mid 70s areawide.

The dryline remains relatively stagnant on Wednesday and is expected
to remain west of South Central Texas. While low cloud cover may
lift in the afternoon, high clouds will remain through the day. Hot
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and 90s are expected with
another night of warm overnight lows Wednesday night. While
confidence is low for storm development tomorrow afternoon and
evening, did include some low chances for precipitation in the
forecast (15-20 percent) as some CAMs indicate a few isolated storms
may form along or ahead of the dryline and move east towards the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

An upper level short wave near Baja California Sur is forecast to
push to the east and opens as it moves over central Mexico on
Thursday. Other pulses of energy aloft moving along a southwest to
west wind flow are forecast to help with convective initiation. Any
storm that develops have the potential to become strong to
marginally severe across parts the Rio Grande, southern Edwards
Plateau, Hill Country, I -35 corridor and Coastal Plains. Currently
SPC has a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms on Thursday with
mainly hazards being large hail and thunderstorm damaging wind gusts.

By Friday, a cold front is forecast to push across the southern
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country with a dry-line over west Texas
with a few pulses of energy moving across the local area. The
combination of all of these features are likely to result in
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across most areas of
South Central Texas.

The upcoming weekend starts cloudy and with chances of rain in
addition of cooler temperatures. By Saturday afternoon into the
evening, the above mentioned cold front is forecast to push across
the local area with periods of moderate to heavy rain and the
potential for strong thunderstorms. The highest storm rainfall totals
could end up being across the Hill Country with one to two inches
per latest model guidance. Stay tuned for more details on this event
as we get closer to the end of the work week.

Lingering showers and storms are in the forecast for Sunday with
highs only in the 60s and 70s. Dry and cooler conditions are
expected for the start of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Stratus will continue to expand west across the region through the
overnight and early morning hours while ceilings also lower. MVFR
ceilings currently prevail where stratus is located, but will lower
into IFR and LIFR in some spots. In addition BR will develop in some
areas, producing IFR visibilities and patchy LIFR visibilities.
Ceilings will rise 15Z-20Z back into VFR while BR dissipates.
Isolated SHRA/TSRA activity is possible late Wednesday afternoon and
evening along the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau. A PROB30
TSRA has been included in the DRT TAF after 22Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              88  71  89  68 /   0  10  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  70  89  66 /   0  10  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  71  89  68 /   0  10  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            87  69  88  65 /  10  20  20  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  74  98  72 /  20  20  30  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        86  70  89  66 /  10  10  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             90  68  93  66 /  10  20  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  69  89  66 /   0  10  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   86  72  86  69 /   0  10  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       87  71  90  68 /  10  10  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           88  71  91  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...17
Aviation...76