000
FXUS64 KEWX 200732
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
232 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Some scattered showers continue across the western CWA overnight
with the more robust thunderstorms remaining well west of the Rio
Grande. Mostly cloudy skies continue across the region with
temperatures in the 60s and 70s. The remainder of the overnight and
the morning hours should be mostly rain free for most of the area.
However, will see some activity mainly over the northwestern CWA in
closer proximity to the trough and in the Coastal Plains where low-
level moisture is highest. Rainfall activity will pick up in
coverage and intensity by the afternoon hours as the base of a weak
upper trough axis approaches the area.

The two main areas from the morning will be initially favored this
afternoon. In the southeast, the front will lift north a bit as a
warm front and lead to some higher values of surface based
instability there for some storms to be rooted in the boundary
layer. There is a small chance for a strong to marginally severe
storm with some hail and winds possible with a much smaller chance
for an isolated tornado. In addition to the severe risk, there could
be a localized flooding threat there as well, as the boundary layer
storms potentially produce some decent rainfall amounts. The other
area for possible storms will be in the northwestern CWA by the mid
to late afternoon hours. This activity is then expected to push
southeast through much of the CWA into the late afternoon and
evening hours. Some weak elevated instability could support some low
chance for some marginally severe hail or perhaps a gusty wind
report. SPC has placed a marginal risk for severe storms for much
of the CWA today. Think the higher risk for today into the evening
will be threat for locally heavy rainfall. PMM rainfall from the
HREF show isolated totals up to 2-4 inches possible in the Coastal
Plains and into the northeastern CWA where southerly flow should
push into by the evening hours. Can`t rule out the need for an
isolated Flash Flood Warning late this afternoon and evening, but
overall chances for widespread flash flooding is not high enough to
warrant a watch at this time.

Highs today will range from the upper 60s in the north to the middle
80s in the southwest CWA. Rain chances will linger through the early
overnight hours before pushing east of the CWA. The remainder of the
short-term period will remain dry. Lows Saturday night will be on
the cooler side, in the upper 40s to near 60. Sunday looks to be
pleasant with partly to mostly cloudy skies, breezy northerly flow
and highs topping out in the 60s to near 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

After a cool start Monday morning, southerly lower flow returns
leading to a warming and moistening trend through next week. Well
below normal temperatures warm to above normal by mid week. There
remains uncertainty on how fast POPs return. Light showers/patchy
drizzle are possible mid to late week due to the level jet. However,
chances are too low to mention, at this time. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible late week due to impulses in the
developing southwesterly flow aloft, though there is uncertainty on
the track of these. For now, will maintain the slight chances for
portions of the Hill Country and the I-35 corridor. Later forecasts
will refine the POPs for mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Scattered showers continue near DRT with little thunder activity.
Will just mention VCSH for a couple of more hours. MVFR/IFR
conditions will be expected overnight with little to no improvement
expected during the day tomorrow. Should see some possible scattered
showers and maybe a storm during the early afternoon tomorrow before
more widespread activity is expected in the late afternoon and
evening hours. Will prevail tsra for the I35 sites to handle this.
May see some lingering showers after the line moves through and will
keep from VCSH in for a few more hours. IFR conditions will continue
tomorrow night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  53  65  50 /  80  90   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  51  65  47 /  70  90   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77  53  66  50 /  70  90   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            67  51  62  47 /  90  80   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           81  60  72  58 /  80  40  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  51  63  46 /  90  90   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             79  54  71  50 /  70  70   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  52  66  48 /  70  90   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  55  65  49 /  70  90   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  54  67  51 /  70  90   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           80  56  68  52 /  70  90   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...04
Aviation...29