Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KFFC 242329 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 729 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
/Issued 326 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/... A stationary surface low continues to spin just west of Macon at this hour with very weak flow aloft. This is helping to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across central GA, especially east- central GA through this afternoon. Depending on the low track, this could mean continued heavy rain across this area through the evening, slowly diminishing overnight. Some high res models show the low slowly lifting north this evening which would reduce the chance for widespread flooding across central GA. This will then push the precipitation toward Athens. However, based on model spread, feel the surface low will be slow to progress which will result in localized (possible widespread) flooding through the overnight, with the area of concern being east-central GA including Macon. Expect precipitation coverage to diminish late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Stratus and fog may be an issue in the morning across central/eastern GA. Precipitation will blossom yet again tomorrow mid-morning/early afternoon with the coverage being dependent upon the surface low placement. Current thinking is that we will see better coverage across or just south of the metro and Athens. We will see widespread thunderstorms across the entire area though. Again, the precipitation may take a bit to diminish overnight, leading to more flood concerns across east GA. Over the next 36 hours, we expect some locations across central and east GA to receive between 2 to 4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts, possibly reaching up to 8 inches. With such saturated soils, gusty winds with these storms could easily down trees. 26 LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... Main concerns in the long term period are the track of invest AL90 (aka soon to be Tropical Storm Alberto) and its rainfall footprint through the entire period. NHC continuing to indicate high probability of TC development of invest AL90 to a tropical storm in the next few days, which confirms trend of model guidance this week. 12Z model guidance, including GFS, ECMWF and GGEM, continuing to slowly converge on track and takes center to middle gulf coast somewhere between New Orleans and Mobile. Even with well defined center, appears greatest impact, particularly as it relates to north and central GA, will be very heavy rain and flooding and not wind-related. That said, model guidance seems to be conservative with amounts, taking the bulk of it along and to the right of the track into southern AL and MS. WPC QPF guidance seems to be on the right track, no pun intended with broader swath of heavy rain that includes areas further east including GA. Most concerning is models slowing center down after landfall with GFS in particular lingering center nearby. Will continue to monitor this closely. For now have issued ESF to account for heavy rain and hydrologic threats. Very concerned that with pockets of very high antecedent rainfall, will be vulnerable to a significant flash flood event. SNELSON HYDROLOGY... See hydrologic outlook product issued this afternoon (ESFFFC). Total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts up to 7 inches expected through Wednesday. Rainfall observed over the last 7 days have been 300 to 600 percent of normal over a fairly large area, not just the pockets of very high rainfall see in the last two nights. Belanger/SNELSON
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
00Z Update... Area of TSRA moving out of South Carolina and into eastern GA will continue moving westward across the forecast area this evening. Convection will dissipate toward 06Z with isolated to scattered showers for the rest of tonight. Convection will begin again Friday with scattered to widespread shra/tsra after 15-18Z. Cigs will become MVFR this evening and IFR after midnight. Cigs will improve through the morning Friday. Winds will remain easterly through the forecast. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium on timing of TSRA Friday. High on remaining elements. 17
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Athens 67 80 67 83 / 70 70 60 50 Atlanta 68 80 68 82 / 70 60 50 60 Blairsville 64 77 63 79 / 70 60 60 60 Cartersville 67 81 67 83 / 60 50 40 60 Columbus 70 85 69 84 / 60 60 60 60 Gainesville 67 77 66 80 / 70 70 60 60 Macon 69 83 68 84 / 70 70 60 50 Rome 68 83 67 84 / 50 40 40 60 Peachtree City 68 81 67 83 / 70 60 50 60 Vidalia 70 85 70 85 / 70 60 30 40
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for the following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts... Carroll...Chattahoochee...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb... Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly... Douglas...Emanuel...Fayette...Forsyth...Glascock...Greene... Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston... Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar... Laurens...Lumpkin...Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether... Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pickens... Pike...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton... Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor... Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...Walton... Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...White...Wilcox... Wilkes...Wilkinson. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...17

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.