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574
FXUS62 KFFC 041840
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
240 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

At a glance:

    - Continued waves of showers and thunderstorms expected through
    Sunday

    - "Cooler" today across north and east Georgia, temperatures
    rebound tomorrow

Similar to yesterday, conditions at the lower levels remain
relatively benign, with the western fringes of a surface high
overspreading the Southeast. At the mid-levels, our train of
shortwaves continues, packing a bit more oomph than yesterday thanks
to meager negative tilts and slightly higher amplitudes. After a
brief lull following out rainy start to Saturday, expecting an
uptick in afternoon convective activity both today and Sunday, aided
partially by the shortwave trough axis swinging through.
Thunderstorms today may become weakly organized into quasi-lines
along any lingering outflow boundaries/new outflow boundaries from
earliest storms, especially south of I-20.

MUCAPE looks to reach into the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but
unimpressive shear (<20kt bulk) will preclude meaningful chances for
widespread severe weather; however, a few storms could become strong
to marginally severe. On top of that, PWATs creeping north of 1.5"
areawide puts us at approximately the 90th percentile for early May
per the SPC`s sounding climatology. Any storms that form are likely
to be slow-moving, and will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall, ponding on roads, and perhaps nuisance flooding.

Highs today will be slightly cooler than yesterday along and east of
I-16/I-75 thanks to increased cloud cover and convective coverage,
in the upper-60s to 70s. Elsewhere, expect another day in the 80s.
Sunday, marginally unseasonably warm conditions return (5-8 degrees
above average), with highs in the 70s for the higher elevations in
northeast Georgia and in the 80s to near 90 everywhere else.

96
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

As the extended period begins on Monday, a shortwave trough will
continue to move northeastward through a quasi-zonal mid level flow
pattern, from the Tennessee Valley towards the central Appalachians.
As the axis of the shortwave moves north of Georgia, it will provide
forcing for showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area.
Coverage of thunderstorms will be diurnally enhanced in the
afternoon hours. The combination of forcing ahead of the shortwave,
diurnal instability, and precipitable water values ranging from 1.4
to 1.7 inches will be sufficient for at least likely PoPs across the
majority of the forecast area by Monday afternoon. Some convective
is also likely to lingering after sunset and into Monday night.
Low- level wind shear and dynamic support appears that they will
be located nearest to the axis of the shortwave as it passes north
of the forecast area. As such, a widespread severe weather threat
is not anticipated, but a few storms each day could become strong
and capable of producing locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and
frequent lightning.

A relatively drier period is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday with
a mid-level ridge building over the Southeast. Temperatures will
gradually warm under the ridge, with highs climbing a couple of
degrees each day and reaching into the upper 80s in north Georgia
and low 90s in central Georgia on Wednesday. These temperatures will
be between 8-12 degrees above climatological normals. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to be
confined to the far northern tier each afternoon on Tuesday and
into Wednesday.

By Thursday, an upper level trough will extend from the High Plains
to the Four Corners region while subtropical ridging strengthens
over the Gulf of Mexico. With a tightening pressure gradient between
these features, much of the Southeast will be under strengthening
southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will
advance southward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley region. A
series of disturbances traversing the upper level flow is
anticipated to overrun the front, which will help increase PoPs
and organize thunderstorms across northern portions of Georgia.
With a warm and unstable airmass across much of the Southeast
lending to plentiful SBCAPE and increased deep-layer bulk shear
ahead of the advancing front, the potential for severe weather
associated with convective complexes will need to be monitored for
Thursday into Friday.

King
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Lingering BKN VFR cloud deck eroding to give way to chcs for
isold TSRA at northern TAF sites from 18-23Z. IFR cigs and MVFR
vsbys likely areawide from 09-15Z, then gradual improvement to
MVFR to low-VFR into the aftn. Winds will once again be out of the
SW/SSW at 5-8kts thru 00Z, switching to light out of the SE (and
VRB at times) overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Athens          62  84  63  81 /  50  30  40  70
Atlanta         64  84  65  83 /  30  30  50  70
Blairsville     58  79  60  76 /  30  50  50  90
Cartersville    62  85  63  83 /  30  30  40  80
Columbus        65  88  67  88 /  20  40  30  50
Gainesville     64  82  64  80 /  30  40  50  80
Macon           63  86  66  84 /  30  50  40  70
Rome            62  86  63  85 /  30  30  50  80
Peachtree City  62  85  64  84 /  30  40  40  70
Vidalia         65  87  67  87 /  50  50  40  70
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&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...96