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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KFFC 210255
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1055 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024



...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1053 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Made some minor tweaks to precip chances over the next few hours
based on overall radar trends. Otherwise, forecast remains on
track. Some initial thunder possible with rain/storms pushing into
area now, but not expecting any more severe weather overnight.

Lusk
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Weak surface boundary is situated across south central Georgia this
afternoon. The old boundary will remain nearly stationary through
Sunday afternoon before shifting southward into northern Florida by
the evening. High pressure begins to build in from the west
overnight Sunday.

The nearly stationary front will be the main focus for any
precipitation development overnight and into the first half of
Sunday. In addition, several strong shortwaves will move east in the
flow, providing an excellent source of lift along with the
convergence along the front. The best CAPE may be shunted to
southern portions of the state, but there should be enough surface
instability available for isold to scattered thunderstorms through
Sunday afternoon, especially along and just south of the front. To
the north of the boundary, widespread showers are most likely with
some embedded thunder. Strong storms are possible, especially this
afternoon across the southern third of the CWA. An isolated severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The potential for severe weather
should wane with the loss of heating, but isolated strong storms
could be possible overnight/early Sunday - especially south of Macon
to Columbus. Hail and gusty winds will be possible with any strong
storms. With PWATs around 1.5" south of I-20, locally heavy rainfall
will also be possible.

There is some differences between the models on the overall
evolution of the pops with this system. The HRRR performed fairly
well in the short term period yesterday, so have trended this way for
the afternoon. The ARW precip pattern looks more reasonable for
overnight and the first half of Sunday and have trended close to it
during this period. Drying/clearing is expected for late tomorrow
afternoon into the overnight hours.

Temps tomorrow will likely average around 10 to 20 degrees below
normal for this time of year. Thick cloud cover and widespread rain
will limit heating across much of the forecast area. A cooler and
drier airmass will settle across north and central GA Sunday night.
Mins should range from the mid 30s in the far NE mtns to around 50
in the SE. Will have to monitor the far NE portions of the state for
frost potential. Winds may diminish, but there could be enough
clouds around to prohibit good radiational cooling and keeping frost
more patchy in nature.NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The bulk of the long term period will be fairly nondescript after
the departure of Sunday`s rainfall. Surface high pressure will slide
overhead from Monday into Tuesday, bringing sunny, dry, and cooler
conditions. Monday will be the coolest day of the period with highs
remaining in the 60s areawide, some 10+ degrees below normal.
Tuesday morning lows will dip at least into the 40s areawide, with
some upper 30s possible across far north Georgia as clear skies and
calm winds maximize radiational cooling.

A warming trend then begins from Tuesday into midweek as low level
flow becomes southerly as the surface high shifts eastward. Still,
Tuesday and Tuesday night will remain on the cool side, likely a few
degrees below normal. A weak frontal boundary looks to dip into the
area from Wednesday into Thursday, though the forecast remains dry
given very little moisture in place. In fact, rain chances look to
hold off until at least next weekend. Temperatures by next weekend
also rebound, likely returning a few degrees above normal.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 805 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Wet forecast for most all TAF sites. Rain should move into metro
sites by 03Z timeframe and become steady by the early morning
hours, continuing into the early afternoon before tapering off by
19-21Z. Not expecting TS at this time at metro TAF sites. Cigs
will dip through the overnight, becoming IFR by 09-10Z. IFR
conditions expected to linger through morning and early afternoon
before improving to MVFR by 19-20Z as rain begins to end. Winds
will be NW at metro sites, 5-10 kts. Winds will be more VRB at
AHN, MCN, and CSG. MCN and CSG will have lower overall rain
chances, with PROB30 in place for tomorrow for SHRA.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium-high on morning cigs, high all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Athens          53  59  47  65 /  60  70  10   0
Atlanta         52  57  47  64 /  60  70  10   0
Blairsville     45  55  39  63 /  60  70  10   0
Cartersville    47  59  41  66 /  60  70   0   0
Columbus        56  61  48  69 /  60  50  10   0
Gainesville     52  59  46  64 /  60  70  10   0
Macon           59  62  50  67 /  60  40  10  10
Rome            49  62  43  66 /  70  70   0   0
Peachtree City  51  59  45  66 /  60  70  10   0
Vidalia         65  72  53  66 /  30  50  10  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Lusk