-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
476
FXUS62 KFFC 030526
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
126 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

The weather today will be characterized by a 500 mb ridge
positioned over the eastern CONUS. Skies are expected to be partly
cloudy, with only scattered fair weather cumulus clouds
underneath passing upper cirrus clouds. Temperatures this
afternoon are forecast to rise to between 8-12 degrees above
climatological normals, mainly ranging from the mid 80s in far
north Georgia to the low 90s in portions of central Georgia.
Overnight into Friday morning, the ridge will move eastward
towards the Atlantic coast while a shortwave trough rotates into
the region around an upper low centered over the High Plains. As
this disturbance approaches, a cold front will advance through the
Midwest, gradually slowing as it advances towards Kentucky.
Precipitation ahead of this feature will advance into far north
Georgia on Friday morning, spreading southward over the course of
the day.

By Friday afternoon, likely PoPs are forecast roughly north of
the I-20 corridor, with chance PoPs elsewhere across the area.
With dewpoints in the low 60s and high temperatures forecast to be
in the low to mid 80s in north Georgia and upper 80s in central
Georgia, there will be ample instability to support thunderstorms,
especially in the afternoon. Low-level shear and better dynamics
are expected to stay north of the forecast area and closer to the
frontal boundary. While severe thunderstorms are not forecast on
Friday, isolated stronger storms could be capable of producing
gusty winds.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

The surface high pressure over the western Atlantic shifting off
to the east will help set the stage for a few rounds of active
weather as several shortwave disturbances ripple through the base
of the trough to our west. Saturday, the ridge axis just to our
west will break down as the first shortwave disturbance produces
showers and thunderstorms Saturday for much of the area. A
sufficient amount of surface based CAPE (1000-1500+ J/kg) will be
in place Saturday as isolated storms ahead of more organized
clusters will move across the area. Severe weather is not expected
at this time as limited wind shear and less than optimal lapse
rates will struggle to maintain strong updrafts. However, a few
storms could become strong on Saturday with damaging wind gusts,
lightning, and periods of heavy rainfall being the primary
hazards. Another shortwave on Sunday will produce an additional
round of showers and thunderstorms with a final disturbance on
Monday. While scattered to numerous activity is expected on Sunday
and Monday, convective activity is not expected to be as
widespread as Saturday. QPF through early Tuesday morning will
range from a half inch across western central Georgia and
increasing along an axis to the northeast to around an inch. As
the ridge axis beings to reestablish itself across the east coast,
the next disturbance will keep rain chances relegated to far
north Georgia on Tuesday. A low end chance for precipitation will
remain on Wednesday across far north Georgia Wednesday, but
otherwise dry conditions will largely return.

While there will be periods of active weather throughout the long
term forecast and will help lower temperatures over the weekend,
the hottest temperatures of the year are expected by midweek.
Temperatures will remain in the low 80s on Saturday and Sunday,
rebounding by midweek into the low 90s for most locations outside
of the mountains.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR through the overnight hours. Isold shra are possible around
12Z this morning. Better chances for shra or tsra later this
afternoon and have adjusted the timing by an hour or so in the
prob group. Winds will be a challenge. The predominate direction
during the day will be SW but the predominate directions overnight
and Friday night will be SE.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med - high confidence all elements.
NListemaa
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Athens          64  80  63  84 /  30  60  50  50
Atlanta         65  82  65  84 /  30  70  40  50
Blairsville     59  74  59  79 /  50  70  50  70
Cartersville    62  82  62  86 /  30  60  40  60
Columbus        67  86  66  89 /  20  40  30  40
Gainesville     64  79  64  82 /  40  70  50  60
Macon           66  83  64  87 /  30  70  30  50
Rome            62  82  62  86 /  40  60  40  60
Peachtree City  64  83  63  86 /  30  60  40  50
Vidalia         67  84  66  87 /  40  40  30  50
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...NListemaa