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119
FXUS62 KFFC 031908
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
308 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

At a glance:

    - Multiple waves of precipitation through the weekend

    - Brief reprieve from unseasonably warm temperatures Saturday
    north of I-20

At the surface, conditions are relatively benign, with the western
fringes of surface high pressure still in place across the
Southeast. The primary catalyst for our rather dreary weekend ahead
will be a series of shortwaves traversing mid-level flow aloft, the
strongest of which looks to move through Saturday afternoon.

Development through this afternoon is likely to be patchy and summer-
like, with slight chance to low-end chances (20-40%) for showers and
thunderstorms. Saturday, with the arrival of better (but meager)
forcing and a slug of mid-level moisture, rain chances are likely to
be more widespread and weakly organized, with fewer breaks in
between individual waves.

For both days, MUCAPE looks to reach into the 1000-1500 J/kg range,
but unimpressive shear (<20kt bulk) will preclude meaningful chances
for severe weather. That said, PWATs creeping north of 1.5" areawide
puts us at approximately the 90th percentile for early May per the
SPC`s sounding climatology. Any storms that form are likely to be
slow-moving to stationary, and will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall, ponding on roads, and perhaps nuisance flooding.

Highs today will continue the trend of being several degrees above
average, in the upper 70s to 80s, with 90 in reach across south
central Georgia. Tomorrow will be cooler north of I-20 -- highs in
the 60s are not out of the question for portions of north Georgia,
though generally in the 70s to near 80 -- thanks to greater coverage
of clouds and thunderstorms. South of I-20, expect another day with
temperatures reaching into the low-to-mid 80s.

96
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

As the extended period picks up on Sunday morning, a shortwave
disturbance will be positioned over the ArkLaTex. This disturbance
will move northeastward over the course of the day on Sunday and
into Monday, which will force continued scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. The coverage of
thunderstorms will moreover be diurnally enhanced in the afternoon
hours each day. The combination of forcing ahead of the shortwave,
diurnal instability, and precipitable water values ranging from 1.4
to 1.7 inches will be sufficient for likely PoPs across the majority
of north and central Georgia each afternoon, with some activity
lingering into the evening each day. Low-level wind shear and
dynamic support appears that it will be located nearest to the axis
of the shortwave, which will pass north of the forecast area. As
such, a widespread severe weather threat is not anticipated, but a
few storms each day could become strong and capable of producing
locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

A relatively drier period is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday with
a mid-level ridge building over the Southeast. Temperatures will
gradually warm under the ridge, with highs climbing a couple of
degrees each day and reaching into the upper 80s in north Georgia
and low 90s in central Georgia on Wednesday. These temperatures will
be between 8-12 degrees above climatological normals. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to be
confined to the far northern tier each afternoon on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

By Thursday, an upper level trough will extend from the High Plains
to the Four Corners region while subtropical ridging strengthens
over the Gulf of Mexico. With a tightening pressure gradient between
these features, much of the Southeast will be under strengthening
southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will advance
slowly southward from the lower Midwest into the Tennessee River
Valley. A series of disturbances traversing the upper level flow is
anticipated to overrun the front, which will help organize
thunderstorms across northern portions of Georgia. With a warm and
unstable airmass across much of the Southeast and increased deep-
layer bulk shear ahead of the advancing front, the potential for
severe weather on Thursday will need to be monitored as the forecast
evolves.

King
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR conds expected thru the aftn. Isold TSRA psbl at northern TAF
sites from 19-24Z. Winds will be SW/SSW at 5-8kts through 00Z both
today and tomorrow, becoming light out of the SE/VRB at times
overnight tonight. Low-MVFR to IFR cigs and MFVR vsbys psbl in
heaviest pcpn from 10-16Z, then MVFR to low-VFR cigs and -SHRA to
linger thru remainder of TAF pd. TSRA psbl once again Saturday
aftn, with best window from 18-23Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence morning ceiling progression and precipitation
timing.
High confidence all other elements.

96
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Athens          64  79  62  83 /  40  70  50  60
Atlanta         65  81  64  83 /  50  70  40  60
Blairsville     60  74  59  78 /  70  80  50  80
Cartersville    63  81  62  83 /  50  60  40  60
Columbus        66  87  65  88 /  40  40  30  50
Gainesville     64  78  64  81 /  40  70  50  70
Macon           66  83  64  85 /  30  60  40  60
Rome            64  82  62  85 /  60  60  40  70
Peachtree City  64  83  62  84 /  50  60  30  60
Vidalia         68  83  66  87 /  40  50  30  60
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&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...96