000
FXUS62 KFFC 251101
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
701 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 431 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Key Messages:

 - Light showers are possible across portions of W GA tonight as a
   weak frontal boundary lifts back to the N.

 - A wedge over NE GA will keep daytime highs cool in that area on
   Friday.

NW flow aloft continues over the area early this morning. The weak
frontal boundary that sank S across the area on Wednesday is
presently just S of Columbus and Macon. This boundary will continue
to slowly move S today, stalling just S of the area by this evening.
The front will then begin to lift N late tonight and on Friday in
response to a developing storm system over the Central Plains. Some
isentropic lift over the frontal surface will begin to produce light
rain showers over S AL this afternoon. These showers will continue
to lift N tonight. Some light showers will be possible over the W
zones tonight, possibly reaching as far E as the Atlanta metro area.
Most computer models are conservative with rainfall generated by
this feature, including the NBM ensemble 90th percentile. Friday is
expected to be mostly dry, although a few light showers are possible
in the N mountains.

High temperatures today are forecast to range from near 70 in the N
mountains to the mid 80s across the S. As the old front lifts N and
an upper level ridge moves E toward the region, lows tonight will
range from near 50 in the NE mountains to near 60 in the S. A CAD
wedge is forecast to develop over the NE part of the County Warning
Area by Friday, which will delay the warm-up in that area. High
temperatures Friday will range from near 60 in some of the N
mountains to the mid 80s across the S. The SW extent of the wedge
will play a big role in daytime highs in the Atlanta metro area. The
current forecast is for highs in the upper 70s, but a rather tight
gradient in temperatures will exist just to the NE. The wedge will
also keep thicker cloud cover over NE GA.

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 431 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Highlights:

-The next opportunity for any appreciable rainfall holds off until
next week.

-Slightly above normal temperatures (excluding far NE GA) through
the period.

At the start of the long term period (Friday night) the forecast
area will reside beneath mid-level ridging extending along much of
the eastern CONUS with a wedge of high pressure building from the
northeast. Some light rain showers will be possible across far
northeast Georgia as a warm front lifts north and interacts with the
wedge in place. As noted in the previous forecast discussions any
notable rainfall and any thunderstorms looks to hold off until next
week, though gradual moisture return in the way of increasing cloud
cover can be expected through the weekend. The first of two low
pressure systems will be tracking NE towards the Great Lakes Region
on Saturday as midlevel ridging becomes more amplified. A secondary
low pressure system, taking a similar track as the first, will
develop along the stalled boundary and act to usher showers and
thunderstorms into the forecast area. The current forecast has rain
chances starting to increase across NW GA Monday night and
persisting through Tuesday. Details will continue to become defined
over the next several days. Beyond Tuesday some inconsistencies
arise within the model guidance, though it looks like some light
rain may continue until mid-week.

Above normal temperatures are expected through the long term period
for much of Central Georgia. Forecast highs will generally be in the
upper 70s and 80s potentially reaching the low 90s by mid-week.
Cooler temperatures can be expected for areas under the influence of
the CAD wedge (across parts of North GA) on Saturday with forecast
highs in the 50s/60s. Forecast lows will range from the 50s to low
60s through the period.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions prevail across the area early this morning other
than some patchy MVFR vsbys in light fog at a few terminals. This
will dissipate rapidly after sunrise. The weak frontal band has
moved S of MCN to CSG. Winds will be light and fairly variable
today. The wind direction at ATL is forecast to veer to NNE around
13Z this morning before shifting back to NW by early to mid
afternoon. However, due to the light nature of these winds, there
is lower confidence. As the old front lifts N tonight, some lower
clouds will arrive, along with a few light showers late.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium for wind shift timing, high for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          55  75  58  78 /  10  10   0   0
Atlanta         59  79  62  79 /  20  10   0   0
Blairsville     51  68  55  69 /  10  10  10   0
Cartersville    55  79  61  79 /  20  10   0   0
Columbus        61  86  65  83 /  10  10   0   0
Gainesville     56  72  60  75 /  10  10   0   0
Macon           59  83  62  82 /  10  10   0   0
Rome            55  79  61  79 /  20  10   0   0
Peachtree City  57  82  62  80 /  20  10   0   0
Vidalia         60  83  62  82 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SEC