Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000 FXUS63 KFGF 252337 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 637 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued winter impacts across the southern Red River Valley and west central Minnesota. - Sharp cut off between significant accumulations and very little snow, with snow to the south and east and not much to the north and west. This cut off is stretching from the Fargo metro area up towards Lake of the Woods. - Falling snow tapering off tomorrow, but gusty north winds will bring occasional whiteout conditions in areas that did get snow, along with lingering hazardous travel conditions as snow blows over roads, melts, and refreezes. && .UPDATE...
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Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Visibilities across the area continue to be affected by light snow and flurries. Dewpoints at GFK have increased suddenly, making flurries actually want to stick. Not expecting more than a dusting as this area of snow continues to weaken over us. Snow will continue in the southern Red River Valley and west central Minnesota into tonight. Forecast remains on track.
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&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Large upper trough with several embedded waves over the central CONUS will continue to bring winter impacts to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the rest of today into Tuesday. Currently, deformation zone forcing coupled with mid level frontogenetical forcing are creating snow bands across southeast North Dakota into west-central and northwest Minnesota. This will contribute to additional snowfall accumulations between 2-6 inches as well as moderate to briefly heavy snow rates, from the far southern Valley into northwest Minnesota near Lake of the Woods region. Gusty winds to 40 mph within these snow bands are helping reduce visibility to the half and quarter mile visibility thresholds, and will continue to do so underneath snow bands. While confidence has increased in location of remaining snow, there is perhaps some indications that frontogenetical forcing lingers over the Fargo-metro area into early this evening, which may aid in locally higher amounts, in addition to continued significant reductions in visibility. Reported icy roadways from accumulating snow and refreezing onto roadways in the southern Valley into west-central Minnesota are further exacerbating impacts, and lends confidence in continuing the Winter Storm Warning here. Dry air at the surface continues to undercut snow within the northern and central Valley, and will likely continue to do so significantly limiting any snow accumulation. Getting into Tuesday, cold air advection increase over the area as the mid level wave organizes into Minnesota and Wisconsin. Winds turn north-northwesterly, favoring a Valley enhancement. This will aid in sustained winds around 30-35 mph, with gusts to 45 mph. These winds over freshly fallen snow will contribute to blowing snow impacts tonight through Tuesday morning, including the expectation of occasional whiteout conditions in open country within the southern Red River Valley. There is still room for winds to sustain themselves slightly higher than forecast, leaving around a 20% chance for occasional whiteout conditions to become more persistent resulting in blizzard conditions for Tuesday morning. Another impactful aspect perhaps not talked about for tomorrow is the potential for drifting to lead to icy conditions from blow ice within open areas that have received fresh snow, i.e. southeast North Dakota into west-central Minnesota. This will be driven by air temperatures remaining below freezing while pavement temperatures approach or exceed the freezing mark, along with gusty winds throughout the day. Prepare for lingering hazardous travel conditions to last throughout the day into early evening Tuesday in these areas. Looking ahead, there is one or two progressive clipper-like systems to move through the Northern Plains late this week into the weekend. As of now, winter impacts are possible (30%) from accumulating wintry precipitation, however the chance for warning-type impacts are very low, less than 10%. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
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Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 SN will lower visibilities at FAR, BJI, and possibly TVF and GFK as well. Ceilings will stay in IFR and MVFR territory at all sites through tonight except DVL, where things have started to clear out. Northerly winds will remain gusty through the overnight hours, and increase into Tuesday morning, further reducing visibilities.
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&& .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ030-038. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ039-049-052- 053. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001-002. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ003-029. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ005-008- 013>015. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ006-009-017- 024-032. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ016-022- 023-027-028-030-031-040. && $$ UPDATE...AH DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...AH

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