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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KFGF 130456
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1156 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active pattern early to mid next week, with a 60% chance
  for areas to see over an inch in a three day period.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Still getting some light radar returns across the north, but
still does not seem to be much reaching the ground from the obs
sites. Will keep low POPs, but no impacts expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A fairly extensive cumulus field developed today, but there are
already signs it has peaked, with thinning already ongoing. Have
seen a few hot spots on satellite imagery and radar (from localized
burns), mainly around the Glacial Lakes area east of Crookston.
There are high thin cirrus spreading into the FA, and more mid level
clouds moving into portions of western North Dakota. For this FA,
expect the mid level clouds over western North Dakota and southeast
Saskatchewan to drift in, mainly along and north of highway 2
tonight. Surface winds start out light, but turn around to the
southeast late tonight into Saturday morning. There is even a small
(less than 20 percent) chance for showers within this cloudy area
overnight.

Have been monitoring the fire weather potential for this weekend.
There have been a few things of note starting with Saturday. First,
the weak clipper system that will bring the low chance of showers
late tonight will linger into the day Saturday (again, mainly along
and north of highway 2). Think there will be virga along with these
showers (which should be high based). So like the past few days,
these could mix some gustier winds to the surface at times, but
don`t think it would widespread. The surface low looks pretty weak
overall, and maybe even a little further south now. As the
traditionally better mixing period kicks in by later morning through
the afternoon, the best push of south-southwest winds pushes east of
the FA. As winds turn northwest by mid to late afternoon in the
Devils Lake region and northeast North Dakota, there could be a
couple hours of 15 to 25 mph wind speeds to monitor. However, not
seeing a consistent overlap of low humidity and gusty winds, so will
not issue a Special Weather Statement to highlight fire weather
concerns on this shift. If these components look better, later
shifts can re-evaluate. For Sunday, not seeing any shower chances,
but ridging does push closer. Therefore do expect a pretty sunny
day. Sunday afternoon may actually have lower humidity than
Saturday, but again, the wind speeds look pretty minimal overall (10
to 15 mph for the most part). So again, will continue to monitor,
but will not message any fire weather issues at this point.

Have been watching a lead short wave kicking out into the Northern
Plains on Monday, which should be ahead of the main early to mid
week system. Will have to see how this one evolves, but it could
begin to wet portions of the area with a tenth to a quarter of an
inch of rain. The main system still appears to be in the later
Monday through Wednesday or Thursday time frame. This is a southwest
flow system, which should tap into much better moisture. There is
even a signal today for another 500mb low to wrap into the Northern
Plains in the later Wednesday/Thursday time period, prolonging
precipitation chances into Thursday. The NBM still places pretty
good (~60 percent) probabilities for over 1 inch of precipitation
over a 3-day period. There will be a lot of interesting things to
monitor with this system, from the potential for severe weather
(Monday/Tuesday) to maybe even some snow on the back side (Wednesday
night/Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions with mostly high and mid clouds. A few rain
showers across northern portions of the forecast area but
confidence still not high enough that it will impact the
airports so will keep out of the TAFs. Winds have started to
pick up out of the southeast and will continue to increase to
around 10 kts. Some low level wind shear overnight with a 35 to
40 kt low level jet from the southeast, but should improve by
morning. Wind direction will shift to the southwest by tomorrow
afternoon, then to the northwest by the end of the period, with
some gusts above 20 kts in some places.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...JR