000
FXUS63 KFGF 202337
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
637 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relative humidity values Sunday afternoon drop to less that 25
  percent, although wind speeds should remain in the 10 to 15
  mph range.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Very quiet with some cirrus moving through the southern
counties, and northwesterly winds that should start to drop off
in gustiness shortly as the sun sets.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

So far most parameters have been right on today. The day started
off with abundant sunshine, then some cumulus popped to the
east of the Red River Valley. This cumulus did not last too
long, but more cirrus has been spreading southward out of Canada
this afternoon. The lowest dewpoints have been along and south
of the highway 2 corridor, while the warmest temperatures have
been over southeast North Dakota. Putting these together, the
lowest humidity readings have been over southeast North Dakota.
As the cirrus has been moving southward, the dewpoints have
either been holding or going up slightly. Therefore, don`t
expect any really dry push for late afternoon for the fire
weather forecast. Expect clearing skies tonight with winds
dropping back to the 5 to 10 mph range overnight.

Sunday looks like a drier day overall per the relative humidity
forecast, so the fire weather forecast bears a close watch
again. Highs still look about 10 degrees warmer than today, with
similar dewpoints. That results in minimum afternoon humidities
in the upper teens to low 20s percent. However, wind speeds will
be less than today, generally in the 5 to 15 mph range.

The next chance for rain arrives in the Monday through Tuesday
time frame, as a 500mb wave tracks from the Pacific Northwest
eastward along the Canadian border. Overall, there is not a lot
of moisture to work with, so precipitation amounts should remain
on the lower side. Although precipitation chances are currently
in the 30 to 40 percent range, this looks like it could be a
high POP/low QPF event. Low QPF meaning the rainfall amounts
would be below a tenth of an inch. Wind speeds also look gusty
both Monday and Tuesday. On Monday mainly west of the Red River
Valley and on Tuesday along and west of the Valley.

Looking beyond that, the next active weather period arrives for
Thursday through Saturday, as a period of southwest flow sets
up. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this period. The
ensemble solutions are showing multiple northern and southern
stream waves, and with wave interactions there is always quite a
bit of uncertainty. For the initial wave ejecting out Thursday,
it may turn into more of an elevated event Thursday night. For
surface based convection, the best moisture looks to remain more
in the Central Plains. If elevated convection can get going
Thursday night, there is instability and a chance for thunder.
As mentioned, there are additional waves in the broad southwest
flow continuing through Saturday, and potentially beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions now and throughout the period. Winds have been
gusting above 25 kts in some locations but should start to drop
off to around 10 to 15 kts from the northwest in the next hour
or two. Winds will remain mostly from the northwest to west,
becoming more southwesterly at some airports late in the period
but staying in the 5 to 12 kt range.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...JR