196
FXUS65 KFGZ 071122
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
422 AM MST Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Windy and dry weather is in store for today, with
seasonable temperatures. Near-critical to critical fire weather
conditions are expected north of the Mogollon Rim. Look for below
average temperatures Wednesday through Friday and above normal
temperatures returning over the weekend. Typical spring- like
breezes will be around after today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The low pressure system currently centered over the
Wyoming/South Dakota border will continue to keep pressure
gradients tight across northern Arizona. As a result, expect gusty
winds throughout the afternoon especially near, north and east of
Flagstaff. Thus, a Wind Advisory remains in effect from 12 PM
MST/1 PM MDT today to 7 PM MST/8 PM MDT this evening. Winds are
not the only focus with this long-wave trough, but also elevated
fire weather concerns. There is a Red Flag Warning issued for the
same timeframe as the Wind Advisory for many areas along and north
of the Little Colorado River Valley.

The elongated low over centered over the northern plains will
gradually sag over northern Arizona Wednesday and Thursday. This
pattern will bring afternoon winds down to typical spring-like
conditions, along with below normal temperatures.

On Friday, models indicate a closed low forming off the backside
of the elongated low and centering around southern Nevada. As this
low wobbles around the Southwest, slight chances for showers look
to return to the forecast, primarily for the Four Corners and
AZ/NM border areas.

There is still uncertainty for how long this closed low will stick
around the region, but strictly looking at the GFS guidance, a
slight ridge will form behind the low by the end of the
weekend/early next week bringing above normal temperatures back to
our forecast. There is still time to solidify the
trajectory/impacts of this low, so check back for updates later in
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 07/12Z through Wednesday 08/12Z...VFR with
increasing winds after 16Z. SW-W winds 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40
kts through 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 08/12Z through Friday 10/12Z...VFR with SW-W
winds 10-20 kts with gusts 20-25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Near seasonable daytime
temperatures. Gusty southwest winds and low RH values will lead to
Critical Fire Weather conditions north and east of the Mogollon Rim
this afternoon. Winds decrease on Wednesday with a slight increase
in RH expected.

Thursday through Saturday...Gradually warming temperatures through
the week. Southwest-west winds 10 to 20 mph on Thursday, becoming
northerly 10 to 20 mph Friday and becoming gustier on Saturday.
Mainly dry conditions expected but a slight chance for showers over
the eastern zones Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon MST /1 PM MDT/ today to 7 PM MST /8 PM
MDT/ this evening for AZZ004-005-009>015-039-040.

Red Flag Warning from noon MST /1 PM MDT/ today to 7 PM MST /8
PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ109-110-112>114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff