741
FXUS65 KFGZ 150505
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1005 PM MST Thu May 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and and dry weather will continue through the end
of the work week. Windy and cooler conditions return over the
weekend, with potential for additional fire weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today and Friday...The shortwave trough that brought
winds and high-based showers yesterday has pushed eastward past
northern AZ. A weak trailing shortwave is lingering over AZ today,
then flow turns zonal by Friday. Heights aloft remain above normal,
and daytime temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal for mid
May. Also expect skies to stay mostly clear other than a few
afternoon cumulus clouds.

Saturday and Sunday...A deeper trough is forecast to dig from the
northwest into the Great Basin this weekend. The majority of
ensemble guidance keeps any precipitation to our north, but there is
a low chance for some showers along the AZ-UT border on Sunday.
There is higher confidence in strong winds and cooler temperatures.
The current forecast calls for peak gusts ranging 30-40 mph on
Saturday, then 35-45 mph on Sunday. This may bring further fire
weather concerns, however higher humidity with cooling
temperatures remains a complicating factor. Also, ensemble
guidance continues to vary with the small details of this trough,
and peak wind speeds still have room to change. Nevertheless,
near-critical to critical fire weather remain a possibility each
day.

Monday through Wednesday...Flow looks to turn more zonal to start
next week. Conditions will stay cool and breezy on Monday, but winds
will gradually decrease and temperatures will warm each day
thereafter. There is no strong signal for precipitation through at
least the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 15/06Z through Saturday 16/06Z...VFR conditions.
Winds light and VRB overnight, becoming S/SW 5-15 kts with gusts to
around 20 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 16/06Z through Monday 18/06Z...VFR conditions.
Winds S/SW 15-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts on Saturday, increasing to
20-30 kts with gusts up to 40 kts on Sunday. Winds remain elevated
Saturday night into Sunday morning downwind of the terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Look for Warm and dry weather.
Winds southwest to west at 5-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph Friday,
increasing to 10-20 mph gusting to 30-35 mph on Saturday. Minimum
afternoon RH is forecast to range between 10-20% each day. Near-
critical fire weather conditions will arrive on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warm and dry weather will continue. Winds
southwest at 15-30 mph gusting to 30-40 mph on Sunday. Diminishing
winds thereafter, 10-20 mph gusting to 25-35 on Monday, then 5-15
mph gusting to 25 mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% on
Sunday and Monday decreasing to 5-15% on Tuesday. Critical fire
weather conditions possible on Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff