Text Products for AFD Issued by FGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192317
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
417 PM MST Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather will persist into the weekend.
Expect generally light southwest breezes each afternoon.

.DISCUSSION...Today through Monday...Heights fall gradually as a
weak shortwave ejects off the Pacific and moves into the Desert
Southwest today. Moisture and forcing remain minimal at best, so
the only notable effect this system will have on our weather are
some occasional high clouds. Winds don`t even look to be anything
to noteworthy, with only typical afternoon breezes expected.

Behind the shortwave, heights gradually rise as high pressure builds
back into Arizona. Temperatures look to rise further by a couple of
degrees, with afternoon highs expected to be 10-15 degrees above
normal for this time of year on Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Operational guidance points towards the
ridge of high pressure shifting eastward sometime near the middle of
next week. As it shifts, a cut-off low begins to drop southward well
off the coast of California and eventually propagate eastward into
Arizona. Temperatures look fall slightly (closer to normal) as this
happens, but mainly dry conditions look to prevail. High cloud cover
and increasing southwest winds again look to be the only impacts.
The system does look to have some moisture, so a couple isolated
high- based showers and virga may be possible, but so far seems
unlikely for most.

Albeit, some timing differences between models does introduce
uncertainly in the exact scenario.

.AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --Saturday 20/00Z through Sunday 21/00Z...VFR conditions
and light winds.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 21/00Z through Tuesday 23/00Z...VFR conditions
continue. On Sunday, variable winds under 15 knots. On Monday,
southwest winds at 10 to 20 knots.-- End Changed Discussion --

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Mild temperatures and dry
conditions prevail through the weekend. Afternoon RH 10-20%, with
overnight recoveries 30-50% over the lower elevations and 60-70% in
the higher terrain. West/southwest winds 10-15 mph.

Monday through Wednesday...Mild and dry conditions, with southwest
winds 15-25 mph each afternoon. Afternoon RH 10-20%.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Benji
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

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