Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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234 FXUS65 KFGZ 012345 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 445 PM MST Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue through the rest of the week. Windier, more unsettled weather returns late this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...A few light showers have popped up this afternoon over far northern AZ with the trough passing to our north - these should quickly dissipate this evening, with fair skies and seasonably cool temperatures expected overnight. With the passage of this trough, expect generally featureless zonal flow across the Southwest through the rest of the week as a deep trough slowly drops into the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures through Friday will be near to, or slightly above normal with seasonal afternoon breezes. Over the weekend, the aforementioned NW trough will aggressively dig southeast through northern California and into the Great Basin. The trough will be far enough south to bring strong winds to the area, but not deep enough for significant precipitation in Arizona. Models have continued to merge into a solution that will favor wind gusts of 25-35 mph on Saturday afternoon, and gusts in excess of 50 mph on Sunday over and downwind of the higher terrain. The meteorological conditions will be consistent with near critical fire weather conditions over east and northeast AZ this weekend - something to watch closely as our finer fuels continue to dry this week. Relatively cool, fair weather will return to Arizona next week as dry westerly flow once again re-asserts itself across the area. && .AVIATION...Thursday 02/00Z through Friday 03/00Z...VFR conditions continue under SCT afternoon, mid-level clouds. W-SW surface winds will begin to weaken to less than 10 kts after 02Z. Variable winds overnight will return to W-SW by 17Z with gusts generally below 20 kts from 19Z onward. OUTLOOK...Friday 03/00Z through Sunday 05/00Z...VFR conditions persist through Saturday with minimal cloud cover. Afternoon W-SW winds at 10-15 kts Thursday and Friday will shift to more S-SW and strengthen Saturday to 15-20 kts, gusting near 30 kts in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Friday...A few light showers will continue moving across far northern Coconino County through this evening. Expect minimum humidity of 15 to 20% for this afternoon, decreasing to 10 to 15% on Thursday. Winds will be out of the west- southwest, 15 to 25 mph, each afternoon resulting in good to excellent mixing conditions. Saturday through Monday...Warm and windy afternoons will continue through Saturday with with minimum humidity of 10 to 20%. Southwest winds increase each day, becoming very strong on Sunday with widespread gusts of 40 to 55 mph with areas of critical fire weather conditions are likely. A few showers are possible over the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday. Winds will decrease some on Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...BAK AVIATION...Mazon FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff