Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 192232

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
332 PM MST Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A potent cold front will bring another round of strong
winds to the area today. Behind the front, there will be
increasing chances for rain and snow showers late tonight into
Friday. Moderating temperatures and lighter winds can be expected
for the weekend and into early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Low pressure can be seen moving through southern
California this afternoon with deep southerly flow entrenched across
Arizona. Strong southerly winds have developed with current
observations reporting 30-40 mph gusting from 40 to 55 mph. The
strongest winds so far have been reported from Two Guns to
Springerville where gusts of 60-70 mph have been reported. Eastern
Arizona may have already experienced their strongest gusts as
thicker cloud cover moving in this afternoon may hamper stronger
winds from reaching the surface. Meanwhile, the western zones
which are clearing out will likely see wind speeds increase
through the afternoon. Wind Warnings and Advisories remain in
effect until 8 pm MST/9 pm MDT. A Dust Storm Warning also remains
in effect. We have not seen evidence or reports of any blowing
dust yet, but there is high potential for it to develop and will
keep the warning out. Lastly, the strong wind and very low
humidity are generating Red Flag conditions and a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect for all of northern Arizona.

Winds will remain breezy tonight as the potent cold front moves
through, but they will remain below advisory/warning criteria.
There will be an increasing chance for rain and snow showers along
the Utah border region overnight which will spread south along the
Mogollon Rim through Friday afternoon. The best chance for
measurable precipitation will be over the Kaibab Plateau and
Black Mesa where up to about an inch of snow is possible above
6,000 feet. There`s also enough instability Friday afternoon for a
few thunderstorms to develop. Temperatures will be cooler Friday,
especially in the northeast corner of the state.

The low exits by the weekend with much warmer and drier weather in
store. Warm and predominantly dry weather will continue through
next week as high pressure dominates over the southwest.

Models agree with bringing another cold low into the western
states sometime late next week or weekend, but timing differences are
too great to have any real confidence on any wind or
precipitation impacts at this time.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Very strong south to
southwest winds through 03z Fri due to a cold frontal
passage. Aft 03z, wind speeds decreasing to 10-20 kt gusts to 30 kt,
and shifting directions to westerly behind the front. Possible areas
IFR in blowing dust for the northeast quarter of the state through
03z. After 06Z, areas mvfr across Coconino county as cigs fall
to near 3000 feet. Isold to Scattered -SHRA/-SHSN mainly N of a KFLG-
K0V7 line after 06Z continuing through Friday afternoon. Isold
-TSRA/-TSSN Friday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A cold front will bring very strong winds and
widespread critical fire weather conditions to all of the region
through early this evening. Expect increasing humidity and cloud
cover by Friday morning behind the front. Scattered showers are
possible Friday, with breezy west to northwest wind. Much warmer
conditions with less wind are expected Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry and warmer conditions continue with
winds generally 15 mph or less.


this evening FOR AZZ012>017-039-040.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ104>118-

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ004>011-037-038.

Dust Storm Warning until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ005-




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