Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 112145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
245 PM MST Sun Mar 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered rain showers to wind down by sunset tonight.
Extensive low clouds and areas of fog to remain through Monday
morning. Dry and warmer weather returns from Monday afternoon
through Tuesday night. Breezy and unsettled conditions are back
Wednesday with the possibility of another wet system by late
Friday through the weekend.


The deep moisture and mid level shortwave that brought widespread
precipitation to the northland have moved out of the state. We do
have some weak and shallow convective showers along the Mogollon
Rim from Williams to Show Low, these should end around sunset.

Satellite imagery shows extensive stratus clouds over and around
northern AZ this afternoon. Progs keep a saturated boundary layer
with light winds over the northland through Monday morning and
areas of fog are expected.

Clearing conditions are expected Monday afternoon with fair
weather on tap through Wednesday morning. This due to a ridge of
high pressure moving across the desert southwest. Max temps to be
nearly 10 degrees above normal on Tuesday.

Southwest flow still set to return starting Wednesday. Progs are
vacillating on the strength of a shortwave passing to our
northwest on Wednesday and precip chances for the Coconino County.
Thus kept the slight chance of showers going for this area. Cross
sections showing a moistening SW upslope flow to then strengthen
through Thursday, leading to cloud cover and a slight chance of
showers along the high terrain. Breezy afternoon winds to return
for all starting Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...An unsettled southwesterly flow will be over Arizona
Thursday night through Friday as a colder low pressure system
develops out over the Pacific. Expect generally cooler
temperatures, breezy afternoon winds, and low chances for a few
light showers. Today`s model runs are in better agreement with
bringing a more substantial precipitation event through the area
when the Pacific trough moves through on Saturday/Saturday night,
but they still show considerable differences on the strength and
evolution which will affect resulting precipitation type and snow
levels. Have trended precip chances toward Saturday while taking a
middle of the road approach on snow levels for now.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...MVFR to IFR conditions will
persist through the night for much of northern AZ. Scattered showers
will decrease this evening but low ceilings will persist and some
areas of fog are possible as well. Winds will generally be light.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Showers will decrease this evening with cloudy
conditions continuing overnight into Monday morning. A period of
mild conditions and mostly dry weather will return Monday through
the middle of the week. Expect light winds, turning breezy from the
southwest on Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...A mild yet unsettled southwesterly flow
will be over Arizona late in the week. Expect breezy winds each
afternoon with a low chance for a few showers. A colder and wetter
storm system is shaping up for next weekend.






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