Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

FXUS65 KFGZ 151727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1027 AM MST Thu Mar 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...An active weather pattern is expected for the the rest
of the week and into the weekend, as multiple weather disturbances
move off the Pacific. Expect rain and snow showers today, with
windy conditions continuing. After a break Friday, another chance
for rain and snow arrives Saturday evening through Sunday morning.


Precipitation is beginning in earnest across much of Yavapai and
Coconino counties. Forecast appears on track at the moment for
this system with a one to two inches of snowfall possible...mainly
over 5500 to 6000 feet. Models are beginning to come in showing a
increasing spread in precipitation ranges for the Saturday night
Sunday system. Updates to this later storm system will be
addressed with the afternoon forecast package.


.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...A broad trough of low pressure
stretches across most of the western U.S. this morning with an
embedded shortwave bringing showers to southern California. This
shortwave will move east through Arizona today bringing a good
chance for rain and mountain snow showers along with strong winds
to eastern portions of the state. A few upslope forced showers are
possible through the early morning, otherwise the main
precipitation is expected to begin after 8 am MST. Showers will
increase across Coconino/Yavapai Counties this morning then
spread east through the afternoon. We still expect up to an inch
or two of snow above 6,000 feet with up to 3-4" over the Kaibab
Plateau. Gusty winds through the day may lead to areas of poor
visibility in snow showers. The strongest winds will be east of a
Page to Payson line where a Wind Advisory continues.There is also
a possibility of a few thunderstorms, especially north of
Flagstaff through the afternoon.

The trough axis heads east of Arizona this evening with showers
coming to an end, though some breezy winds will continue
overnight. Friday will see a slightly more mild southerly flow in
between weather systems.

The parent trough that has been out over the Pacific will move
inland this weekend with another round of rain and mountain snow
likely. This one takes a similar track through Arizona with
similar precipitation amounts forecast from Saturday evening
through Sunday morning. Generally 1-3" of snow are possible,
again above about 6,000 feet. A period of drier weather arrives
through the early part of next week with warming temperatures.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package... SHRA/-SHSN will cause local MVFR
and IFR conditions. Southwest winds 10 to 15 with gusts 25 to 30
kts. North of the Mogollon Rim, winds 20 to 25 gusts to 35 to 40
kts. Showers will begin to clear after 05z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwest winds will continue as a trough of
low pressure moves across Arizona. This trough will bring rain and
snow showers today lasting into the evening. Expect gusty southwest
winds to continue overnight and through Friday.

.Saturday through Monday...Another trough will move through the
region over the weekend bringing rain and snow showers on Saturday
and Sunday. Windy conditions are expected on Saturday. High pressure
will bring warmer and drier weather on Monday with light winds.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ009>014-016-017-




For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.