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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181206
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
506 AM MST Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Typical springtime weather with warm, dry, and breezy
conditions persisting the rest of this week and through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mundane, uneventful weather is in store for northern
Arizona. The Southwest U.S. remains under zonal flow, keeping
breezy west to southwest winds and above average temperatures in
the forecast the next several days. Most areas will experience
afternoon high temperatures roughly 10 degrees above normal. A
few ripples in the pattern will allow for an increase in cloud
cover today and tomorrow, but overall, expect plenty of sunshine
the next several days.

Tuesday through Thursday...Slight changes will be felt next week
as a shortwave trough is expected to push into the area around the
Tuesday to Thursday time frame. There is a lot of disparity
between the GFS and ECMWF when it comes to timing and positioning
of the associated low pressure. Regardless, both models` ensembles
agree on the very limited impacts of this system. It will lead to
elevated winds, gusting at 25 to 35 mph in the afternoons out of
the south-southwest. In addition, a mostly inconsequential
cooling trend will bring temperatures towards seasonal conditions
by midweek. While an increase in cloud cover is expected,
precipitation seems unrealistic at this time as a moisture starved
atmosphere helps prevent any chance of precipitation from
entering the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Thursday 18/12Z through Friday 19/12Z...Despite mid
to high cloud cover increasing through the TAF period, VFR
conditions will persist with ceilings generally above FL150. W-SW
surface winds generally at 10-15 kts will have gusts near 20 kts
after 17Z to 19Z, becoming light after sunset at around 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 19/12Z through Sunday 21/12Z...VFR continues
under mostly clear skies. Breezy W-SW winds in the afternoons
will become light overnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Friday...Dry and warm with west-
southwest winds at 10-15 mph, gusting 20-25 mph both days. Afternoon
relative humidity will be roughly 10-20% today, decreasing slightly
Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Dry, warm, breezy conditions remain.
Modest westerly winds through the weekend will increase out of the
west-southwest by Monday, gusting near 25-30 mph. Afternoon RH
values will generally be between 10-20% each day with some valley
locations dropping into single digits.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mazon
AVIATION...Mazon
FIRE WEATHER...Mazon

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff