Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000 FXUS65 KFGZ 222105 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 205 PM MST Fri Mar 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather continues today. Increasing winds on Saturday will give way to the return of more unsettled weather, with rain and snow showers at times from Saturday night into Tuesday. && .UPDATE...A weak ridge of high pressure is moving over Arizona today with max temperatures running few degrees above average for this time of year. Updated forecast for some of the colder mountain valleys for tonight. By Saturday night, winds, clouds, and higher humidity/showers will keep these areas from getting much colder from surrounding areas. The next trough is already moving on the West Coast today and will impact the weather over northern Arizona Saturday into next week. && .PREV DISCUSSION /352 AM MST/...Brief ridging will develop across the state today, with mild temperatures several degrees warmer than average. There will be mid and high clouds around, but no precipitation is expected. Saturday - strong low pressure will move into the western United States, centered over the Pac NW. Daytime temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but the bigger story will be increasing southwest winds. Sustained speeds of 20-30 mph are likely, with some gusts of 35-45 mph, strongest over the Little Colorado River valley. Saturday night through Sunday - the low pressure system will move into Arizona bringing periods of rain and snow. At this time, two periods of enhanced shower activity are likely, the first spreading NW to SE from Saturday evening through Sunday morning with the initial frontal band with snow levels falling rapidly from around 7000 ft down to 5000 ft. Up to 2" of snow is forecast above 6000 ft during this period. The second period of enhanced showers is expected Sunday afternoon and evening as the main low moves in. Additional accumulation of up to 2" is forecast above around 6500 ft, with localized impacts to travel especially toward sunset and into the evening. Monday through Tuesday - while the main low moves east of the state, most guidance keeps cold northwest flow with a couple of shortwaves moving through. Snow levels stay around 6000-6500 ft, with some light accumulations once again. Wednesday and Thursday - the region should be in between systems with fair and milder weather returning. && .AVIATION...
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Saturday 23/00Z through Sunday 24/00Z...VFR conditions persist through Saturday morning with SCT-BKN mid and upper-level clouds. Southwest winds 10-15 kts gusting up to 20 kts, becoming 10 kts or less by 03Z. OUTLOOK...Sunday 24/00Z through Tuesday 26/00Z...Periods of MVFR/IFR VIS and CIGS by Saturday night and Sunday due to scattered SHRA/SHSN. Southwest winds gusting 25-35 kts on Saturday, followed by west-southwest gusts 20-35 kts on Sunday.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Friday will see dry and warm weather with afternoon west-southwest winds 5 to 15 mph under high pressure. On Saturday, windy conditions develop by afternoon as a Pacific storm approaches, dropping temperatures 5-10 degrees. Southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting up to 40 mph are forecast. Increasing chance of showers late Saturday night. Sunday through Tuesday...The storm arrives producing chances for rain and snow showers through Tuesday. Gusty southwest to west winds on Sunday at 15 to 25 mph gusting to 40 mph will turn lighter on Monday and Tuesday, with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Sunday will see daytime temperatures cool by another 10 to 15 degrees with only slight warming in store for Monday and Tuesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MAS/JJ AVIATION...MCT FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff

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