Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 182110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
210 PM MST Sun Mar 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect improving conditions through the remainder of
this afternoon, with dry weather for all of northern Arizona
after 8 pm this evening. Dry weather and warming temperatures are
forecast through Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, gusty
southwest winds and good chances for mainly rain showers are
forecast as the next low pressure system impacts the area.


.DISCUSSION...For the rest of today and tonight, conditions will
continue to improve, with dry weather for all of northern Arizona
after 8 pm. In addition, strong southwest winds will continue
across east-central Arizona, where gusts above 40 mph are
possible. A Wind Advisory remains in effect in this area through 5
pm. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to range from the
teens to mid-20`s across most of Arizona`s High Country.

On Monday, high pressure will begin to build into the area leading
to a period of dry weather and warming temperatures. By Wednesday,
near to above normal daytime temperatures, breezy west to
southwest winds and thick cloud cover will develop ahead of an
approaching low pressure system.

Beginning Thursday, good chances for mainly rain showers and gusty
southwest winds are forecast as the next low pressure system
impacts the area. Current data suggests that this relatively warm
system will be accompanied by a nice plume of Pacific moisture.
Snow levels look to be in the 7000 to 8000 foot range, lowest
along the Kaibab Plateau. While most model guidance forecasts some
shower activity by Thursday afternoon, the ECMWF keeps
precipitation in the forecast through much of Friday. The GFS is
a bit more progressive, with the bulk of the precipitation
falling Thursday night.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Look for VFR conditions over
the next 24 hours. West winds of 15-25 kts will diminish overnight
and become northerly at 5 to 15 kts on Monday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will produce dry weather, light
winds and warming temperatures on Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...High pressure will deliver a continuation
of mild weather on Wednesday. Breezy and unsettled conditions return
for Thursday and the end of the week as a series of weather
disturbances take aim on Arizona.


this afternoon FOR AZZ011-013-014- 017-040.




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