364
FXUS65 KFGZ 011045
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
345 AM MST Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue through the
rest of the week. Windier, more unsettled weather returns late
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...With a shortwave passage to the north today,
slightly cooler and breezier conditions are expected today. Winds
won`t be too much to write home about, with peak afternoon gusts
likely in the 20-30 mph range. Downwind areas of the Kaibab
Plateau, Black Mesa, and Chuska Mountains will likely see the
strongest gusts, where gusts of 35-40 mph are possible. More
typical afternoon breezes winds ensue on Thursday, as high
pressure begins to gradually build back into Arizona for the
weekend. Gradually warming temperatures also return as a result.

By Sunday, a much stronger trough dives southward into the Great
Basin. Model guidance has come into a bit better agreement with the
track of the trough, which adds a bit more confidence to the
forecast. Given the track, the system will be fairly moisture
starved, so any precipitation looks to be limited. The areas most
likely to see any showers, will largely be the higher terrain of far
northern Arizona. The main focus with this system looks to be the
wind, with EPS and GEFS ensemble guidance showing a strong signal
towards winds in excess of 50 mph over the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 01/12Z through Thursday 02/12Z...VFR
conditions are expected with mostly clear skies. Anticipate west-
southwest winds 10-20 kts in the afternoon, weakening to under 10
kts after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 02/12Z through Saturday 04/12Z...VFR conditions
persist through Saturday with little to no cloud cover. Afternoon
west-southwest winds, 10-20 kts, persist on Thursday and Friday,
becoming stronger on Saturday, 20-30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Mild and dry weather continues
across northern Arizona through Thursday. Expect minimum humidity of
15 to 20% for this afternoon, decreasing to 10 to 15% on Thursday.
Winds will be out of the west-southwest, 15 to 25 mph, each
afternoon resulting in good to excellent mixing conditions.

Friday through Sunday...A warming and drying trend is anticipated
for Friday into Saturday with afternoon temperatures 5 to 10 degrees
above average and minimum humidity of 10 to 20%. Southwest winds
increase each day, becoming strong on Sunday with widespread gusts
of 40 to 55 mph forecast. Areas of critical fire weather conditions
are likely on Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff