006
FXUS65 KFGZ 042052
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
152 PM MST Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Winds will continue to increase overnight, peaking on
Sunday, and remaining gusty through much of the week. Isolated
showers near the Arizona-Utah state line on Sunday with most areas
remaining dry. Temperatures will cool slightly on Sunday but warm
back up through midweek. Another trough will keep temperatures
cool for the second half of the week but conditions will remain
dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Look for a strong but mainly dry low pressure system
to swing across Arizona tonight and on Sunday. The primary impact
of this system will be very strong winds. Winds will strengthen
overnight across much of northern Arizona as the low approaches.
Before midnight, mainly along and northwest of a line extending
from Prescott to Flagstaff to Page, southwest winds in the 20 to
30 mph are forecast. Gusts to near 50 mph are possible over and
to the northeast of higher terrain features. After midnight,
similar winds spread eastward to the New Mexico border. During the
day Sunday stronger winds really kick in with widespread
sustained southwest winds at 30 to 40 mph gusting to over 60 mph,
primarily from the Mogollon Rim northward where a High Wind
Warning has been issued. Further south winds will gust to around
40 mph with a Wind Advisory for the higher elevation locations of
Yavapai County. The low will bring with it dynamics for upward
motion and draw in limited moisture for a slight chance of showers
from about Flagstaff northwestward Sunday afternoon and evening.
Cooler on Sunday with the passing low and associated cold front.

For Monday through Saturday...The current low exits the state on
Monday to be replaced by another dry and weaker low on Tuesday.
As a result, pressure gradients will remain elevated for afternoon
winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph on Monday then strengthen
to 20 to 30 mph gusting to 45 mph on Tuesday with the passing
low. Other than turning a bit cooler on Wednesday behind the low
temperatures will climb to near normal with northwest to west
winds as 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 04/18Z through Sunday 05/18Z...Expect
generally VFR conditions into Sunday. South-southwest winds
gusting 25-35kts will persist overnight and increase Sunday
morning with gusts 40-55kts by 18Z Sunday. A few -SHRA possible
north of I-40, with areas of MVFR visibilities due to blowing dust
developing at KINW-KSJN-KRQE on Sunday.


OUTLOOK...Sunday 05/18Z through Tuesday 07/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions on Sunday with a few -SHRA north of I-40 through
Sunday afternoon. Periods of MVFR visibility due to blowing dust
are expected at KINW-KSJN-KRQE Sunday afternoon. Strong southwest
winds 25-35 kts with gusts of 40-55 kts on Sunday afternoon with
moderate turbulence. Winds decrease Sunday night into Monday, with
winds to 20-30 kts from the west by Monday with widespread VFR
conditions returning through Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Monday...Southwest winds
gusting 20-35mph will continue this afternoon and overnight. Winds
will dramatically increase Sunday morning to 40 to 55 mph, with
favored downsloping areas gusting to 65 mph. Minimum RH on Sunday
will be 10 to 20% across northeast Arizona which will lead to
periods of critical fire weather conditions over NE Arizona Sunday
afternoon and early evening. Winds will decrease on Monday, but
remain elevated with west winds gusting to 25-35 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...West-southwest winds will remain
seasonably strong each afternoon through Thursday with widespread
gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Expect afternoon min RH of 10 to 15%, and
overnight RH of 25 to 45%. No precipitation is expected through the
period.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 6 AM MST /7 AM MDT/ to 9 PM MST /10 PM
MDT/ Sunday for AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040.

Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM MST Sunday for AZZ008.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MST Sunday for AZZ114.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff