Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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281 FXUS64 KFWD 221133 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 633 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .AVIATION... High clouds continue to spill over the upper ridge centered just west of the area, otherwise the weather pattern remains fairly quiet. The primary difference today is the increase in low level winds. Wind speeds will increase into the 15 to 25 KT range during the mid to late morning hours while veering to a more southerly direction. Gusts may drop off after sunset, but winds will likely remain in the 15-20 KT range through the evening and overnight hours. A southerly low level jet around 35 KT will develop late this evening, ushering in a swath of moisture at 925MB. This will result in a stratus deck surging north out of Central Texas overnight. The latest hi-res guidance indicates MVFR cigs arriving in the Waco area 06-08Z and in the DFW Metroplex 08-10Z Friday, with conditions improving around midday Friday. 30 && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 338 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/ The axis of an upper level ridge will work its way east from the Rockies into the Plains over the next 24 hours. This should keep skies mostly sunny today with only the occasional passing cirrus to contend with. At the surface, a tightening pressure gradient means that wind speeds will be on the increase today. Breezy conditions across the western counties this morning will spread east across the rest of the area by this afternoon. Velocities will be southeast to south and generally in the 15 to 25 MPH range. Conditions will remain breezy overnight, which will help keep low temperatures mainly in the 55-60 degree range. A low level moisture surge will bring widespread stratus and mostly cloudy skies to the area prior to sunrise Friday. A few sprinkles are possible as the low clouds move in, but overall conditions should remain dry for the next 24 hours. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 338 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/ /Friday through Wednesday/ Upper level ridging will dominate North Texas weather on Friday leading to a warm day. We`ll start off the morning mostly cloudy as southerly winds will really begin to transport some deeper low level moisture northward. A fast moving shortwave will spread into the Central Plains during the day allowing a surface cyclone to deepen resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across North Texas. Breezy southerly winds and some partial clearing will allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s. As the surface low over the Plains pulls away, a cold front will slide southward and should be across southern Oklahoma by Saturday afternoon and may eventually slide into North Texas. We should initially be under the continued influence of mid level ridging, but by late afternoon, mid and upper level flow begins to strengthen with weak height falls spreading into the region. This suggests that there may be some weak forcing for ascent spreading in from West Texas. Although we will be capped, strong heating during the afternoon with temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 80s would be sufficient for surface parcels to convect, especially with any forcing along the weak frontal boundary and any assistance from weaker large scale forcing. The probability is low (10-20%), but given the modest instability and steep lapse rates, we`ll show some slightly higher PoPs across our northwest counties late Saturday afternoon and evening. As this front lifts northward Saturday night, we may actually see an increasing coverage of showers/storms along the Red River and into Oklahoma. Hail would be the main threat during this time. On Sunday, a large upper trough will begin to dig southward into California. As flow strengthens across the central Rockies, surface pressures will fall over the Central Plains. A dryline should move eastward Sunday afternoon and will likely be across our far western counties. Strengthening southwest flow aloft will help advect a fairly deep elevated mixed layer into the region by Sunday afternoon which should help cap most of the area. It`s a little unclear how sharp the dryline will be late Sunday afternoon out west, but nonetheless a large area of low level convergence and strong heating with increasing forcing aloft should be sufficient for some scattered convection into the early evening hours. Forecast sounding from the Stephenville area up to Bowie show the cap completely eroding with 2000-2500 J/kg of instability and modest deep layer shear. Flow in the 1-3 km layer is generally weak, but a hail and damaging wind threat would accompany any storms Sunday afternoon and evening. The atmosphere should have ample time to recover from any convective activity on Sunday for another round of storms on Monday primarily across the northwest counties. As the large upper trough continues to spread forcing for ascent across the region and another dryline push comes in by late afternoon, we should see thunderstorms develop once again. Similar to Sunday, this initial activity would pose a severe risk with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. As we transition into Monday night through the middle of next week, the threat for more widespread showers and thunderstorms increases along with a threat for very heavy rainfall. The upper trough will gradually close off over southern Arizona and New Mexico during the day Monday and a cold front will slide south through the Plains. The front will likely be a key player in the heavy rainfall threat through the middle of the week as it eventually becomes stationary and will provide a substantial focus for low level convergence. With the position of the upper trough to the west and a general slow forward speed, the pieces appear to be coming together for a heavy rainfall event through the middle of next week. Upper flow will become increasingly diffluent and strengthen to over 100 kt by Tuesday. Deep unidirectional flow and a steady influx of low level moisture (850 mb dewpoints > 14C) in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary will persist Tuesday through Thursday suggesting that multiple rounds of training showers and thunderstorms will be possible. It`s a good bet that parts of North Texas will pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through next week, although those totals could go much higher given the exact location of the surface and upper features. We`ll continue to monitor this threat over the coming days. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 59 82 68 87 / 0 0 10 5 10 Waco 78 59 84 64 86 / 0 0 5 5 5 Paris 73 55 77 61 82 / 0 0 5 10 10 Denton 77 59 82 64 86 / 0 0 10 5 10 McKinney 75 57 77 64 85 / 0 0 5 5 10 Dallas 78 60 82 67 87 / 0 0 5 5 10 Terrell 76 57 79 63 83 / 0 0 5 5 5 Corsicana 77 58 80 63 84 / 0 0 5 5 5 Temple 78 59 85 65 85 / 0 0 5 5 5 Mineral Wells 80 60 86 61 89 / 0 0 5 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 30/91 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.