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000
FXUS64 KFWD 250032
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
732 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Evening/

Shortwave ridging persists over North and Central Texas this
afternoon with a dryline to the west (near the Texas/New Mexico
border) and a stalled surface front to the north (near the Red
River). Satellite analysis shows Pacific moisture advection and
high clouds drifting eastward across the state while the
scattered/broken remnants of this morning`s low stratus deck
lingers overhead. So far, today`s convective development has
mainly been driven by isentropic ascent/warm advection near and
north of the front in Oklahoma. Additional showers and
thunderstorms may develop in these same areas tonight when the
front begins to lift northward as a warm front and a low level jet
develops. We will maintain the highest rain chances, 20-30%,
generally north of Highway 380 through the evening and overnight
hours. As a result of the prevailing southerly low-level flow and
moistening boundary layer, low clouds are expected to return/fill
in quickly tonight. The increasing cloud cover and persistent warm
air advection should keep temperatures mild with lows in the
mid/upper 60s by daybreak.

A shortwave trough swinging through the Four Corners region on
Thursday will encourage a low-level mass response in the form of
surface cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado. Apart from a few warm
advection driven sprinkles or isolated light showers, the capped
warm sector is likely to remain mostly precipitation-free through
the afternoon. However, storm chances will increase Thursday
evening as the approaching shortwave lifts towards the Central and
Southern Plains, dragging the corresponding Pacific cold
front/dryline towards our western zones. Convection-allowing
models indicate the potential for convection developing along the
dryline late tomorrow with upscale growth as storms move into an
environment favorable for severe weather (moderate instability and
strong deep-layer shear). Hail and damaging wind gusts will be
the main threats.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/
/Friday Through Early Next Week/

There will be several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms
over the weekend. The potential for severe thunderstorms will
exist, but their coverage and timing will depend on a variety of
factors. This will mainly involve the placement of a stalled
frontal boundary and a surface dry line. That being said, large
hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats along with
frequent lightning. There is a low chance for an isolated tornado
or two as well. It is important to note that regardless of the
areal placement of these storms, coverage will vary through the
weekend and several locations may not see any storms at all.

A shortwave trough will push through the region early Friday
morning, with rapid height falls across North and Central Texas.
An approaching cold front will interact with an open warm sector
that will be in place across our region, leading to the first
round of showers and thunderstorms. These will be propagating
within a storm environment that will be favorable for severe
weather on Friday morning through the afternoon and evening hours.
Storms will exit to the east on Friday night before our next
round of thunderstorms moves in through Saturday and Sunday as
another shortwave trough pushes across the Central Plains. Surface
features such as the dry line and a stalling frontal boundary
will largely dictate where storms develop through the rest of the
weekend, and confidence in their placement as of right now remains
quite low. Because of this, a broad mention of showers and
thunderstorms is necessary for the public forecast until details
can be further refined as higher resolution guidance comes into
range for the weekend. On top of this, a windy weekend will be in
store with ambient winds potentially gusting upwards of 45 mph as
a tight pressure gradient sets up ahead of our weekend system. A
Wind Advisory will likely be necessary on Saturday in future
forecast packages as we refine these details further.

While most of the ingredients for severe weather will be in
place, the ultimate question will be regarding the overall quality
of lift with the placement of both shortwave troughs and the
location of our surface features. The strength of our residual
EML/capping inversion will also be in play for our active weather
over the weekend. With all of this being said, please continue to
stay up-to-date with the latest forecast as confidence increases
over the next couple of days.

As we move into early next week, a weak ridge will begin to set
up once again. This will lead to a short-lived period of dry
weather before chances for showers and thunderstorms return to
North and Central Texas as our next system pushes into the region.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR prevails at all TAF sites as the lifting/scattering of
morning stratus overachieved this afternoon. SCT/BKN mid and high
clouds based near 6-8 kft are now sprinkled across North and
Central Texas terminals. Tonight, the low level jet will
strengthen in response to an approaching upper-level trough. As
low-level moisture is reinforced, MVFR cigs will spread across the
region again late tonight and continue through much of the day
Thursday. Could see brief IFR cigs, particularly across Central
Texas terminals including KACT. Confidence in how far north these
higher end IFR ceilings will spread is low, so did not include any
mention in Metroplex TAFs with this issuance. Also, opted to lean
slightly more pessimistic (in other words ceilings lowering
quicker) than guidance with overnight ceiling trends given the
amount of moisture already present in the lower levels. Ceilings
will be slow to improve, but VFR conditions are expected to return
by mid-afternoon. Otherwise, southerly winds will become
increasingly gusty through the afternoon with sustained wind
speeds up to 15-20 kts possible with gusts nearing 30 kts.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  80  69  83  69 /  10  10  40  80  10
Waco                68  80  69  79  70 /   0   5  10  70  10
Paris               65  79  67  76  68 /  20  10  30  80  30
Denton              67  79  67  83  68 /  10  10  60  70  10
McKinney            67  79  68  80  69 /  10  10  40  90  20
Dallas              68  80  69  82  70 /   5  10  30  80  20
Terrell             65  80  69  78  69 /   5   5  20  80  20
Corsicana           67  82  71  81  71 /   0   5  10  70  20
Temple              67  81  69  81  70 /   0   5  10  60  10
Mineral Wells       67  80  67  86  67 /  10  10  70  50   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$