000
FXUS64 KFWD 111926
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
226 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/
/Now through Friday Afternoon/

As the upper low that provided our earlier week rain chances
continues to advance into the deep south, upper level ridging will
begin to build in across the Central Plains. This will set the stage
for a tranquil end to the weekend. The post-frontal surface high
will slide through North and Central Texas later this afternoon.
As this high approaches the region through the afternoon, surface
winds will be on the increase in response to the tightened surface
pressure gradient. Even with ample sunshine, northerly winds will
keep afternoon high temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Wind speeds will quickly die down over this evening as the high
center moves overtop the CWA and the boundary layer begins to
decouple.

Tonight will be a good night for radiational cooling, as light
winds, dry conditions, and clear skies are expected. Expect
a slightly cooler-than-normal morning, with lows in the mid 40s
to low 50s. The surface high should be located in the Gulf of
Mexico by daybreak, bringing return flow to the region during the
overnight hours. With the aforementioned upper ridging building
in and southerly flow, expect a warm up going into Friday
afternoon. High temperatures will peak into the mid 70s to mid
80s. Skies should remain relatively clear through the first half
of the day, but by late afternoon a plume of cirrus will begin to
stream in from the west/southwest via the Subtropical Jet.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Night Onward/

Warm, slightly breezy, and rain-free conditions this weekend will be
followed by the next threat for severe weather Monday as we enter
the latter half of the month. The threat is highest across the
northwest as we`ll be contending with convection off of a Pacific
front/dryline, but will likely spread further into North and Central
Texas as the evening progresses. All modes of severe weather remain
possible at this time.

Saturday and Sunday will be fairly warm with highs in the 80s each
day. Locations west of U.S. 281 in the Big Country have a ~60-90%
chance of topping 90 degrees Sunday which is around 10 to 15 degrees
above normal. Although south winds will be established at the
surface, moisture will be slow to return for much of the weekend
which should result in pleasant, albeit warm conditions.

Moisture return will then increase late Sunday and Sunday night
with a wide swath of mid 60s dewpoints expected across the region
as low level flow strengthens. Height falls will then overspread
the area by early afternoon Monday as strong lee cyclogenesis
occurs across the Central Plains thanks to the approaching upper
level trough as it exits the Four Corners. This will set the stage
for strong to severe thunderstorms to initiate along a dryline to
the west, then translate eastward through the afternoon and into
the overnight hours. It`s still uncertain at this point if any
warm sector convection will be able to develop in our area prior
to this main activity along the dryline reaching North & Central
Texas, but we should remain capped for much of the day which will
greatly limit this potential. Timing inconsistencies will
influence how far west this initial convection develops, and thus
impact when/where exactly the severe threat ramps up in North &
Central TX.

After this main system shifts east, additional disturbances and
lingering moisture will result in an unsettled pattern again in the
mid to late week, with storm chances returning to the area late
Wednesday. Otherwise, warm temperatures will continue through the
period with highs approaching the 90s areawide by midweek.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period, with high level cirrus moving
across the region tomorrow morning. Occasionally gusty northerly
winds will persist through the afternoon at the airports, before
decreasing in speeds this evening. A surface high will move
through North and Central Texas tonight, shifting winds from N to
E, and then eventually returning all airports to southerly flow
just after midnight. Speeds will be light (< 5kts), and
potentially variable at times.

Wind speeds will perk up once again by mid-late tomorrow morning,
to around 15 kts with occasional higher gusts through the end of
the period.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    52  80  59  82  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                49  78  56  79  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               44  76  53  79  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              46  80  56  81  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            47  78  57  80  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              52  80  58  82  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             47  77  55  79  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           50  79  57  82  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              49  80  56  82  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       47  82  56  84  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$