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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KGGW 202011
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
211 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.DISCUSSION...

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KEY MESSAGES:

1) A return toward spring is expected the rest of this weekend as
a broad ridge pattern builds into the area this week.

2) Strong winds and near critical fire weather concerns come in
on Monday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

There is a surface high pressure system in place today, and a warm
day is expected on Sunday ahead of the next quick moving low
pressure system. Winds will be switching direction to the
northwest on Sunday night, with high (80 percent) confidence that
wind gusts will reach or exceed 40 mph on Monday. Very little
precipitation accumulation, if any, will be associated with this
disturbance. The combo of wind and lack of precipitation suggest
near critical fire weather conditions, so a Fire Weather Watch is
in place for the day Monday. Areas south of a line extending from
the Little Rockies to Culbertson are the most susceptible to fire
weather conditions.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Confidence is high for temperatures, low precipitation amounts,
and the general wind pattern. With regard to near critical fire
weather conditions moving into red flag criteria Sunday night
into Monday, moderate confidence exists. No departures were made
from the NBM at this time, but the focus will be on the accuracy
of wind forecast values Sunday through Monday night.

-Zanker/Stoinskers
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&&

.AVIATION...

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LAST UPDATED: 2030Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: High pressure has moved in, resulting in quiet flying
conditions through tonight with mostly clear skies and light
winds.

WIND: Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming light and variable
after 00Z, becoming south at 5 to 10 knots after 09Z, increasing
to 10 to 20 knots after 15Z.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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A strong cold front will move through the area late Sunday night
into Monday morning. Latest NBM model run suggests precipitation
probabilities will remain mainly north of the Missouri River, and
and that sustained wind speeds of 25 to 35 mph will be widespread
across the entire area. Over the past two weeks, Dawson, Prairie,
and Wibaux county have received around 25 percent of normal
precipitation, ERC values are around 60 percent in eastern MT.
Based on this, there is high (70 percent) confidence locations
south of a line from the Little Rockies to Culbertson will have
near critical conditions for fire weather on Monday. This is in
response to forecast winds reaching and/or exceeding RH values
during Monday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect
for Zones 122, 135, 136, and 137 on Monday.
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&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Southern
Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties-The Little Rockies-The
Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell
National Wildlife Refuge.
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&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow