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000
FXUS65 KGGW 122006
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
206 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- High temperatures well above normal through the weekend with a
  few isolated convective rain showers and thunderstorms.

- Pattern change next week, with much colder temperatures and
  mixed precipitation by Tuesday, then some snowfall potential
  through midweek.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Under an otherwise large and strong upper-level ridge of high
pressure, some subtle, embedded, short-wave disturbances will
give rise to some scattered rain showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms for limited locations across northeast Montana,
mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours over the next 3
days. A cold storm system from the Canadian Rockies will bring a
change in the weather pattern next week to our region, with some
late season winter weather impacts possible. Details are still
forthcoming, such as storm track and available moisture, but we
are beginning to message the chances for rain changing to snow
with snow accumulations possible by early Wednesday morning.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

With the rapid warming over the next few days, and already dry
conditions, fire weather concerns are on the increase, but the
spring green-up is well underway. Deep atmospheric mixing will
contribute to afternoon gusty winds, but will likely not be
widespread enough nor strong enough for critical fire weather
conditions.

Confidence is average/moderate on the evolution of next week`s
storm system, with a wide range of ensemble solutions for timing
and placement and amounts of precipitation. There is higher
confidence in a widespread wetting rain and lower confidence on
any impacts from late season snow accumulation occurring with the
focus currently centered on Wednesday. The higher elevations of
the Little Rocky Mountains of SW Phillips County could see greater
snowfall accumulations.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Dry conditions continue for the TAF sites scattered mid-
level clouds.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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