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780
FXUS65 KGGW 082018
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
218 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

.DISCUSSION...

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KEY MESSAGES:

- Steady rain becoming scattered, with wind less of a concern
  through late Thursday afternoon.

- Flooding concerns remain minimal as the ground has efficiently
  absorbed the rainfall we have observed. Stream and creeks have
  risen slightly, but not enough to cause any flooding concerns.

- There is high confidence for warmer than normal conditions
  this weekend into much of next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Today through Thursday night: Northeast Montana is on the
periphery of a low pressure system that continues to provide
enough forcing, along with daytime heating today and tomorrow, for
scattered showers to move through until late Thursday afternoon.
There is high (70 percent) confidence for locations in the
southwest portion of the GGW CWA to receive over one tenth of an
inch of rain, with the rest of the area likely to remain below
this threshold.

Friday onward: A warm up will occur this weekend as a positively
tilted ridge builds into the area. Although there is high (70
percent) confidence of dry weather occurring through early next
week, the GFS ensemble is hinting at a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms occurring from Sunday into early next week.
CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

High confidence exists on a warming trend this weekend, as
deterministic forecast highs in the 70s and lower 80s are
currently on the lower end of the ensemble ranges. There is low
confidence on the timing of precipitation probabilities late this
weekend.

-Stoinskers/Zanker
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&&

.AVIATION...

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LAST UPDATED: 2030Z

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: Low VFR/MVFR/IFR

DISCUSSION: MVFR and scattered IFR conditions due to low clouds
and scattered showers from the departing low pressure system are
expected to last through 03Z as ceilings begin to rise tonight.
The exception is KGDV, where there is low to moderate (30 to 50
percent) confidence of LIFR ceilings overnight before these
ceilings rise to VFR Thursday afternoon. Scattered showers will
continue through Thursday afternoon before ending, so there is
moderate (40 percent) confidence of MVFR conditions occurring
within rain showers.

WINDS: Northeast 15 to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts, becoming
north at 5 to 10 kts after 03Z, increasing to 10 to 15 kts after
15Z.
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&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow