-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
453
FXUS63 KGID 040851
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
351 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Dry weather expected this weekend with high temperatures in
  the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s this morning and Sunday
  morning.

- Another strong weather system will bring increasing chances
  for thunderstorms to the area Monday-Monday night. During the
  mid-afternoon to late evening hours, there will be the
  potential for severe storms...very large hail, damaging wind
  gusts, and isolated tornadoes will all be possible.

- Spotty low chances (20-30%) for precipitation continue in the
  forecast from Tuesday evening on through the work week, but
  confidence remains low at this point.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

This weekend...

Lingering showers are expected to depart the area to the east
before sunrise today. At the surface, high pressure is moving
into the central and northern Plains this morning with an area
of low pressure over the Pacific coast. The surface ridge will
be present through the weekend, while the surface low and
associated cold front will move over the Rockies by Sunday
afternoon. Aloft at 500 mb, an upper trough with continue
across the Plains today before an upper ridge moves over the
area tonight and Sunday. High temperatures today will be in the
low to mid-60s and just a bit warmer Sunday (in the mid- to
upper 60s). Low temperatures will fall quite a bit under the
ridge. Morning lows this morning and Sunday morning will be in
the 30s and 40s. There may even be some patchy frost north and
west of the tri-cities Sunday morning, but too isolated for any
formal product at this point.

Sunday night through Monday night...

By Sunday night, the low pressure to our west will intensify,
dropping a potent cold front south across the Rockies and
southwestern United States. This will rotate northeast into the
central Plains Monday, enhancing the mid-level jet as it pushes
against a strong ridge over the Great Lakes. Models indicate
thunderstorms potentially initiating over a dryline that is
progged over central NE/KS Monday afternoon. With high CAPE
values (2000+ J/kg, especially over the southern half of the
forecast area as well as along the dryline) and very strong deep
layer shear, severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday into
Monday evening. There is still a question as to how far east
will the dryline manage to be before storms initiate, whether it
is further west in our CWA or farther east (around Highway 281).
Wherever it sets up, the expectation is for very large hail
(possibly 2 inches in diameter or larger) and strong wind gusts
along and east of the dryline, and with higher values of SRH in
the model guidance, a few tornadoes may be possible as well.
Storms will potentially start out as supercells before
developing into a linear system later in the event. Most model
guidance has these storms pushing east of the forecast area by
shortly after midnight Monday night, but the ECMWF has them
linger into the early morning hours Tuesday. Monday will
definitely be a day to keep both eyes on the weather and to have
multiple ways to receive weather warnings.

Tuesday and on...

Tuesday through Friday, the forecast remains overall dry, but
there are a few small chances (20-30%) of precipitation. Behind
the trough Monday, low pressure will rotate northward into
Montana and the Dakotas Tuesday and Wednesday, with another
trough impacting the central Plains mid- to late week, although
the exact placement of the low and associated trough remains
uncertain. Pretty sure the area (or at least some portions of
it) will see some precipitation during this period but
uncertainty as to when remains high.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The EAR AWOS is currently OTS due to recent storms.
The EAR TAF is AMD NOT SKED until the weather clears to VFR or
the AWOS comes back online.. Ceilings around the area are
dropping to MVFR to IFR so dropped both TAF sites to MVFR as a
start. Ceilings should rise after sunrise and scatter out once
the cold front moves farther away from TAF sites. Winds will be
northerly overnight and a few isolated gusts into the 40-45kts
could be possible. Once storms move out of the area the winds
are expected to gradually taper down and look to become light
this evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Beda