163
FNUS75 KGJT 180853
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Spruce Creek Wildfire...USFS
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
253 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on May 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Another warm and dry day with temperatures running
almost 10 degrees above normal. Not as breezy as Friday but could
still see some gusts around 20 mph this afternoon. Clouds increase
later today as a system approaches from the west with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible over the neighboring
higher terrain. These storms over the mountains could produce
gusty outflow winds. Clouds decrease on Sunday with humidities
dropping into the mid teens.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent), becoming partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent) late this afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....63-68.
Min humidity........18-23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Downslope/downvalley winds 3 to 5 mph through
                    mid morning, then shifting to the southwest.
                    Increasing to 6 to 12 mph with occasional gusts
                    to 20 mph this afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor through mid morning, then good. Increasing
                    to very good by late morning before becoming
                    excellent in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......450 ft AGL increasing to 11900 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Variable 5 mph through mid morning, then
                    becoming west 5 to 10 mph. Shifting to the
                    southwest at 12 to 18 mph in the afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent) overnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....36-41.
Max humidity........47-52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 5 to 10 mph through 2200, then
                    shifting to the south. Becoming downslope/
                    downvalley at 3 to 5 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent then very good. Decreasing to poor
                    overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......9600 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 6 to 12 mph
                    overnight.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....60-65.
Min humidity........13-18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Downslope/downvalley winds 3 to 5 mph through
                    mid morning, then shifting to the southwest.
                    Increasing to 7 to 14 mph with occasional gusts
                    to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor through mid morning, then good. Increasing
                    to very good by late morning before becoming
                    excellent in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL increasing to 9300 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 mph through mid morning, then shifting
                    to the southwest at 12 to 18 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Megan Stackhouse
Requested by...Bill Ellis
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2414561.0/GJT
.DELDT 05/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL William.ellis2@usda.gov