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000
FXUS63 KGLD 192027
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
227 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain will develop tonight in northeast Colorado and
  adjacent areas of northwest Kansas. The rain will begin to mix
  with or change to snow in northeast Colorado by around
  midnight, and northwest Kansas during the overnight hours.
  Snow amounts will generally be less than one inch, though a
  localized band of 1 to 3 inches will be possible.

- Near to above average temperatures are forecast for Sunday and
  beyond. There could be daily small chances for rain/storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Weak disturbances in northern and southern streams are somewhat
phased and move across the forecast area tonight and Saturday.
Precipitation, which so far has not been reaching the ground,
will increase from west to east this evening, eventually
reaching the ground as the column saturates. Through about 06z,
expecting all rain, then a gradual changeover to snow first in
Colorado between 06z-09z, then in northwest Kansas between 09z
and 12z, then in the remainder of the area (north of Interstate
70) after 12z. Accumulating snow will be limited both by the
initial virga and by the slow changeover from rain. In this most
likely scenario, expecting generally less than one inch north of
Interstate 70 and west of Highway 25, highest amounts in
Colorado. There is a low probability, less than 10%, that the
changeover to snow occurs more quickly, which would result in
potentially a narrow band of 1 to 3 inches roughly along and
north of Interstate 70 from Colby westward. Rain and snow
continues through Saturday morning, then gradually tapering off
to rain and snow showers, mainly north of the Interstate
Saturday afternoon, ending Saturday night. Additional
precipitation amounts after about 15z will be very light. Lows
tonight will be in the low 30s and highs on Saturday in the
upper 30s to middle 40s with plenty of clouds. Wind will not be
a factor with this system.

Shortwave ridge will move across the area on Sunday resulting
in dry conditions and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will
rebound into the 60s for highs. Models now dry for Sunday night
with the shortwave staying well north of the area. Breezy south
winds with a developing low level jet may gust up to 40 mph at
times. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

On Monday, will see a shortwave trough and accompanying surface
cold front movie through the area during the day. Frontal timing
has slowed just a bit and will be located roughly along the
Interstate 70 corridor in the afternoon. May see scattered
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm develop along the
front through the evening hours. Instability forecasts are very
weak, less than 500 j/kg, so despite decent shear not expecting
any severe storms at this time. Highs will range from the lower
70s in northern areas with earlier frontal passage to the lower
80s in southern areas with a later passage. With those warm
temperatures ahead of the front, near critical to critical fire
weather conditions may develop. The best chances of that
happening will be south of Highway 40 and west of Highway 27 in
Kansas and Colorado. Relative humidity should drop to 15% or
less in those areas, but winds speeds only meet the 25 mph gust
criteria for a few hours. Low temperatures Monday night will be
in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

Tuesday will see an upper ridge build over the area from the
west. Low level upslope flow and a weak shortwave coming out of
Colorado may be enough for scattered showers Tuesday night, but
confidence is low. There is no instability to work with so no
storms are expected. High temperatures will be in the in the 60s
and lows in the middle 30s to around 40.

Wednesday, upper flow will turn southwest ahead of a shortwave
trough digging into the Four Corners region. A narrow corridor
of instability is forecast to develop near the Colorado and
Kansas border region, which combined with a weak shortwave
ejecting ahead of the main system may be enough for scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday night. High
temperatures will be in the 70s and lows in the 40s.

Thursday and Friday, the main shortwave will eject into the
central plains. Models not in good agreement with timing or
strength. GFS shows the a closed upper low over the area by
Thursday afternoon with a dry line/severe thunderstorms in the
east and wraparound moisture/wind in the west. ECMWF solution is
slower and weaker, with the main trough axis not reaching the
area until Friday and only weak embedded waves ahead of it. So
until the models can resolve their differences, will have a
chance of showers and thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday.
Highs will be in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR expected to prevail through this afternoon at both KGLD and
KMCK. Tonight, light rain will develop during the evening hours
in a narrow band centered around KGLD. Expect lowered ceiling
and minor visibility restrictions during that time. Overnight,
rain will mix with or change to light snow at KGLD, continuing
through Saturday morning, with IFR ceilings likely as well as
visibility restrictions. Precipitation will hold off at KMCK
until Saturday morning or possibly even Saturday afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024