Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000 FXUS63 KGLD 271735 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1135 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend begins today and continues over the weekend before the next system moves in, bringing precipitation chances and cooler temperatures. - Near critical fire weather conditions looking more likely for Sunday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 229 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Early this morning, a mid-level shortwave is moving over the northeastern CWA causing some snow showers. This will cause a dusting to maybe 0.5 inches of new snow in locations along and north of US 24 and east of Kansas highway 27. These snow showers and flurries will continue until around sunrise. By that time, the shortwave will have moved out of the area. Later today, the upper-level trough that has been impacting the region move out to the east as a ridge moves in. This will lead to more zonal then southwesterly flow giving us more clear skies. Surface winds will not mirror the winds aloft today. In the morning, winds will become northwesterly as the shortwave leaves the region. High temperatures will warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s, however locations that still have a large amount of snowpack could be slightly cooler. Most of the remaining snowpack will likely (~65%) melt away today. Scattered showers are possible early this afternoon, mainly south of US 24 in Kansas. In this area, the wind boundary will stall out and act as the forcing mechanism. Confidence in precipitation occurring is low, around 15%, primarily due to differing model guidance on mid- level moisture availability. Using a RAP sounding, if any showers were to form, they would be well elevated and with 400+ J/kg of CAPE, some lightning and thunder could occur. These showers or storms would start forming around 18Z and dissipate around 0Z. Overnight, lows will drop into the 20s as winds become southwesterly and the mostly clear skies lead to efficient cooling. The clear skies will give a jump start to the warming come Thursday when temperatures warm into the 60s, potentially even low 70s for the northwestern CWA. This does come with a cost; RH values will be in the upper teens leading to elevated fire weather conditions in the afternoon. Southerly winds gusting up to 25 kts cannot be ruled out, but the recent moisture will work to slightly reduce available fuels. By 0Z Friday, the upper-level ridge axis will be moving over the CWA leading to more mostly clear skies! The southwesterly breeze should help us stay in the 30s overnight Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 215 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Southwest flow aloft will be in place over the central plains Friday through Sunday ahead of trough located over the southwestern CONUS. A couple of embedded waves in the flow will bring low chances for light rain showers mainly in southwest Nebraska Friday night and again on Saturday night. Impacts, if any, appear minimal at this time. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s on Friday, cool slightly into the 50s and 60s on Saturday, then warming again on Sunday to the 60s and 70s. Afternoon relative humidity minimums will fall below 20 percent in west and southwest parts of the area both Friday and Sunday. However, wind gust spreads from the NBM shows higher percentile gusts of less 20 mph on Friday which would not meet critical fire weather criteria. The wind gust spread on Sunday is between 25 and 35 mph suggesting a risk of reaching critical fire weather criteria Sunday afternoon in the area south of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 25. For Monday and Tuesday, the western trough will finally emerge over the central plains bringing cooler temperatures, breezy conditions and a chance for rain and snow. Models are in poor agreement at this point with the details. Operational GFS is quite bullish with snow and wind because it cuts off a 500 mb low on Monday near the area. However, the ECMWF keeps the system an open wave and on a track further south which misses the area entirely. Ensembles support the ECMWF solution at this time, but confidence is low on whether or not this will bring another round of snow or graze the area as it moves just south. Either way, should see cooler temperatures both days, but how cold will ultimately depend on whether or not the precipitation is realized. For now, NBM mean has highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s both days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 1134 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail at both terminals throughout the 18Z TAF period. At GLD, light winds generally out of the west-northwest back to become south-southwesterly towards sunset. They`ll increase in magnitude to around 10-15 knots sustained after sunrise. At MCK, light and variable winds, generally south-southwesterly this afternoon back towards the south-southeast for a brief time around sunset this evening before returning southwesterly after midnight. Currently low confidence in development of LLWS at the MCK terminal for a brief period overnight, generally between 05-10Z; as such, have omitted from this TAF issuance but will continue to monitor.
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&& .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...CC

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