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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KGLD 230945
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
345 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next two days are forecast to see near average
  temperatures with small chances for showers/storms during the
  evening/overnight hours.

- Potential multi-hazard event is forecast Thursday. Most of the
  area has a chance for severe weather with large hail being the
  main threat. The other potential hazards with the system
  include critical fire weather conditions, high winds, and
  blowing dust, but these all have low confidence at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A bit cooler today with highs forecast to be in the 60`s and low
70`s in the wake of the front and with higher pressure over the
area. A mix of clouds and sun is forecast, though no precipitation
is expected until the evening hours when a shortwave moves through
the upper northwest flow. A few shower and storm could form over the
higher terrain in Eastern Colorado and travel east along the better
mid-level moisture. No hazards are expected other than a chance for
dry lightning if a storm can develop instead of just showers.
Otherwise, virga and light rain would move through. Showers could
linger through most of the night if they stay together across the
area, exiting the area to the east just before sunrise. Lows tonight
are forecast to be in the 30`s and 40`s.

Wednesday, a somewhat similar day is forecast with a mix of clouds
and sun and temperatures around 70. The cooler temperatures would
favor along and east of Highway 83 where thicker cloud cover is
possible with the lingering moisture from the prior day. In spite of
subtle ridging aloft, a more zonal/northwesterly flow could allow a
shortwave to move through and spark storms over higher terrain in
Eastern Colorado again. Severe weather is not expected, but any
storms that do form may have an easier time moving to the east if
low level moisture advection occurs as some guidance is suggesting.
The low level moisture advection would also bring a chance for some
fog across most of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska though stronger winds
and any convection may disrupt fog.

Thursday remains the interesting day with a chance of a multi-hazard
setup. It should be noted up front that the multi-hazard is low
chance. While upper ridging is forecast to be present over the area
early Thursday, an upper trough/low is forecast to move over the
Four Corners region and help develop a low pressure system in the
lee of the Rockies. The low is then forecast to push east near the
KS/CO border later in the day. The question is how far east will it
push and will there be any shifting north. This is some of the
variances that ensemble guidance is hinting at. The best case
scenario is a south and west track with the low not deepening too
much. In this case, the low would be sitting on the southwest border
of the area by the evening hours. The only likely hazard at that
point would be severe weather and it may only affect the southern
and eastern half of the area. The worst case scenario is a deep low
that races just east of the Tri-State border by the late afternoon
hours. In this scenario, most of Eastern Colorado and adjacent
counties would have critical fire weather conditions behind the
dryline. Strong to high winds would develop during the day and
blowing dust would be possible late in the afternoon until
precipitation began. Severe weather chances would decrease behind
the dryline, but would likely increase ahead of the dryline. The
most likely scenario is inbetween the two with severe weather
chances across most of the area, a limited area of critical fire
weather conditions generally south of I-70 and west of Highway 25,
some patchy blowing dust across parts of NW Kansas late in the
afternoon, and no high winds (though winds would still probably be
around 15 to 30 mph). Temperatures will depend on placement and
timing of the system, but 70`s favor along and north of I-70 and
80`s favor along and south of I-70.

In regards to confidence, confidence is currently moderate (40-60%)
that severe weather will occur somewhere in the area with large hail
as the primary threat (tornadoes and damaging winds would be
possible but much lower risk). The main uncertainty with the severe
weather is if a capping inversion will be present and hold through
the evening. Confidence is low for the other 3 potential hazards
(wind, dust, fire) with dust and fire also being limited in coverage
if they did occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 345 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Friday...as Thursdays storm moves from the Tri-State area in
the morning into South Dakota in the afternoon, we`ll experience
rather high chances (30%-70%) for wraparound showers and
thunderstorms. Additionally, we`ll have northwest winds gusting in
the 25 to 35 mph range. Overnight, we continue to have a 20%-50%
chance for showers and thunderstorms generally west of Highway 25 as
wraparound moisture remains. High temperatures in the middle 60s to
upper 70s seems reasonable per GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures. Low
temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Saturday...our attention now turns to another storm system that is
forecast to move from central Arizona in the morning into southern
Colorado by the end of the day then over the Tri-State area by
12z Sunday.

It appears that we`ll have increasing chances (40%-70%) for showers
and thunderstorms through the day as the storm system approaches
then 40%-60% chances for showers/thunderstorms overnight due to
wraparound precipitation on the backside of the storm.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s to middle 70s
with low temperatures in the middle 30s to middle 40s. Will need to
watch for the possibility of some snow across eastern Colorado after
midnight as GFS 850mb temperatures fall to around 0C to 2C.

Sunday...as Saturdays storm lifts northeast toward South
Dakota/Minnesota area during the day, we`ll have a 20%-40% chance
for wraparound showers and thunderstorms along with northwest winds
gusting 25 to 35 mph. Overnight, our precipitation chances come to
an end after midnight as the storm continues slowly moving away from
the area. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper
60s with low temperatures in the middle 30s to lower 40s.

Monday...500mb pattern features near zonal flow over the area with
low pressure systems off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and weak
troughing approaching the Mid Atlantic states. Dry weather is
currently forecast as moisture in the 850-500mb layer is rather low.
With GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures bouncing back into the 15C to
19C range, high temperatures should reach into the 70s to near 80,
close to the current NBM high temperature forecast. Low temperatures
look to be in the middle 40s to lower 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1003 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions continue to remain forecasted at each terminal.
LLWS is seen on GLD VAD wind and looks to continue through
sunrise via RAP forecast soundings. KMCK is forecast to see LLWS
around 09Z. Each of the LLWS is from a deepening surface low in
SE Colorado/ SW Kansas. HREF has been hinting at some stratus
moving south out of the Nebraska Panhandle; but think it should
begin to dissipate as it moves towards the KGLD terminal.  A
brief period of breezy winds sustained around 15 knots and then
weakening through the remainder of the afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Trigg