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000
FXUS63 KGLD 200819
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
219 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow showers are still expected across most of the
  area today. Precipitation is expected to decrease in coverage
  and intensity through the day. Any new snow accumulations are
  generally expected to be under an inch. Any new rain
  accumulations are expected to be under a quarter of an inch.

- Near to above average temperatures are forecast for Sunday and
  beyond. There could be daily small chances for rain/storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 216 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For the remainder of today, rain and snow shower are forecast for
locales mainly along and north of I-70. Current radar observations
show the precipitation slowly starting to shift north. This trend is
expected to continue through the morning, with the heaviest
precipitation generally along and north of Highway 36. This is based
on RAP guidance suggesting that the precipitation is based more on
isentropic lift with a lack of a surface boundary and lack of low to
mid level frontogenesis. The best conditions are forecast to
continue to gradually shift north through the morning with more
intermittent conditions along and south of I-70. Snow still looks to
generally be confined to north of I-70 and west of Highway 27 based
on temperature observations. With weak cold air advection and
persistent cloud cover, temperatures likely won`t drop much across
the area the remainder of this morning and remain in the 30`s.
Conversely, the persistent cloud cover through the day will hinder
how high temperatures will get during the day similar to yesterday.
As long as the cloud cover doesn`t break, most of the area will warm
only into the upper 30`s to mid 40`s. For precipitation amounts, the
consensus is around another tenth or two across the snow area with
the rest of the area seeing up to a tenth of an inch. Snow should
taper off by the early afternoon hours as temperatures warm just
enough to melt most of the snow that falls.

Tonight, cloud cover is forecast to linger through most of the night
with a lack of air mass change and dry air to clear the moisture.
While winds are forecast to be relatively calm, the cloud cover and
dewpoints around 30 will help keep temperatures in the lower to mid
30`s.

Tomorrow, the upper pattern is forecast to begin changing with more
ridging over the area. This will allow the area to warm up to near
average temperatures in the low 60`s. If the cloud cover clears
early in the morning, mid to upper 60`s would become more likely.
Precipitation remains unlikely with high pressure over the area and
relatively drier air forecast to move in through the day.

Monday, a cut-off low is forecast to rotate around the larger low in
Eastern Canada. This will help a surface low pressure system develop
across the Plains. The southern part is forecast to cut off from the
rest of the Plains and deepen slightly along the KS/CO border. With
the low forecast to keep southwesterly flow over the area, warm air
will be able to advect into the area and allow for temperatures to
warm into the 70`s and maybe even some low 80`s. Another thing for
Monday will be to watch for some chances for thunderstorms. While
drier air is forecast to move in on Sunday, some low level moistures
is forecast to linger in the Panhandles region. If the low doesn`t
move too far south, some of that moisture could be pulled into the
area and develop storms along a surface convergence zone associated
with the low. Severe weather chances currently look to be low with
less than 1000 J/KG of CAPE and potential capping (though a boundary
could overcome the cap).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

On Monday, will see a shortwave trough and accompanying surface
cold front movie through the area during the day. Frontal timing
has slowed just a bit and will be located roughly along the
Interstate 70 corridor in the afternoon. May see scattered
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm develop along the
front through the evening hours. Instability forecasts are very
weak, less than 500 j/kg, so despite decent shear not expecting
any severe storms at this time. Highs will range from the lower
70s in northern areas with earlier frontal passage to the lower
80s in southern areas with a later passage. With those warm
temperatures ahead of the front, near critical to critical fire
weather conditions may develop. The best chances of that
happening will be south of Highway 40 and west of Highway 27 in
Kansas and Colorado. Relative humidity should drop to 15% or
less in those areas, but winds speeds only meet the 25 mph gust
criteria for a few hours. Low temperatures Monday night will be
in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

Tuesday will see an upper ridge build over the area from the
west. Low level upslope flow and a weak shortwave coming out of
Colorado may be enough for scattered showers Tuesday night, but
confidence is low. There is no instability to work with so no
storms are expected. High temperatures will be in the in the 60s
and lows in the middle 30s to around 40.

Wednesday, upper flow will turn southwest ahead of a shortwave
trough digging into the Four Corners region. A narrow corridor
of instability is forecast to develop near the Colorado and
Kansas border region, which combined with a weak shortwave
ejecting ahead of the main system may be enough for scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday night. High
temperatures will be in the 70s and lows in the 40s.

Thursday and Friday, the main shortwave will eject into the
central plains. Models not in good agreement with timing or
strength. GFS shows the a closed upper low over the area by
Thursday afternoon with a dry line/severe thunderstorms in the
east and wraparound moisture/wind in the west. ECMWF solution is
slower and weaker, with the main trough axis not reaching the
area until Friday and only weak embedded waves ahead of it. So
until the models can resolve their differences, will have a
chance of showers and thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday.
Highs will be in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1031 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

GLD: IFR-LIFR conditions associated with low ceilings and/or
precipitation (snow) will prevail through Saturday morning.
Improvement to MVFR will likely not occur until Saturday
afternoon (~21 UTC).. and conditions may deteriorate in
association with low stratus and/or fog after sunset Saturday
evening. 5-10 knot NE winds will veer to the E overnight,
further veering to the SE and increasing to 10-15 knots during
the day on Saturday.

MCK: VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR by sunrise
(09-12Z) and further deteriorate to IFR thereafter (12-14Z)..
as low ceilings and light precipitation (RA/SN) overspread the
region. While some improvement to MVFR may occur during the
late afternoon (21-23Z).. conditions may deteriorate (in
association with low stratus and/or fog) after sunset Saturday
evening. Winds will remain light through the TAF period..
veering from NE to E overnight.. further veering to the SE
during the day on Saturday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BV