Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240938
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
338 AM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some dangerous fire weather conditions possible Today.

- Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
  damaging winds and even an isolated tornado, may develop this
  afternoon into the early evening.

- Very strong north winds expected in the wake of an Arctic cold
  frontal passage late this afternoon and evening.

- Accumulating snow and blowing snow tonight into Monday
  morning.

- Dangerous travel conditions likely along the I-70 corridor in
  far northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado late today into
  Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM MDT Sun Mar 243 2024

Across the region this morning, after some showers over portions of
the area earlier this evening, mainly clear skies persist except
over locales along/east of Highway 83. With a low pressure system
and associated boundaries over portions of the CWA, temps/winds as
of 200 AM MDT are ranging widely. Currently 20s and 30s for portions
of the NW CWA while 40s are elsewhere. Those seeing higher
temperatures have a southerly flow with gusts in spots up to 20-25
mph at times. Colder areas are seeing a northerly flow.

The latest RAP40 500mb analysis and mid level water vapor imagery
are showing a flattens ridge shifting eastward allowing for SW flow
aloft. This is ahead of a broad trough digging into the western
portion of the country.

The main wx concerns for the short term period will focus on the
aforementioned surface low initially, then work in tandem with
850/700 mb support later tonight into Monday. A wide range of wx
will impact the area from severe wx initially, to high winds and
extreme wintry wx tonight into Monday.

Based on current short term guidance/CAMs, the low currently over
eastern Colorado will shift east into western Kansas later today.
Gradient expected to increase as the day progresses, creating gusts
up to 30-40 mph. Areas ahead of the low and accompanying front will
see some potential elevated fire wx, mainly south of I-70. Guidance
has improved RH values over the past couple days, so do not expect
criteria to be reached to warrant red flag conditions, but should be
monitored nonetheless, as there is and Elevated Risk Fire Outlook
from the SPC.

By the afternoon hours southerly flow/increased moisture will pick
up for east/central locales, creating instability as convection
starts to form. Increased cloud cover could hamper conditions some,
but SPC has increased the Slight Risk area for severe wx a bit
further westward closer to the Colorado border. MUCape values east
jump to 400-900 j/kg by the afternoon, DCape around 200-300 j/kg.
SPC enhanced stretching potential peaks in the afternoon along a
front extending through the CWA. Large hail parameter is high as
well. SPC does have the CWA with the potential for large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornado potential as a result. The
timeframe for this will be from the mid afternoon hours into the
early evening.

As the low shifts east through the day, winds on the backside will
become northerly and increase sharply due to high pressure rises.
guidance still showing the potenital for gusts to approach 55-65 mph
overnight into Monday. A 700/850mb low will traverse the northern
CWA this evening/overnight. Strongest frontogenesis, especially at
the 850 level will help to enhance snowfall as it changes over from
rain from the afternoon/early evening from west to east. Based on
the positioning of the 700/850 lows, the best chances for
accumulating snows have increased by several inches north of the
Interstate. With the increased snowfall potential and steady
guidance showing high winds, have issued a Blizzard Warning for most
zones along/north of I-70. There is a Winter Wx Advisory elsewhere,
but may need to be upgraded later depending of the track of the
surface low. Basically starting around 06z Monday. Amounts ranging
from 3-7 inches north, to 1-3 inches south. The changeover will be
slow as some trw/rw will persist east, but all areas cold enough by
12z Monday.

Monday, winds will persist through much of the morning hours and
taper through the afternoon from west to east. Looking for precip to
taper off in tandem. These winds will keep the potential for blowing
snow over the area through the day. High pressure nosing south
behind the exiting low will reinforce the CAA over the area giving
the CWA a below normal day for temps, with a slight increase Tuesday
as it begins to shift east. Continued clearing and dry for Tuesday
as high pressure becomes dominant features going into midweek.

For temps, looking for a wide range for daytime highs today and will
be dependent on the speed of the front coming through, and cloud
cover ahead of it. Looking for a range today in upper 50s to around
70F. Going into Monday, colder with a range in the lower to mid 30s,
and for Tuesday, upper 30s to upper 40s.

Overnight lows tonight will range in the mid teens west through the
mid 20s east. Monday night, colder with single numbers to lower
teens above zero west into the mid teens east. And for Tuesday
night, upper teens to mid 20s expected. Wind chill readings for the
overnight periods will range in the single numbers above/below zero
tonight, the single numbers below zero Monday night and mainly lower
to mid teens above zero for Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Upper ridge will move across the area Wednesday and Thursday
resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the 50s and highs on Thursday will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. May see fire weather concerns on
Thursday west of Highway 83 as relative humidity drops into the
teens and southwesterly winds gust 20 to 30 mph. On Thursday and
Friday, will be under southwest flow aloft between a trough
digging into the southwest CONUS and the ridge to the east.
Cannot rule out a stray shower with any weak embedded wave, but
looks mostly dry. Temperatures continue above normal with highs
in the 60s and 70s. Fire weather may continue to be a concern
both days with low humidity and wind gusts approaching 25 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through 10z
with winds from the south, gusting to around 30kts. From
11z-16z, sub VFR conditions are expected under stratus and maybe
some fog...winds continue from the south, gusting up to 30kts.
From 17z-23z, southerly winds continue gusting up to 25kts with
VFR conditions expected. After 00z, easterly winds around 11kts
at 00z shift to the north, increasing in speed through the rest
of the taf period, peaking with gusts around 40kts.
Thunderstorms will be possible from 00z-03z with a rain/snow mix
and stratus currently forecast around 03z, then all snow with
blowing snow and sub VFR conditions continuing through the rest
of the taf period.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through 08z
with winds from the east-southeast, gusting 25-30kts. From
09z-22z, sub VFR cigs are expected with maybe some fog...winds
continue from the southeast gusting 25-30kts. From 23z-01z, sub
VFR cigs continue with an easterly wind gusting to 25kts.
Thunderstorms will be possible. From 01z-02z, VFR conditions are
anticipated with thunderstorms near the terminal. After 03z, sub
VFR conditions return was winds shift to the north, gusting up
to 35kts. Precipitation type will begin as liquid with
thunderstorms possible, changing over to a rain/snow mix after
about 05z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Blizzard Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to
     midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday night for KSZ001>003-013-
     014.
     High Wind Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to
     noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ027-041-042.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday to
     midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday night for KSZ004-015-016-
     027>029-041-042.
CO...Blizzard Warning from midnight tonight to midnight MDT Monday
     night for COZ090-091.
     High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon MDT Monday
     for COZ092.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Monday to midnight MDT
     Monday night for COZ092.
NE...Blizzard Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to
     midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday night for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99


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