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000
FXUS63 KGLD 181951
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
151 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is likely Friday night and Saturday morning for
  areas north of Interstate 70 in Colorado and north of
  Interstate 70 and west of Highway 27 in Kansas and Nebraska.
  An inch or two of wet snow will be possible in those areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Zonal flow is in place across the central CONUS with both the
polar and subtropical jets active. Tonight, will see another
weak wave move through bringing a chance for very light rain or
snow showers to northeast Colorado and eastward along the
Kansas and Nebraska border area. Similar to last night,
measurable precipitation and impacts will be minimal. Low
temperatures will be in the 30s. The very light precipitation
chances will linger in the same area through the day Friday with
mostly cloudy skies north of the Interstate but some sun
possible in the afternoon south. High temperatures will range
from the lower 50s where clouds persist in the north to the
lower 60s to the south. Friday night, will see increasing
chances for rain and snow with some phasing of disturbances in
the northern and southern streams combined with upslope flow at
the surface. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow by
around 06z in northeast Colorado and about as far east as
Highway 25 in Kansas and Nebraska during the overnight hours and
into Saturday morning. Snow amounts continue to increase and
now expecting 1 to 2 inches in those areas by Saturday morning.
Rain and snow chances will begin to diminish Saturday afternoon
then ending Saturday night. Temperatures will be much below
normal with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

On Sunday will get a break from the precipitation with an upper
ridge axis moving through. Highs will recover to the 60s to near
70 in northeast Colorado. Another weak wave will move through
Sunday night as the ridge moves out, with a chance for light
rain showers north of Interstate 70. It will also be breezy
Sunday night as a southerly low level jet develops. Low
temperatures will be in the 40s.

For Monday and Tuesday, zonal flow will transitioning back to
northwest flow ahead of a ridge building over the Rockies on
Tuesday. Models show some light showers/isolated thunderstorms
both days, but confidence is rather low. Instability is
minimal on Monday afternoon and near zero on Tuesday. There does
appear to be a weak wave on Monday in the zonal flow as well as
a cold front early in the day, which may trigger a few showers
or isolated storms, but hard to find anything on Tuesday with
the building ridge. Highs will be in the 70s on Monday then 60s
on Tuesday behind the weak front. Lows will be in the 30s and
40s.

On Wednesday, will transition to a southwesterly flow aloft
ahead of the next trough digging into the Desert Southwest.
Energy ejecting ahead of that system across the plains will
result in chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms during
the afternoon and evening. There is a sliver of instability
during the afternoon currently forecast to be along the
Colorado and Kansas border area, with around 500 j/kg of SBCAPE
and deep layer shear of around 40 kts, suggesting a possible low
end severe risk. It is still several days out and confidence in
those kind of details is lacking at this point. High
temperatures will bounce back into the 70s and lows will be in
the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Northeast surface winds will gradually decrease through
the afternoon becoming light and variable tonight. Mid clouds
will be slow to erode.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024